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Arab Spring

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MBA 7592 Current Event Paper: Arab Spring

07 December 2014

Wilmington University

Abstract
What is most interesting about what began in the smallest country in Northern Africa is that it had escalated to the most sweeping movement that changed the face of the Middle East for years to come. The Arab spring began to wield its head around December of 2010 in Tunisia but was truly set off once Mohamed Bouazizi a local vendor was humiliated in public by a police officer and was not permitted to sell his fruits (Staff, 2011). This has proven to be a normal practice in Tunisia, in a country where most of its population is college educated. They are unlike other Arab nations in neighboring areas; the majorities of all Tunisians are educated and have been education abroad. This was a wide spread practice across the region with regard to the inhabitants of these countries, the cruel and unjust treatment from these authoritarian leaders, corrupted law enforcement, and suppression of their religious leaders by their very own law enforcement agents. Being able to witness this first hand, observing the way of life within the region and oppressive living conditions they are subjected too, while their monarchs, military and state leaders live a very lavish life. While reviewing why the Arab spring happened, the impact it has had in the Middle East and on its economic system, we will analyze the outcome and the overall consequence it will have on the region. We will also touch on the domino effect that this small nation has set into motion in this corner of the world that was so delicate, the whirlwind which it set off and could not retract once started that is still happening currently, which is depicted in appendix A.
Keywords: Poverty, Rising food prices, Inflation, human rights, unemployment

Arab Spring
Review of Situation As we enter the fourth year of the Arab spring we can see that peace is by far, nowhere in the present scope. The same daunting reasons that they had entered into this revolution across the Middle East are still present and continue to engulf this region of the world. While war and unrest have hindered any possibility of peaceful resolution, inflation still dominates the economies of the Middle East, which can be defined as Stagflation because of their high rate of unemployment and economy stagnation. As we look in the trading economics over the past 12 months in Tunisia where the Arab spring started, inflation rate is at 5.4 and jobless rate 15.20% (Trading Economics, 2014) and it’s a common sight throughout the region. The most common cause of their inability to overcome and advance is the political and religious oppression of the masses within these countries. While we watch Isis march across Iraq and out of Syria, as other terrorist groups prevent the possibility to come to a peaceful solution amongst them. There is Egypt, a prime example of these changes taking some time for peace to be established, as open elections took place, the people rose up in order to remove the extremist group they had placed in power. Condoleezza Rice stated correctly in her interview with the Daily Beast “Whole societies are feeling their way, painfully and with many pitfalls, toward democracy” (Christopher, 2012). Another view that is mostly not spoken about is the foreign interference within the region adding to the chaos, these influences are not only from the west but Russia, Tehran and other European counties. This by no means excludes the responsibilities of those who lead these countries by royal decree or military dictatorship which were the main cause for the revolt primarily due to their tyrannical power which usurped the rights of the people. This created a social imbalance that still reverberates throughout this region today.
Analysis
As we analyze the outcome of the Arab spring with regard to what has or might evolve from it, it is important to ask what influences will religion have on the reestablishments of these countries? In 2012 there was a poll conducted with the six affected countries on the importance of the establishment of their country and what would be a strong indicator of them recovering. Most chose a strong economy with an average of 51%, with democracy averaging in at 44%, showing that the people in the region are aware what goes into making a strong and self-sufficient country, this is illustrated in appendix B. Fast forward to 2014 and democracy is still struggling within the region, while most of the people want democracy, no plausible political ideology has emerged. An article written earlier this year summarizes what is happening in their formation of a governing philosophy simply stated that “not even China’s seemingly successful blend of capitalism and authoritarian government” (Books, 2014) seems to be winning over the people. Egypt has elected to revert back to military governing; royal families still rule, Syria is still within a civil war, and Libya is now considered a failed state joining Somalia, and Yemen. One thing is for certain, that both the military and the Islamists will have to find a way to collaborate and contribute to the solution so that their ideology will not continue to hurt their nations. Economically it has been noted that Tunisia, Libya and Egypt are worse off today than they were before the Arab spring, taking everything into account, democracy does not happen overnight. In review of their foreign direct investment levels and GDP being down and unemployment on an increased they are struggling to establish and stabilize their economy as well as the country. Although Tunisia has really been the only one of the countries to establish a democracy from a dictatorship it will all come down to the economic policies these newly established governments will implement to permit their countries to move forward in the global market.
Potential Impact The social and economic impact of the Arab spring will not be completely felt for years if not decades to come, but as these countries formulate an economic and political strategy they will be able to regain stability within the region. This will permit them a balance between ideological and social political changes within their borders and that of the regions by maintaining human rights and an unrestricted trading market. Mr. Riad al Khouri a Jordanian economist who is in the region helped draft the Deauville Partnership Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Report wrote a very intuitive article last year that outlined the direct and indirect impact of the Arab spring which concluded “Yet when all that is finally achieved, the Arab Spring, like the fall of Communism in the former Soviet bloc over two decades ago, could help bring local economies further into the global supply chain, thus spurring regional growth” (al, 2013). As most have seen in the past two years since the Arab spring flowed across these nations demanding changes in human rights and socio economics, the economy has taken a huge hit as illustrated in Appendix C, but as the eastern bloc countries have steadily increased trade and have learned to balance their economies so will the these nations for as long as the people stay focused on the ultimate goals. The biggest potential impact can be the opening of trade borders to ensure a more positive tie into other emerging markets. If they were to unlock intra-regional trade and put differences asides to include investments it would increase their GDP in the region and allow them to have a steady incline in their economical recovery. As a result of changes in the region and the interest that BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) have taken in the region, it has enabled trade agreements to increase; this is shown in “the trade share increasing from 7% to 12% and doubled with Asia from 6% to 12%” (Masetti Oliver K. K., 2013).

