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BRIEFING NOTE

Consumer price indices
January 2012
Date: 14 February 2012 Coverage: United Kingdom Theme: The Economy

CONTENTS
SUMMARY CPI SUMMARY CPI RECORDS CPI DETAILED BRIEFING RPI SUMMARY RPI RECORDS RPI DETAILED BRIEFING RECONCILIATION OF CPI AND RPI RPI MISCELLANEOUS DATA OUTLOOK 2 3 6 7 28 29 30 38 39 40

This note is produced as background briefing for the Consumer Price Indices Statistical Bulletin. Users who require authoritative figures should use the Consumer Price Indices Statistical Bulletin or CPI and RPI Detailed Reference Tables.

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 2

SUMMARY
Consumer Prices Index (CPI)
The Government's inflation target for the United Kingdom is defined in terms of the CPI measure of inflation. From April 2011, the CPI is also being used for the indexation of benefits, tax credits and public service pensions. The CPI is an internationally comparable measure of inflation and is used to compare inflation rates across the European Union. • • • • • • • •

The all items CPI is 121.1, down from 121.7 in December. The all items CPI annual rate is 3.6%, down from 4.2% in December. The annual rate for CPI excluding indirect taxes, CPIY, is 3.6%, up from 2.8% last month. The annual rate for CPI at constant tax rates, CPI-CT, is 3.4%, up from 2.6% last month. The CPI all goods index is 117.1, down from 117.8 in December. The CPI all goods index annual rate is 3.5%, down from 4.2% last month. The CPI all services index is 126.0, down from 126.5 in December. The CPI all services index annual rate is 3.6%, down from 4.2% last month.

Retail Prices Index (RPI)
The RPI is used for a variety of purposes including indexation of index-linked gilts. Historically the RPI has also been used for indexation of pensions and state benefits. • • • • • • • • • • •

The all items RPI is 238.0, down from 239.4 in December. The all items RPI annual rate is 3.9%, down from 4.8% last month. The annual rate for RPIX, the all items excluding mortgage interest payments (MIPs) index is 4.0%, down from 5.0% last month. The all goods index is 186.7, down from 188.0 in December. The all goods index annual rate is 4.1%, down from 5.4% last month. The all services index is 317.3, down from 319.3 in December. The all services index annual rate is 5.0%, down from 5.8% last month. The annual rate for RPIY, the all items excluding MIPs and indirect taxes index is 4.2%, up from 3.7% last month. The Seasonally Adjusted RPIY (SARPIY) annual rate is 4.3%, up from 3.8% last month. The Tax and Price Index (TPI) for January is 212.8, down from 214.1 in December. The TPI annual rate is 3.6%, down from 4.5% in December.

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 3

CPI SUMMARY
CONTRIBUTIONS TO CHANGE IN THE CPI ANNUAL RATE

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.4 1.9 -4.9 0.2 -2.2 0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.03 -0.11 0.04 -0.05 -0.03 -0.28 -0.04 0.03 -0.16 0.02

CPI COICOP DIVISIONS

2011

10000: Food and non-alcoholic beverages 20000: Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 30000: Clothing and footwear 40000: Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 50000: Furniture, household equipment and maintenance 60000: Health 70000: Transport 80000: Communication 90000: Recreation and culture 100000: Education 110000: Restaurants and hotels 120000: Miscellaneous goods and services

118 42 62 129 61 24 159 26 147 18 120 94

112 42 65 144 61 24 162 27 134 19 114 96

-0.1 4.6 -5.9 0.6 -1.9 0.8 1.0 1.3 -0.2 1.3 -0.3

Large downward effects came from: • Transport, where prices, overall, fell by 0.7 per cent between December and January this year compared with an increase of 1.0 per cent between the same two months a year ago. The largest downward effects came from fuels & lubricants, the purchase of new cars and vehicle maintenance & repair. In each case, prices rose between December and January this year but by less than between the same two months a year ago: fuels & lubricants: prices rose by 0.5 per cent between December and January this year compared with a record increase (for a December to January period) of 4.4 per cent a year ago;

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 4

purchase of new cars: prices rose by 0.1 per cent between December and January this year compared with an increase of 2.4 per cent a year ago (the second largest rise between any two months); and vehicle maintenance & repair: prices rose by 0.3 per cent between December and January this year compared with an increase of 2.9 per cent a year ago (the second largest rise between any two months). The increase in VAT in January 2011 contributed to the sharper price rises for these transport costs between December 2010 and January 2011; in addition, an increase in fuel duty and the rising price of crude oil also pushed up the prices of fuels & lubricants last year. Partially offsetting these downward contributions was an upward effect from air transport where fares fell by less than a year ago for long haul and domestic routes. • Restaurants & hotels, where prices, overall, were little changed between December and January this year compared with a record increase (between any two months) of 1.3 per cent a year ago. The downward contribution was driven by restaurants & cafes where although most products had downward effects, the largest came from alcoholic beverages. The VAT increase in January 2011 was a significant factor in the record price rise for restaurants & hotels between December 2010 and January 2011;



Alcoholic beverages & tobacco: prices, overall, rose by 1.9 per cent between December and January this year compared with a 4.6 per cent increase a year ago (the second largest rise between any two months). The largest downward effects came from tobacco and spirits where, for both, prices rose between December and January this year but by less than between the same two months a year ago: tobacco: prices rose by 0.1 per cent between December and January this year compared with an increase of 2.9 per cent a year ago (the second largest rise for a December to January period) spirits: prices rose by 6.8 per cent between December and January this year compared with a record increase (between any two months) of 13.5 per cent a year ago

The VAT increase in January 2011 was a significant factor in the sharper price rises for alcoholic beverages and tobacco between December 2010 and January 2011.

