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Arundel : Options Case

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Arundel Partners – The Sequels Project

After evaluation of the proposed acquisition of the movie sequel rights, we recommend to offer movie studios as a per-movie price to purchase the sequel rights for their entire portfolio of movies the studios are going to produce over the next year.

Arundel should make an offer to buy sequel rights as the average NPV (on a per film basis ) is $5.51 mn (this is the value calculated using real options method).
Hence, we should pay a price below $5.51mn. As per informal inquiries made by us, the studios would be tempted to accept the price of $2mn or more and would not even consider a price below $1mn.

We propose that we should negotiate for the price of $2mn. This would give us a profit of $3.51 mn per film.

The movie studio might (or might not) be willing to sell these rights at this price because it helps the studios mitigate the risk associated with producing the sequel. Also, the fact that there is no liquid market for rights to produce sequels will also drive the price lower on account of lack of demand.
Average value of Sequel rights per film using DCF Analysis
Average value of sequel rights per film across all studios

1. There are 99 films in the portfolio. Arundel Partners will only produce films for which hypothetical NPV is greater than zero. Hence, we calculate NPV of each film at Year 0. Since the exhibits state that the values are already preset values, we have not rediscounted them.
NPV (At year 0) = (PV of Net Inflows at Year 4a) – (PV of Negative Cost at Year 3)

2. 28 films have NPV > 0 at t=0. The total NPV of these films at t=0 is 852.3. The average NPV for a film is 852.3/99= $8.61mn.

Note: Since the exhibits state that the values are already preset values, we have not rediscounted them for all the calculations
Average value of sequel rights per film per studio
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