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A Time Series Forecasting Analysis on the Monthly Stocks of Rice in the Philippines

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Submitted By keij04
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A Time Series Forecasting Analysis on the Monthly Stocks of Rice in the Philippines

A Research Paper Presented To
Dr. Cesar Rufino
Of the
Department of Economics
School of Economics
De La Salle University, Manila

In Partial Fulfillment of the Course Requirements in
Economic Forecasting (ECOFORE)
Term 3 AY 2014-2015

Submitted by:

Jayme, Kevin Matthew D.

April 24 2015

0

I.

Introduction

The Philippines has been the accredited as an agricultural nation that provides different types of agricultural related goods, both for the domestic and international market. Rice has been the staple food in the Philippine to 80% of the population as it is customary diet that has been in beaded in the Philippine culture (Drilon Jr., 2012). Despite the strong history of agriculture and the skills and weather condition perfect for growth of rice, decrease of land and increase of total population around the Philippines decrease the opportunity for the population to have access to rice. In addition, neighboring countries, such as Thailand and Vietnam, had been on the rise of rice exportation. Not to mention the implementation of the ASEAN integration is happening in 2015. This means that the Philippines is lagging behind as it is the
8th largest exporters of rice in the world (Tiongco & Francisco, 2011).
Institution, such as International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), has gone into research and development of rice growth in different conditions and situation that would bring sufficient rice for domestic and export consumption. With this idea in mind on the relevance of rice in the country, it is no wonder why government and different research institutions are keen to the information and data on rice production and inventory. Total rice inventory is relevant data that tells how much rice that the nation has and how much rice can be used for

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