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 5



Housing & household services, where prices, overall, rose by 0.2 per cent between December and January this year compared with an increase of 0.6 per cent a year ago. There were small downward effects from electricity and gas where charges were unchanged between December and January this year but rose a year ago. There was also a small downward effect from materials related to the maintenance & repair of the dwelling where prices rose this year between December and January but by less than a year ago (largely due to the VAT increase in January 2011 pushing up prices last year); and



Communication, where prices, overall, fell by 0.3 per cent between December and January this year compared with an increase of 1.3 per cent a year ago. There were small downward effects from charges for landline, cable and mobile telephones.

Large upward effects came from: • Financial services, where prices, overall, rose by 0.7 per cent between December and January this year compared with a fall of 2.4 per cent a year ago. The largest upward effect came from bank overdraft charges which were unchanged between December and January this year but fell by 12.8 per cent a year ago; • Clothing & footwear, where the January sales were less deep in 2012 compared with 2011 as prices, overall, fell by 4.9 per cent between December and January this year compared with a fall of 5.9 per cent a year ago. This follows, though, deeper sales in December 2011 compared with December 2010 where prices fell by 2.8 per cent between November and December 2011 compared with a fall of 1.9 per cent between the same months in 2010. When taking the price movement between November and January the fall of 7.5 per cent this year is very similar to the fall of 7.6 per cent over the same period last year. There were upward effects from garments, other articles of clothing & clothing accessories and footwear including repairs; and • Recording media, where prices, overall, fell by 5.4 per cent between December and January this year compared with a fall of 8.8 per cent a year ago. The largest upward effects came from DVDs and CDs bought via the internet.

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 6

CPI RECORDS
All items CPI Annual rate +3.6%, down from +4.2% last month Lowest since November 2010 (+3.3%) Annual rate +2.6%, down from +3.0% last month All items CPI exc energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Also +2.6% in July 2010 Last lower in November 2009 (+1.9%) Annual rate +4.0%, down from +5.8% last month Lowest since October 2009 (+3.5%) Annual rate +3.5%, down from +4.2% last month All goods Also +3.5% in December 2010 Last lower in November 2010 (+2.9%) Annual rate +3.6%, down from +4.2% last month All services Also +3.6% in July 2010 Last lower in May 2010 (+3.4%)

Transport

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 7

CPI DETAILED BRIEFING
• Weights are specified as parts per 1000 in the CPI.

01 FOOD & NONALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
01 Food & non-alcoholic beverages

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.4

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.03

118

112

-0.1

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to non-alcoholic beverages and food.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -0.4 -1.0 -0.4 2.4 -0.7 1.5 -4.8 0.7 2.5 -0.9

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.5 -0.7 0.1 1.6 -0.5 -1.3 -5.2 -0.3 1.3 -0.6

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -

01.1 Food
01.1 Food 01.1.1 Bread and cereals 01.1.2 Meat 01.1.3 Fish 01.1.4 Milk, cheese and eggs 01.1.5 Oils and fats 01.1.6 Fruit 01.1.7 Vegetables including potatoes 01.1.8 Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery 01.1.9 Food products not elsewhere covered

2011

103 17 22 4 15 2 12 16 12 3

98 17 22 4 14 2 9 15 12 3

• • •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to vegetables including potatoes; sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery and oils and fats. Partially offset by meat and fruit.

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 8

Meat
• • • Small upward effect. Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for pork chops. Partially offset by a small downward contribution from frozen chicken nuggets, where prices fell this year by more than a year ago.

Oils and fats
• • Small downward effect. Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for margarine/low fat spread.

Fruit
• • • Small upward effect. Due to upward contributions from bananas and grapes. Partially offset by strawberries. Bananas Grapes Strawberries • • • • • • Small upward effect. Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago. Small upward effect. Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago. Small downward effect. Prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago.

Vegetables including potatoes
• • • Small downward effect. Due to pre-packed salad. Partially offset by cauliflower. Pre-packed salad Cauliflower • • • • Small downward effect. Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago. Small upward effect. Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago.

Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery
• • • Small downward effect. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for chocolate bars. Partially offset by a small upward contribution from boxes of chocolates, where prices rose this year by more than a year ago.

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 9

01.2 Non-alcoholic beverages
01.2 Non-alcoholic beverages 01.2.1 Coffee, tea and cocoa 01.2.2 Mineral waters, soft drinks and juices • •

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 2.2 1.2 2.6

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.8 1.1 0.6

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.02 -0.02

15 4 11

14 4 10

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to mineral waters, soft dinks and juices; where prices overall rose by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from both packs and bottles of cola flavoured drink, fresh orange juice and packs of bottled fruit drinks.



Partially offset by a small upward contribution from fruit juice other than orange, where prices rose this year but fell a year ago.

02 ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO
02 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 4.6

1 month % change Jan 2012 1.9

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.11

42

42

• • •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to tobacco and alcoholic beverages. The VAT increase in January 2011 was a significant factor in the sharper price rises for alcoholic beverages and tobacco between December 2010 and January 2011.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 6.7 13.5 4.9 2.9

1 month % change Jan 2012 4.2 6.8 3.9 1.6

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.05 -0.03 -0.01 -0.01

02.1 Alcoholic Beverages
02.1 Alcoholic beverages 02.1.1 Spirits 02.1.2 Wine 02.1.3 Beer

2011

19 5 9 5

18 5 9 4

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to spirits, wine and beer.

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 10

Spirits
• • Small downward effect. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for whisky and vodka.

Wine
• • • Small downward effect. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from champagne. Partially offset by a small upward contribution from European red wine, where prices rose this year but fell a year ago.

Beer
• • Small downward effect. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for large packs of canned lager.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 2.9

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.1

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.06

02.2 Tobacco
02.2 Tobacco

2011

23

24

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with downward contributions coming from all types of cigarettes.

