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Arundel Partners

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DUISENBERG SCHOOL OF FINANCE MSc FINANCE Corporate Finance and Banking

Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project
The East Wind
Amol Marathe 140843 Linglan Tan 140838 Xiangyu Zhou 140912 Date: 20/11/2014

Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project

The East Wind

Executive Summary:
Arundel group is looking into the project of purchasing the sequel rights associated with films produced by one or more major movie studios in United States. Arundel believes that they can calculate a value for the rights to produce these sequels and take a position by investing in a portfolio conformed of these rights. Arundel Partners plans to make money by negotiating an option price below its net present value calculation and obtaining its expected returns on the option. The proposal is appealing to studios because sales of sequel rights can help them finance initial production, If particular movie becomes a sequel then the value of the option will increase and Arundel will either exercise the right to make the sequel or sell the right either to the original studio or a third party willing to take on the project. The principals at Arundel Partners are inclined to buy a portfolio of all these sequel rights rather than individual films given that Arundel wants to avoid buying the rights of movies that are not expected to perform well. Movie rights are supposed to be purchased prior to films being made. Arundel wants to come up with a decision to either purchase all the sequel rights for a studio's entire production during a specific period of time (one to two years) or purchase a specified number of major films (15 to 30). Arundel's profitability is dependent upon the price it pays for a portfolio of sequel rights.

Summary of Facts:
To reach to its audience, a movie goes through three stages: production, distribution & exhibition. The costs incurred in three stages are negative cost, distribution fee and distribution expense, and projection cost. After distribution expenses, distribution fees, the negative cost, and any other expenses were subtracted from all revenue, what remain were net profits.

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Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project

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The median release data for a sequel was 3 years after the first film’s release, and most were released within 1 to 5 years. The cost and revenue of the typical sequel film will be 120% and 70% of the initial one.

Statement of Problem:
1. Arundel Partners has to arrive at a price to buy rights of sequels which will be lucrative enough for studios to sell the rights to them, similarly it should be below the value of call option. 2. Arundel partner has to come up with a format of contract which will provide both Arundel Partners and studio a right share of distribution of earnings from business.

Analysis & Recommendation
1. Buying a set of sequel rights before the production of first films means Arundel Partners can get the sequel rights at a low prices. The bids offering more than 2 million dollars per film will be appealing to a major studio, and the amount is small compared to potential revenue bought by sequels if the first film is successful. On the other hand, even if the first film is not successful and Arundel Partner will not want to finance the sequel, they can sell the right to highest-bidder or just keep it until expiration without exercise. If some initial films turn out to be successful, the following revenue from owning the sequels rights can be far higher than the loss from option premium without exercise. In a nutshell, the potential revenue will be enormous while the loss is limited, and Arundel Partners have a high possibility of making money by owning the portfolio. The value creation primarily comes from the right to get potential profit of successful sequel films. By buying a portfolio of sequel rights to all films in advance, Arundel Partners can avoid diminishing uncertainty of sequel films, and thus keep options valuable and buy sequel rights at a
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Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project

The East Wind

low price. In the film-by-film negotiation scenario, Arundel Partners have to distinguish valuable films, which is both time-consuming and costly. Since studios know better about production, there will also exist information asymmetry between Partners and studios. This will increase the Arundel Partner’s risk of buying unprofitable sequel rights. If Partners want to buy sequel rights of successful films, the studios will also charge very high prices.

2. In all the three methods below, we calculated the per-film value of a portfolio first, and then make a summary based on the six main studios. The classified summary should help us analyze different film sequel rights and which price Arundel Partners should pay. In the DCF Valuation, we discounted the PV of Net Inflows at Year 4 and PV of Negative Cost at Year 3 to Today respectively. Then we make the difference of the two discounted PV to get the value of sequel rights. According to Exhibit 1, only MCA UNIVERSAL and THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY get positive portfolio valuation. If Arundel Partners can buy sequel rights cheaper than 4.58 million dollars per film (MCA UNIVERSAL) and 6.21 million dollars per film (THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY) respectively, the sequel rights are obviously profitable. On the other hand, Partners should be prudential about rights options due to negative valuations in other four studios. As we know that the sequel rights are not obligation and Arundel Partners can choose not to exercise the option, we apply Decision-tree approach. If the valuation of sequel film is negative, we set it to zero, otherwise we keep the initial valuation. Based on Exhibit 1, the per-film value rises or stay at DCF valuation level. The value rises significantly at studio level as all studios have positive NPV of sequel rights package. Arundel Partners should have tough negotiation with TWENTIETH CENTURY FOX because the valuation is 1.78 million dollars per film, below the
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Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project