Conclusion While there are decades of mistrust of both foreigners and those who rule the region it is not something that can be resolved over night. Although unemployment, underemployment, poverty, rising food prices, inflation and human rights violations lead to the Arab Spring, it will be what comes from it that will define the region and its inhabitants. While the USA was not always a leader in the world market, we had the advantage of realizing where we had to steer our economy towards, as did many other developed nations. Germany and China are examples of modernization and their ability to recentralize themselves into the global market. While it will take some time for this region of the world to overcome and break out of the mind set of mistrust because of cultural and religious differences, it will take the global community to assist them in developing and creating closer ties with trade partners. What will enable these countries to prosper and gain the self motivation that they currently lack, will be their ability to freely accept trade and investment firmly and enduring will translate in a more lasting betterment in the quality of life for the regions residents. Some determination will have to be made first by the people on how these countries will be ruled, allowing them a similar advantage with the rest of the global community. That will be the deciding factor on whether the Middle East will advance or retreat back to where they came from. Overall Tunisia is well on its way to establishing an economy with its new government and presently Egypt is as well, what now has to happen is the stabilization and establishing of an economic strategy.

References
(2014, October 01). Retrieved from Trading Economics: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ al, K. R. (2013, May). Economic Dimensions of the Arab Spring. Retrieved from Foreign Policy Research Institute: http://www.fpri.org/articles/2013/05/economic-dimensions-arab-spring
Books. (2014, January 12). Retrieved from The Daily Breast: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/01/12/why-democracy-will-struggle-in-the-arab-world-in-2014.html
Christopher, D. (2012, December 04). The Daily Breast. Retrieved from http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/12/04/condoleezza-rice-on-chaos-and-democracy-in-egypt-and-syria.html
Global Attitudes Project. (2012, July 10). Retrieved from PewGlobal.org: http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/07/10/most-muslims-want-democracy-personal-freedoms-and-islam-in-political-life/
Masetti Oliver, K. K. (2013, February 27). Arab Spring 2013. Retrieved from Consensus Economics: http://www.consensuseconomics.com/News_and_Articles/Two_Years_of_Arab_Spring117.htm
Masetti Oliver, K. K. (2013, January 25). Current Issues Emerging markets. Retrieved from Deutsche Bank DB Research : https://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000300328/Two+years+of+Arab+Spring%253A+Where+are+we+now%253F+What%25E2%2580%2599s+next%253F.pdf
Staff, N. (2011, December 17). Retrieved from NPR.org: http://www.npr.org/2011/12/17/143897126/the-arab-spring-a-year-of-revolution
Wikipedia. (2014, November 09). Timeline of the Arab Spring. Retrieved from wikipedia.org: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Arab_Spring

Timeline of the Arab Spring & Concurrent Events

(Wikipedia, 2014)

Appendix A

Priority of Democracy and strong Economy

(Global Attitudes Project, 2012)

Appendix B

Economic Impact of the Arab Spring

Syria
GDP: NA
Tourism: NA
FDI inflows: -43

Tunisia
GDP: -4.0
Tourism: -31
FDI inflows: -24

Lebanon
GDP: -3.1
Tourism: -24
FDI inflows: -25

Egypt
GDP: -3.1
Tourism -3.3
FDI inflows: -100

Jordan
GDP: -3.3
Tourism: -22
FDI inflows: -11

Algeria
GDP: -1.2
Tourism: 16
FDI inflows: 14

Libya
GDP: 26.8
Tourism: NA
FDI inflows: NA

Yemen
GDP: -10.7
Tourism: -28
FDI inflows: NA

Morocco
GDP: -0.8
Tourism: 11
FDI inflows: 60

GDP: Difference between the average real GDP growth in 2011 - 2012 and 2000- 2010, pp
Tourism: Tourist arrivals 2011 vs. 2010, %
FDI inflows: FDI inflows 2011 vs. 2010, %

Sources: UNCTAD, IMF, National Authorities, DB Research

(Masetti Oliver, 2013)

Appendix C

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