03 CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR
03 Clothing and footwear

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -5.9

1 month % change Jan 2012 -4.9

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.04

62

65

• •

Largest upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to clothing and, to a lesser extent, footwear.

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Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -5.9 -6.3 -3.9 1.6

1 month % change Jan 2012 -5.1 -5.4 -1.3 0.3

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.02 0.01 0.01 -

03.1 Clothing
03.1 Clothing 03.1.2 Garments 03.1.3 Other clothing and clothing accessories 03.1.4 Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing

2011

54 49 4 1

56 52 3 1

• •

Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to garments and other clothing and clothing accessories.

Garments
• • Small upward effect. Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, with upward contributions coming from women’s outerwear, men’s outerwear and children’s outerwear, with the main upward effects coming from women’s jackets and trousers, men’s casual shirts and boy’s branded sports tops. • Partially offset by small downward contributions from women’s coats, formal skirts, blouses and long sleeved tops and men’s jumpers/sweatshirts.

Other clothing and clothing accessories
• • Small upward effect. Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago.

03.2 Footwear including repairs
03.2 Footwear including repairs

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 -3.5

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.01

8

9

-5.6

• •

Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from children’s branded training shoes.

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04 HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS
04 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.2

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.05

129

144

0.6

• • •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling; and, electricity, gas and other fuels. Partially offset by actual rentals for housing.

04.1 Actual rentals for housing
04.1 Actual rentals for housing

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.3

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.3

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.01

57

64

• •

Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. The upward contribution is due to weight changes in 2012. Average rental charges overall rose by 0.3 per cent between December and January this year and last year. However as the weight for actual rentals for housing increased between 2011 and 2012, the rise in 2012 has had more of an upward effect on the CPI index.

04.3 Regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling
04.3 Regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling 04.3.1 Materials for maintenance and repair 04.3.2 Services for maintenance and repair

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.4 0.6 -

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.03 -0.02 -0.01

18 11 7

14 8 6

1.8 1.9 1.6




Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to materials for maintenance and repair; and services for maintenance and repair.

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 13

Materials for maintenance and repair
• • Small downward effect. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, largely due to the VAT increase in January 2011 pushing up prices last year.

Services for maintenance and repair
• • Small downward effect. Prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago.

04.4 Other services related to the dwelling
04.4 Other services related to the dwelling 04.4.1 Water supply 04.4.3 Sewerage collection

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -

1 month % change Jan 2012 -

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -

10 5 5

10 5 5



Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels
04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels 04.5.1 Electricity 04.5.2 Gas 04.5.3 Liquid fuels 04.5.4 Solid fuels

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.7 0.8 0.9 -2.0 0.9

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.2 0.1

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 0.01 -

44 19 22 2 1

56 20 32 3 1

• • •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to electricity and gas. Partially offset by liquid fuels.

Electricity
• • Small downward effect. Average bills were unchanged this year but rose a year ago.

Gas
• • Small downward effect. Average gas bills were unchanged this year but rose a year ago. There was also a small downward contribution from butane gas, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.
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Liquid fuels
• • Small upward effect. Kerosene prices rose this year but fell a year ago.

05 FURNITURE, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
05 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 -2.2

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.03

61

61

-1.9

• • •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to furniture, furnishing and carpets; and, goods and services for routine maintenance. Partially offset by tools and equipment for house and garden.

05.1 Furniture, furnishings and carpets
05.1 Furniture, furnishings and carpets 05.1.1 Furniture and furnishings 05.1.2 Carpets and other floor coverings

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -4.2 -4.9 -1.6

1 month % change Jan 2012 -5.5 -5.5 -5.4

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.02 -0.02

23 18 5

20 16 4

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to carpets and other floor coverings, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for tufted carpet.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -2.9

1 month % change Jan 2012 -2.7

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -

05.2 Household textiles
05.2 Household textiles

2011

8

7



Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

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05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs
05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs 05.3.1/2 Major appliances and small electric goods 05.3.3 Repair of household appliances

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 -1.1 -1.2 0.1

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -

9 8 1

9 8 1

-1.3 -1.6 0.8



Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

05.4 Glassware, tableware and household utensils
05.4 Glassware, tableware and household utensils

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.4

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -

5

5

-0.4



Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

05.5 Tools and equipment for house and garden
05.5 Tools and equipment for house and garden

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 1.5

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.01

6

5

-0.1

• •

Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for light bulbs.

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05.6 Goods and services for routine maintenance
05.6 Goods and services for routine maintenance 05.6.1 Non-durable household goods 05.6.2 Domestic services and household services

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.2 -0.7 0.1

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.02 -0.02 -

10 6 4

15 6 9

2.1 3.0 0.6

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to non-durable household goods, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for bleach.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.8

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.7

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -

06 HEALTH
06 Health

2011

24

24



Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

06.1 Medical products, appliances and equipment
06.1 Medical products, appliances and equipment 06.1.1 Pharmaceutical products 06.1.2/3 Other medical and therapeutic equipment

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 1.1 1.4 0.7

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -

11 6 5

10 6 4

1.5 2.1 0.6



Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

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Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.6 0.7 0.5

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.1 0.1 -

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -

06.2 Out-patient services
06.2 Out-patient services 06.2.1/3 Medical and paramedical services 06.2.2 Dental services

2011

4 2 2

5 3 2



Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.1

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.7

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.01

06.3 Hospital services
06.3 Hospital Services

2011

9

9

• •

Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Charges overall rose this year by more than a year ago.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 1.0

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.7

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.28

07 TRANSPORT
07 Transport

2011

159

162

• • •

Largest downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to operation of personal transport equipment; and, purchase of vehicles. Partially offset by transport services.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 2.1 2.4 2.0 -0.3

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.8 0.1 2.0 0.6

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.05 -0.06 -

07.1 Purchase of vehicles
07.1 Purchase of vehicles 07.1.1A New cars 07.1.1B Second-hand cars 07.1.2/3 Motorcycles and bicycles