The East Wind

threshold of 2 million dollars. Since valuations for other studios are above 2 million dollars, we think Arundel Partners can give appealing bid. We also apply a real-options approach based on the Black-Scholes option formula. We choose PV of Negative Cost at Year 3 and PV of Net Inflow at Year 0 as strike price and fundamental price respectively. Since whether an initial film is successful or not can be distinguished in a few weeks after release, we think one year period option is best choice because it can give Partners enough time to decide without paying a high price. The valuations of per-film and studio portfolios both rises even more and it turns out to be quite profitable to buy portfolio of sequel rights in all the six studios. 3. Based on the Black-Scholes option formula, the price for portfolio of all films should be 6.58 million dollars per film, far above 2 million dollars. Arundel should offer less than 6.58 million dollars per film but, basically, more than 2 million dollars to make their bid attractive. The less they pay, the more profitable the deal is. Problems or disagreements we expect between Arundel Partners and a major studio to encounter in the course of the business relationship are:  Studio influencing, with its contacts within industry to get the sequel under its home production (e.g. individual contracts with actors, directors) inevitably asking Arundel Partners to sell the rights of sequel to them at low prices.  Arundel Partners insisting on completion of movie in targeted time frame, in a way hampering the creativity of production of movie.

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Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project

The East Wind

The terms and provisions for the sequel rights for one or more studios’ entire production:   Arundel Partners can chose to produce the sequel or hire another firm to do so; The maturity or expiration rate of exercising the sequel rights is one year. This will allow Arundel enough time to make a decision about making a sequel and enable it to more quickly write off its investment in rights it chose not to exercise;  Arundel Partners will disburse the payments for the sequel rights over twelve months in the first year of production. (They can maintain an escrow account) This gives the studio the cash flow to produce the first film but mitigates Arundel Partner’s risk in case there are issues with the production of the first film. Arundel Partners can withhold the remaining payment if the studio abandons the production of the first film.

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Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project

The East Wind

Exhibit 1 Hypothetical Sequels and Valuation of Call Option (in millions $)
Hypothetical Sequel PV of Net Inflows at Year 4a PV of Negative Cost at Year 3 PV of Net Inflow at Year 0 PV of Negative Cost at Year 0 Valuation Decisiontree Approac h NPV BlackScholes (Call option)

Studio/Movie Title MCA UNIVERSAL 1 PARENTHOOD 2 BORN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY 3 FIELD OF DREAMS 4 UNCLE BUCK 5 SEA OF LOVE 6 ALWAYS 7 K-9 8 THE ‘BURBS 9 THE DREAM TEAM 10 DO THE RIGHT THING 11 DAD 12 SHOCKER 13 THE WIZARD 14 RENEGADES Average of MCA UNIVERSAL PARAMOUNT PICTURES 15 HARLEM NIGHTS 16 PET SEMATARY 17 BLACK RAIN

One-Year Returnb

DCF NPV

$76.8 56.8 47.3 47.0 44.4 31.4 29.3 27.3 22.9 21.2 17.4 12.4 8.7 7.4

$28.2 25.4 22.6 21.2 35.3 43.7 16.9 24.0 21.2 9.9 26.8 8.5 11.3 16.9

1.72 1.24 1.1 1.22 0.26 (0.28) 0.73 0.14 0.08 1.15 (0.35) 0.47 (0.23) (0.56)

48.81 36.10 30.06 29.87 28.22 19.96 18.62 17.35 14.55 13.47 11.06 7.88 5.53 4.70

20.07 18.08 16.09 15.09 25.13 31.10 12.03 17.08 15.09 7.05 19.08 6.05 8.04 12.03

28.74 18.02 13.97 14.78 3.09 -11.15 6.59 0.27 -0.54 6.43 -8.02 1.83 -2.51 -7.33 4.58