2011

44 25 16 3

43 24 16 3

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to the purchase of new cars, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago. The VAT increase in January 2011 was a significant factor in the sharper price rises for new cars between December 2010 and January 2011.
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07.2 Operation of personal transport equipment
07.2 Operation of personal transport equipment 07.2.1 Spare parts and accessories 07.2.2 Fuels and lubricants 07.2.3 Maintenance and repairs 07.2.4 Other services

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.3 -0.5 0.5 0.3 -

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.26 -0.02 -0.17 -0.06 -0.02

81 6 43 24 8

89 5 46 22 16

3.6 2.6 4.4 2.9 1.9

• • •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to fuels and lubricants; maintenance and repairs; and, to a lesser extent, spare parts and accessories; and, other services. The increase in VAT in January 2011 contributed to the sharper price rises for transport costs between December 2010 and January 2011.

Spare parts and accessories
• • Small downward effect. Charges overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

Fuels and lubricants
• • • • • Large downward effect. Due to changes in pump prices, which rose this year by less than a year ago. The average price of petrol across the month, as recorded for the CPI, rose by 0.6 pence per litre between December 2011 and January 2012 to stand at 133.2 pence per litre. Last year, the average price of petrol rose by 5.4 pence per litre between December 2011 and January 2012 to stand at 127.4 pence per litre. The average price of diesel rose by 0.7 pence per litre between December 2011 and January 2012 to stand at 141.6 pence per litre, a record high. This compares with a rise of 5.8 pence last year to stand at 131.9 pence per litre. The increase in VAT in January 2011 coupled with an increase in fuel duty and the rising price of crude oil pushed up the prices of fuels and lubricants last year.

Maintenance and repairs
• • Large downward effect. Charges overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with downward contributions coming from a wide range of garage services.

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 19

Other services
• • Small downward effect. Charges overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from self drive van hire and road tolls.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -6.7 5.5 -0.3 -30.9 1.3

1 month % change Jan 2012 -6.1 4.1 0.2 -28.4 3.5

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.04 -0.01 0.01 0.04 -

07.3 Transport services
07.3 Transport services 07.3.1 Passenger transport by railway 07.3.2 Passenger transport by road 07.3.3 Passenger transport by air 07.3.4 Passenger transport by sea and inland waterway

2011

34 9 13 9 3

30 9 12 8 1

• • •

Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to passenger transport by air and, to a lesser extent, passenger transport by road. Partially offset by passenger transport by railway.

Passenger transport by railway
• • Small downward effect. Average fares rose this year by less than a year ago.

Passenger transport by road
• • Small upward effect. Average fares rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from bus fares.

Passenger transport by air
• • Large upward effect. Average air fares fell this year by less than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from long haul and European flights.

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Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 1.3

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.3

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.04

08 COMMUNICATION
08 Communication

2011

26

27

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to telephone equipment and services.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -

1 month % change Jan 2012 -

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -

08.1 Postal services
08.1 Postal services

2011

2

1



Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

08.2/3 Telephone equipment and services
08.2/3 Telephone equipment and services

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 1.4

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.3

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.04

24

26

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from landline telephone charges, mobile telephone charges and cable telephones.

09 RECREATION AND CULTURE
09 Recreation and culture

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -0.2

1 month % change Jan 2012 -

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.03

147

134

• • •

Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to audio-visual equipment and related products; and other recreational items, gardens and pets. Partially offset by recreational and cultural services; other major durables for recreation and culture; books, newspapers and stationery; and, package holidays.

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09.1 Audio-visual equipment and related products
09.1 Audio-visual equipment and related products 09.1.1 Equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures 09.1.2 Photographic, cinematographic and optical equipment 09.1.3 Data processing equipment 09.1.4 Recording media 09.1.5 Repair of audio-visual equipment and related products

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.9 -0.5 -0.8 3.2 -5.4 -0.3

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.04 -

27 6 5 7 8 1

23 6 4 6 6 1

-3.5 -1.0 -2.4 -1.2 -8.8 1.9

• •

Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to recording media, data processing equipment and, to a lesser extent, photographic, cinematographic and optical equipment.

Photographic, cinematographic and optical equipment
• • Small upward effect. Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from digital cameras.

Data processing equipment
• • Small upward effect. Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for PC peripherals and laptop computers.

Recording media
• • Large upward effect. Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, particularly for DVDs and CDs purchased via the internet.

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09.2 Other major durables for recreation and culture
09.2.1/2 Major durables for in/outdoor recreation

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.2

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.02

10

10

1.7

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from caravans.

09.3 Other recreational items, gardens and pets
09.3 Other recreational items, gardens and pets 09.3.1 Games, toys and hobbies 09.3.2 Equipment for sport and open-air recreation 09.3.3 Gardens, plants and flowers 09.3.4/5 Pets, related products and services

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.9 1.8 -1.5 -0.9 0.4

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.01 0.02 -0.01

38 22 3 5 8

35 20 3 4 8

0.5 0.6 -1.4 -0.7 1.5

• • •

Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to games, toys and hobbies. Partially offset by pets, related products and services.

Games, toys and hobbies
• • • Small upward effect. Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from computer games and, to a lesser extent, children’s soft toys. Partially offset by small downward contributions from board games, pre-school activity toys and computer games bought with an accessory, where prices fell this year but rose a year ago.

Pets, related products and services
• • • Small downward effect. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago. There was a small offsetting upward contribution from dry dog food, where prices rose this year but fell a year ago.

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09.4 Recreational and cultural services
09.4 Recreational and cultural services 09.4.1 Recreational and sporting services 09.4.2 Cultural services

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 1.0 -0.1 1.4

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.04 -0.03

30 8 22

29 8 21

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to cultural services, where charges overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from admission to cultural events and subscription to satellite television.

09.5 Books, newspapers and stationery
09.5 Books, newspapers and stationery 09.5.1 Books 09.5.2 Newspapers and periodicals 09.5.3/4 Misc. printed matter, stationery, drawing materials

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -0.3 -2.6 0.1 1.0

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.8 -3.2 -0.3 0.2

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.01 -

15 4 5 6

13 3 5 5

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.3

1 month % change Jan 2012 -

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.01

09.6 Package holidays
09.6 Package holidays

2011

27

24

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -

1 month % change Jan 2012 -

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -

10 EDUCATION
10 Education

2011

18

19



Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.
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11 RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS
11 Restaurants and hotels

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 1.3

1 month % change Jan 2012 -

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.16

120

114

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to catering services; and, to a lesser extent, accommodation services.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 1.3 1.4 0.6

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.1 0.1 0.1

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.13 -0.12 -0.01

11.1 Catering services
11.1 Catering services 11.1.1 Restaurants and cafes 11.1.2 Canteens

2011

103 93 10

97 86 11

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to restaurants and cafes; and, to a lesser extent, canteens.

Restaurants and cafes
• • • Large downward effect. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the largest downward contributions coming from wine per glass, draught beer and draught and bottled lager. The VAT increase in January 2011 was a significant factor in the price rises for alcoholic beverages within restaurants and cafes between December 2010 and January 2011.

Canteens
• • Small downward effect. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

11.2 Accommodation services
11.2 Accommodation services

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 1.0

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.9

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.03

17

17

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from hotel overnight stays.

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12 MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES
12 Misc. goods and services

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -0.3

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.1

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.02

94

96

• • •

Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to financial services not elsewhere covered. Partially offset by personal care; other services not elsewhere covered; and, insurance.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 1.0 1.0 1.0

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.3 0.1 0.5

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.02 -0.01 -0.01

12.1 Personal care
12.1 Personal care 12.1.1 Hairdressing and personal grooming establishments 12.1.2/3 Appliances and products for personal care

2011

28 7 21

28 8 20

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to hairdressing and personal grooming establishments; and, appliances and products for personal care.

Hairdressing and personal grooming establishments
• • Small downward effect. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

Appliances and products for personal care
• • • Small downward effect. Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the largest downward contributions coming from hair styling appliances, disposable nappies and perfume/eau de toilette. Partially offset by a small upward contribution from deodorant, where prices rose this year but fell a year ago.

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12.3 Personal effects not elsewhere covered
12.3 Personal effects not elsewhere covered 12.3.1 Jewellery, clocks and watches 12.3.2 Other personal effects

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.8 -2.0

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -

10 7 3

13 8 5

-0.8 0.4 -3.6



Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.5

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.2

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -

12.4 Social protection
12.4 Social protection

2011

11

13



Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

Weight

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011 -1.5 -0.4 -1.3 -2.2

1 month % change Jan 2012 -3.0 -1.3 -0.2 -6.6

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.01 -0.01

12.5 Insurance
12.5 Insurance 12.5.2 House contents insurance 12.5.3 Health insurance 12.5.4 Transport insurance

2011

8 2 2 4

8 3 2 3

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to transport insurance, where average car insurance premiums fell this year by more than a year ago.

12.6 Financial services not elsewhere covered
12.6 Financial services not elsewhere covered

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.7

Contribution to CPI annual rate change 0.08

26

23

-2.4

• •

Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Charges overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from bank overdraft charges and, to a lesser extent, current account charges and mortgage arrangement fees.
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12.7 Other services not elsewhere covered
12.7 Other services not elsewhere covered

Weight 2011

Weight 2012

1 month % change Jan 2011

1 month % change Jan 2012 -

Contribution to CPI annual rate change -0.02

11

11

2.2

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Charges overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from internet flower delivery costs.

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RPI SUMMARY
CONTRIBUTIONS TO CHANGE IN THE RPI ANNUAL RATE
Weight Weight 2011 1 month % change Jan 2011 FOOD CATERING ALCOHOLIC DRINKS TOBACCO HOUSING FUEL AND LIGHT HOUSEHOLD GOODS HOUSEHOLD SERVICES CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR PERSONAL GOODS AND SERVICES MOTORING EXPENDITURE FARES AND OTHER TRAVEL COSTS LEISURE GOODS LEISURE SERVICES 112 47 64 27 237 40 67 59 40 41 144 20 37 65 118 47 60 28 238 42 65 63 44 38 137 20 36 64 0.4 1.1 3.3 2.8 0.1 0.5 -2.3 0.9 -5.3 0.4 2.2 -6.1 -1.2 0.5 1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.2 0.2 1.3 0.1 0.1 -3.1 -0.1 -5.1 0.3 -0.6 -5.6 -0.4 Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.08 -0.04 -0.13 -0.07 -0.02 -0.06 -0.06 -0.03 -0.01 -0.41 0.01 0.03 -0.03

GROUPS

2010

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RPI RECORDS
All items RPI Annual rate +3.9%, down from +4.8% last month Lowest since February 2010 (+3.7%) Annual rate +4.0%, down from +5.0% last month Lowest since December 2009 (+3.8%) Annual rate +4.2%, up from +3.7% last month Highest since October 2011 (+4.3%) Annual rate +4.0%, down from +4.6% last month Food Also +4.0% in August 2010 Last lower in July 2010 (+3.3%) Motoring expenditure Annual rate +3.9%, down from +6.8% last month Lowest since September 2009 (+2.9%) Annual rate +2.5%, down from +3.0% last month Leisure services Also +2.5% in August 2006 and September 2006 Last lower in July 2006 (+2.1%) All goods Annual rate +4.1%, down from +5.4% last month Lowest since November 2009 (+3.9%) Annual rate +5.0%, down from +5.8% last month Lowest since August 2011 (+4.8%)

All items RPI exc MIPS (RPIX) All items RPI exc MIPS and indirect taxes

All services

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RPI DETAILED BRIEFING
• Weights are specified as parts per 1000 in the RPI.

Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.4

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.2

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.08

FOOD
FOOD

2010

112

118

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to non-seasonal and seasonal food.

Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 -0.8 -0.6 7.0 1.4 0.3 0.6 -5.3

1 month % change Jan 2012 -1.2 2.5 4.3 -1.6 2.2 0.2 -5.5

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.01 -0.01 -

Seasonal Food
SEASONAL FOOD Home killed lamb Fresh fish Eggs Unprocessed potatoes Other fresh vegetables Fresh fruit

2010

19 1 2 1 2 7 6

20 1 2 1 2 7 7

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to fresh fish, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for prawns.

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Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.7 -2.0 -0.3 0.3 5.3 -4.7 0.8 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 0.8 1.6 -1.5 0.7 -1.6 2.6 3.0 -0.5 2.8 1.6 -0.5 3.1 0.1 -0.2

1 month % change Jan 2012 1.5 -1.2 0.3 1.2 0.1 5.3 -0.1 -2.0 -0.4 -1.6 0.5 -2.0 1.5 -1.0 -0.6 0.1 0.7 -0.1 1.1 -1.4 -3.1 1.5 -1.5 1.9

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.07 0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -

Non-Seasonal Food
NON-SEASONAL FOOD Bread Cereals Biscuits and cakes Beef Imported lamb Pork Bacon Poultry Other meat Processed fish Butter Oil and fats Cheese Milk, fresh Milk products Tea Soft drinks Sugar and preserves Sweets and chocolates Potato products Processed vegetables Processed fruit Other foods Coffee and other hot drinks

2010

93 5 4 6 4 1 1 2 4 7 2 1 2 3 5 4 1 11 1 11 3 2 1 11 1

98 5 4 7 4 1 1 2 4 7 2 1 2 4 5 4 1 13 1 12 3 2 1 11 1

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to: • Soft drinks, sweets and chocolate and imported lamb where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the largest downward contributions coming from bottles and packs of cola flavoured/ other fizzy drinks, fresh orange juice and packs of bottled fruit drinks, chocolate bars and frozen lamb joints. Partially offset by small upward contributions from fruit juice other than orange and boxes of chocolates; • Oils and fats, fresh milk, potato products and other foods, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from margarine/low fat spread, shop bought milk, frozen pizza, mayonnaise and dried potted snacks. Partially offset by a small upward contribution from jars and cans of cook in sauces; and • Poultry and processed vegetables, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago.

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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 32



Partially offset by: • • Pork and cheese, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from pork chops and cheese spread; and Bread, where prices overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago.

Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 1.1 1.2 0.5 1.0

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.2 0.2 0.3

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.04 -0.02 -0.01

CATERING
CATERING Restaurant meals Canteen meals Take-away meals and snacks

2010

47 26 4 17

47 26 4 17

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to restaurant meals and take-away meals and snacks, where prices overall rose by less than a year ago.

Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 3.3 1.8 3.5 1.8 7.9

1 month % change Jan 2012 1.3 0.1 1.6 0.1 4.8

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.13 -0.05 -0.01 -0.03 -0.05

ALCOHOLIC DRINKS
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS Beer on sales Beer off sales Wines and spirits on sales Wines and spirits off sales

2010

64 26 5 18 15

60 23 6 17 14

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to beer on sales and wines and spirits off sales, and, to a lesser extent, wines and spirits on sales and beer off sales, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago across a wide range of items, mainly due to the increase in the standard rate of VAT in January 2011.

Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 2.8 2.9 2.6

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.1 0.1 0.1

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.07 -0.07 -0.01

TOBACCO
TOBACCO Cigarettes Other tobacco products

2010

27 24 3

28 24 4



Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.
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Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 33



Due to cigarettes and, to a lesser extent, other tobacco products, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago across a wide range of items, mainly due to the increase in the standard rate of VAT in January 2011.

Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.1 0.3 0.4 1.7 1.5 -1.1 -0.5

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.8 -0.7 -0.1

Contribution to RPI annual rate change 0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.02

HOUSING
HOUSING Rent Mortgage interest payments Council tax and rates Water and other charges Repairs and maintenance charges DIY materials Dwelling insurance and ground rent House depreciation

2010

237 69 34 39 13 12 8 7 55

238 73 32 40 13 10 9 7 54

• •

Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change. There were small downward effects from repairs and maintenance charges, where prices were little changed this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from plumbers and electricians and mortgage interest payments, where charges overall rose this year by less than a year ago.



Offset by house depreciation, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago and rent where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago

Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 -0.4

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.1 0.2

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -

FUEL AND LIGHT
FUEL AND LIGHT Coal and solid fuels Electricity Gas Oil and other fuels

2010

40 1 18 17 4

42 1 20 18 3

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to electricity and gas, where average charges remained unchanged this year but rose a year ago.

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Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 -2.3 -5.7 -2.9 -1.2 -0.7 2.2 1.3

1 month % change Jan 2012 -3.1 -5.9 -5.4 -1.1 -0.3 0.6

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.06 -0.03 -0.03 -

HOUSEHOLD GOODS
HOUSEHOLD GOODS Furniture Furnishings Electrical appliances Other household equipment Household consumables Pet care

2010

67 26 10 7 4 13 7

65 24 10 6 5 13 7

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to: • • Furnishings, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for carpets; and Household consumables, where prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from bleach.

Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.9 0.9 0.2 1.6

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.06 -0.01 -0.01 -0.04

HOUSEHOLD SERVICES
HOUSEHOLD SERVICES Domestic services Fees and subscriptions Postage Telephone charges

2010

59 13 22 1 23

63 14 25 1 23

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to: • Telephone charges and, to a lesser extent, fees and subscriptions, where average charges fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from landline telephone charges, mobile telephone charges and cable telephones; and • Domestic services, where average charges rose this year by less than a year ago.

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CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR Men’s outerwear Women’s outerwear Children’s outerwear Other clothing Footwear

Weight 2010

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 -5.3 -4.7 -7.3 -5.0 -1.5 -4.5

1 month % change Jan 2012 -5.1 -4.1 -7.7 -4.2 -1.6 -2.9

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.03 -0.04 0.01

40 8 14 5 5 8

44 9 17 5 5 8

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to women’s outerwear, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago. The main downward contributions came from women’s long sleeved tops, casual trousers, formal skirts, and coats.



Partially offset by footwear, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago.

PERSONAL GOODS & SERVICES
PERSONAL GOODS & SERVICES Personal articles Chemists' goods Personal services

Weight 2010

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.4 -0.8 1.1 0.7

1 month % change Jan 2012 0.3 -0.7 0.8 0.3

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

41 11 16 14

38 9 16 13

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to chemists’ goods and personal services, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from disposable nappies.

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Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 2.2 2.0 2.9 4.7 -1.9

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.6 1.9 0.2 0.1 -5.5

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.41 -0.01 -0.05 -0.24 -0.11

MOTORING EXPENDITURE
MOTORING EXPENDITURE Purchase of motor vehicles Maintenance of motor vehicles Petrol and oil Vehicle tax and insurance

2010

144 50 19 49 26

137 45 20 46 26

• •

Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to: • Petrol and oil, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago. The price of petrol, as recorded for the RPI, rose by 0.2 pence per litre between December 2011 and January 2012, to stand at 132.7 pence per litre, compared with a rise of 5.7 pence per litre last year to stand at 127.4 pence per litre. Diesel prices were unchanged this year to stand at 141.0 pence per litre in January 2011, compared with a rise of 5.8 pence per litre last year to stand at 131.6 pence per litre; • • Vehicle tax and insurance, where average car insurance premiums fell this year by more than a year ago; and Maintenance of motor vehicles, and to a lesser extent, purchase of motor vehicles, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year go, with the main downward contributions coming from a range of garage services, mainly due to the increase in the standard rate of VAT in January 2011, second hand cars and caravans.

FARES AND OTHER TRAVEL COSTS
FARES AND OTHER TRAVEL COSTS Rail fares Bus and coach fares Other travel costs

Weight 2010

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 -6.1 5.8 -1.5 -13.5

1 month % change Jan 2012 -5.6 4.2 0.1 -12.5

Contribution to RPI annual rate change 0.01 -0.01 0.01 0.01

20 6 4 10

20 6 4 10

• •

Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to: • • Bus and coach fares, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from bus fares; and Other travel costs, where prices overall fell by less than a year ago, particularly for air fares. Partially offset by small downward contributions from road tolls and boats.



Partially offset by rail fares, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.
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Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 -1.2 -1.0 -8.2 0.1 -0.8 -0.1

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.4 2.2 -3.4 1.0 -1.5 -0.9

Contribution to RPI annual rate change 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 -0.01 -

LEISURE GOODS
LEISURE GOODS Audio-visual equipment CDs and tapes Toys, photographic and sports goods Books and newspapers Gardening products

2010

37 8 3 12 8 6

36 9 3 10 8 6

• •

Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to: • • Audio-visual equipment, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for PC peripherals; CDs and tapes, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from DVDs purchased via the internet and shop bought DVD films; and • Toys, photographic and sports goods, where prices rose by more than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from digital cameras and computer games.



Partially offset by books and newspapers, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago.

Weight

Weight 2011

1 month % change Jan 2011 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.5

1 month % change Jan 2012 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.3

Contribution to RPI annual rate change -0.03 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01

LEISURE SERVICES
LEISURE SERVICES TV licence and rentals Entertainment and other recreation Foreign holidays UK holidays

2010

65 12 15 31 7

64 12 14 29 9

• •

Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change. Due to: • TV licence and rentals, entertainment and other recreation and UK holidays, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago with the main downward contribution coming from subscription to satellite TV; and • Foreign holidays, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

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RECONCILIATION OF CPI AND RPI
(Table 4 of the CPI and RPI Detailed Reference Tables)

Table 4 of the CPI & RPI Detailed Reference Tables identifies the main factors contributing to the differences between the unrounded inflation rates for the CPI and the RPI. These differences are broken down into: mortgage interest payments, other housing components excluded from the CPI, other differences in the coverage of goods and services, and the formula effect. The final column titled ‘other differences including weights’ is derived as a residual. The difference between the CPI and RPI unrounded annual rates in January 2012 was -0.34 percentage points, narrowing from -0.62 percentage points in December 2011. The main factors contributing to the narrowing were:



Other differences including weights, with differences changing from 0.16 to 0.44 percentage points in January (increasing the CPI 12-month rate relative to the RPI 12-month rate by 0.28 percentage points). The largest narrowing effects came from insurance, financial services, petrol & oil, food and non-alcoholic beverages and recording media; and



Formula effect, with differences changing from -1.02 to -0.94 in January (increasing the CPI 12-month rate relative to the RPI 12-month rate by 0.08 percentage points). The effect came mainly from clothing & footwear and food & non-alcoholic beverages.

Partially offsetting the narrowing effect was: • Other differences in coverage of goods and services, which increased the RPI 12-month rate relative to the CPI 12-month rate in January by 0.07 percentage points. This effect was mainly due to new cars where there are differences in the methods used to measure prices in the CPI and RPI.