28.74 18.02 13.97 14.78 3.09 0.00 6.59 0.27 0.00 6.43 0.00 1.83 0.00 0.00 6.69

30.07 20.42 16.48 16.83 11.58 5.32 9.26 6.65 5.38 7.47 2.69 3.55 1.57 0.77 9.86

$51.1 41.1 39.0

$42.3 15.5 42.3

0.21 1.65 (0.08)

32.47 26.12 24.79

30.11 11.03 30.11

2.37 15.09 -5.32

2.37 15.09 0.00

12.97 15.92 8.13
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Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project

The East Wind

18 MAJOR LEAGUE 19 COUSINS 20 WE’RE NO ANGELS 21 LET IT RIDE 22 SHIRLEY VALENTINE 23 FAT MAN AND LITTLE BOY 24 THE EXPERTS Average of PARAMOUNT PICTURES SONY PICTURES ENTERTAINMENTc 25 LOOK WHO’S TALKING (TS) 26 WHEN HARRY MET SALLY (C) 27 STEEL MAGNOLIAS (TS) 28 SEE NO EVIL; HEAR NO EVIL (TS) 29 THE BEAR (TS) 30 GLORY (TS) 31 LOOK UP (TS) 32 CASUALTIES OF WAR (C) 33 CHANCES ARE (TS) 34 FAMILY BUSINESS (TS) 35 SHE’S OUT OF CONTROL (C) 36 WHO’S HARRY CRUMB? (TS) 37 ADVENTURES OF BARON MUNCHAUSEN (C) 38 TRUE BELIEVER (C) 39 TROOP BEVERLY HILLS (C) 40 TAP (TS) 41 DEEPSTAR SIX (TS) 42 JOHNNY HANDSOME (TS) 43 MUSIC BOX (TS)

33.7 16.2 8.7 4.3 4.3 3.2 1.1

16.9 18.3 31.0 25.4 11.3 26.8 16.9

0.99 (0.11) (0.72) (0.83) (0.62) (0.88) (0.94)

21.42 10.30 5.53 2.73 2.73 2.03 0.70

12.03 13.03 22.07 18.08 8.04 19.08 12.03

9.39 -2.73 -16.54 -15.35 -5.31 -17.04 -11.33 -4.68

9.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.68

11.46 3.27 0.52 0.12 0.38 0.05 0.01 5.28

$105.5 64.6 61.7 32.0 21.5 20.8 13.2 12.3 10.9 10.2 9.0 7.9 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.4 5.8 5.0 4.9

$14.1 26.8 31.0 25.4 29.6 29.6 24.0 35.3 25.4 25.4 21.2 19.7 73.4 19.7 25.4 21.2 11.3 28.2 25.4

6.48 1.41 0.99 0.26 (0.27) (0.30) (0.45) (0.65) (0.57) (0.60) (0.58) (0.60) (0.90) (0.66) (0.74) (0.70) (0.49) (0.82) (0.81)

67.05 41.05 39.21 20.34 13.66 13.22 8.39 7.82 6.93 6.48 5.72 5.02 4.45 4.26 4.13 4.07 3.69 3.18 3.11

10.04 19.08 22.07 18.08 21.07 21.07 17.08 25.13 18.08 18.08 15.09 14.02 52.24 14.02 18.08 15.09 8.04 20.07 18.08

57.01 21.98 17.15 2.26 -7.41 -7.85 -8.69 -17.31 -11.15 -11.60 -9.37 -9.00 -47.80 -9.76 -13.95 -11.02 -4.36 -16.89 -14.97

57.01 21.98 17.15 2.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

55.10 24.02 20.97 8.35 3.68 3.46 1.74 0.98 1.10 0.96 0.90 0.74 0.07 0.52 0.35 0.42 0.71 0.15 0.17
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The East Wind