38

Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 39

RPI MISCELLANEOUS DATA
Selected Average Prices
Description Diesel* Petrol per litre Petrol* Draught bitter (pint) Alcohol pub prices Draught lager (pint) Whisky (per nip) Cigarettes
*

November 2011 £1.41 £1.34 £2.72 £3.11 £2.29 £6.73

December 2011 £1.41 £1.33 £2.72 £3.12 £2.30 £6.71

January 2012 £1.41 £1.33 £2.73 £3.12 £2.30 £6.72

Per 20 king size

Average prices are as recorded for the RPI

Changes in Mortgage Interest Rates
This table gives an estimate of the contribution that changes in the average mortgage interest rate (MI) make to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI. 1-Month % change in the RPI +0.3 +1.0 +0.5 +0.8 +0.3 +0.0 -0.2 +0.6 +0.8 +0.0 +0.2 +0.4 -0.6 Approx. change in average MI rate Negligible Down -0.01% points Negligible Negligible Down -0.01% points Negligible Down -0.01% points Down -0.02% points Negligible Down -0.04% points Up +0.02% points Down -0.02% points Down -0.01% points Approx. contribution to the 1-month % change in the RPI -0.01% points -0.01% points -0.01% points -0.02% points -0.04% points +0.02% points -0.02% points -0.01% points

Month January 2011 February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012

NB: A one percentage point change in the average mortgage interest rate contributes approx. 0.9 percentage points to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

39

Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 40

OUTLOOK
The outlook is a summary of seasonal trends, selected news cuttings and other sources of information. It gives some indication of expected changes to the annual rate of the CPI and RPI in the next few months.

FOOD
Seasonal Food • Seasonal food prices are variable in February and are dependent on weather conditions both in the UK and continent.

Monthly % change for RPI seasonal food index Year December January February 2005/6 2.2 -1.5 1.2 2006/7 -0.6 -1.7 1.5 2007/8 0.9 -0.4 -1.8 2008/9 1.2 -0.8 2.5 2009/10 1.9 0.4 1.4 2010/11 4.0 -0.8 0.3 2011/12 3.3 -1.2 • Seasonal food prices in the CPI tend to show a similar movement.

CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR
• Prices for clothing and footwear have been variable in February although since the improved measurement approach for clothing was implemented during 2010, prices have increased between January and February.

Monthly % change for CPI clothing and footwear index Year December January February 2005/6 -0.4 -4.1 -0.1 2006/7 -1.3 -4.2 -0.1 2007/8 -0.8 -5.1 0.1 2008/9 -4.2 -4.7 0.8 2009/10 -1.3 -5.7 2.0 2010/11 -1.9 -5.9 3.6 2011/12 -2.8 -4.9 • The clothing and footwear group in the RPI exhibits a similar seasonal pattern.

40

Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 41

ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS
• The reduction in charges announced by the major suppliers will have an impact on the CPI and RPI in the following months: • February 2012 CPI and RPI published on 20 March 2012: British Gas’s 5% cut in electricity prices, Npower’s 5% reduction in gas charges and EDF’s 5% reduction in gas charges •

March 2012 CPI and RPI published on 17 April 2012: Scottish Power’s 5% reduction in gas charges and E.ON’s 6% cut in electricity prices



April 2012 CPI and RPI published on 22 May 2012: SSE’s 4.5% cut in gas charges

FURNITURE, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND MAINTENANCE
• Prices tend to rise in February as they recover from New Year sales.

Monthly % change for CPI furniture, household equipment and maintenance index Year December January February 2005/6 2.3 -4.8 0.7 2006/7 3.4 -4.8 1.3 2007/8 2.5 -4.1 1.4 2008/9 0.3 -2.8 2.4 2009/10 2.2 -3.1 1.1 2010/11 1.2 -1.9 1.4 2011/12 1.0 -2.2 • The household goods group in the RPI exhibits a similar seasonal pattern.

TRANSPORT
Fuels and Lubricants • Front-month Brent gained 16 cents to $117.36 a barrel by 0323 GMT, rising for an eighth straight day, after ending at a six-month high. US crude added 13 cents to reach $98.84 a barrel in its third day of increases. (uk.reuters.com 9 February 2012) • When considering the price of petrol between January and February 2012, it may be useful to note that the average price of petrol rose by 1.6 pence per litre between January and February 2011, to stand at 129.0 pence per litre as measured in the CPI. • A 1 pence change on average in the cost of a litre of road fuel contributes approximately 0.03 percentage points to the 1-month change in the CPI.
41

Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 42

Passenger Transport by Air • Air fares have shown variable movement in February. Monthly % change for CPI air fares index Year 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 • December 17.3 24.4 26.6 36.2 41.7 41.8 40.9 January -15.6 -21.3 -19.4 -27.3 -28.4 -30.9 -28.4 February -1.9 9.4 5.6 -2.1 1.7 2.1

The air fares index used in the RPI is the same as that used in the CPI, and is included in the other travel costs section.

HOUSING (RPI)
Mortgage interest payments (MIPs) • • The Bank of England Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5% on Thursday 9 February 2012. The change in average mortgage interest rates recorded in the RPI was -0.01 percentage points between January and February 2011. The Bank of England Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5% in January 2011. • A one percentage point change in the average mortgage interest rate contributes approximately 0.9 percentage points to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

42

Statistical Bulletin: Briefing Note, Consumer Price Indices January 2012: Page 43

Next publication: 20 March 2012 Issued by: Office for National Statistics, Government Buildings, Cardiff Road, Newport. NP10 8XG Media contact: Tel: E-mail Luke Croydon Emergency on-call 0845 6041858 07867 906553

media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Statistical contact: Tel: E-mail Darren Morgan 01633 455666 darren.morgan@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Website: www.ons.gov.uk E-mail: cpi@ons.gov.uk

CPI/RPI recorded message: Tel: 01633 456961

CPI/RPI Enquiries: Tel: 01633 456900

43

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