44 IMMEDIATE FAMILY (C) 45 LISTEN TO ME (C) 46 PHYSICAL EVIDENCE (C) 47 OLD GRINGO (C) 48 LOVERBOY (TS) 49 SING (TS) 50 WINTER PEOPLE (C) 51 WELCOME HOME (C) 52 ADVENTURES OF MILO AND OTIS (C) 53 THE BIG PICTURE (C) 54 SLAVES OF NEW YORK (TS) 55 EAT A BOWL OF TEA (C) 56 TO KILL A PRIEST (C) 57 ME AND HIM (C) 58 BLOODHOUNDS OF BROADWAY (C) Average of SONY PICTURES ENTERTAINMENTc TWENTIETH CENTURY FOX 59 THE WAR OF THE ROSES 60 THE ABYSS 61 WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S 62 SAY ANYTHING 63 SKIN DEEP 64 THE FABULOUS BAKER BOYS 65 MILLENNIUM 66 WORTH WINNING 67 GLEAMING THE CUBE 68 HOW I GOT INTO COLLEGE 69 WHEN THE WHALES CAME

4.3 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 $1.1 1.1

19.7 21.2 24.0 48.0 14.1 19.7 22.6 19.7 11.3 11.3 8.5 2.8 14.1 $11.3 4.2

(0.78) (0.82) (0.86) (0.93) (0.77) (0.88) (0.91) (0.91) (0.89) (0.89) (0.85) (0.56) (0.92) (0.90) (0.74)

2.73 2.41 2.16 2.03 2.03 1.53 1.33 1.08 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.70 0.70 0.70

14.02 15.09 17.08 34.17 10.04 14.02 16.09 14.02 8.04 8.04 6.05 1.99 10.04 8.04 2.99

-11.29 -12.67 -14.92 -32.13 -8.00 -12.50 -14.75 -12.94 -7.28 -7.28 -5.29 -1.23 -9.34 -7.34 -2.29 -7.71

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.89

0.18 0.12 0.07 0.02 0.14 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.12 0.01 0.01 0.06 3.68

$63.8 44.6 22.3 14.6 14.0 13.2 4.7 3.4 2.7 1.8 1.1

$35.3 63.5 14.1 18.3 14.1 18.3 21.2 18.3 15.5 16.9 5.6

0.81 (0.30) 0.58 (0.21) (0.01) (0.28) (0.78) (0.82) (0.82) (0.89) (0.81)

40.55 28.34 14.17 9.28 8.90 8.39 2.99 2.16 1.72 1.14 0.70

25.13 45.20 10.04 13.03 10.04 13.03 15.09 13.03 11.03 12.03 3.99

15.42 -16.85 4.14 -3.75 -1.14 -4.64 -12.10 -10.86 -9.32 -10.89 -3.29

15.42 0.00 4.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

20.63 7.41 6.70 2.71 3.09 2.24 0.20 0.11 0.08 0.02 0.04
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The East Wind

Average of TWENTIETH CENTURY FOX WARNER BROTHERS 70 BATMAN 71 DRIVING MISS DAISY 72 TANGO & CASH 73 LEAN ON ME 74 HER ALIBI 75 NEXT OF KIN 76 PINK CADILLAC 77 YOUNG EINSTEIN 78 DEAD-BANG 79 DEAD CALM 80 SECOND SIGHT 81 SEE YOU IN THE MORNING 82 IN COUNTRY 83 COOKIE 84 HOW TO GET AHEAD IN ADVERTISING 85 POWWOW HIGHWAY 86 BERT RIGBY, YOU’RE A FOOL 87 PENN & TELLER GET KILLED 88 CHECKING OUT Average of WARNER BROTHERS THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY 89 HONEY, I SHRUNK THE KIDS (W) 90 DEAD POETS SOCIETY (T) 91 THE LITTLE MERMAID (W) 92 TURNER & HOOTCH (T)

-4.84

1.78

3.93

$229.1 77.6 46.7 22.9 15.0 11.7 11.4 10.2 6.4 6.1 4.9 4.4 3.5 2.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1

$70.5 11.3 77.6 21.2 28.2 16.9 26.8 5.6 19.7 12.7 14.1 24.0 25.4 18.3 7.1 5.6 18.3 11.3 7.1

2.25 5.87 (0.40) 0.08 (0.47) (0.31) (0.58) 0.80 (0.68) (0.52) (0.65) (0.82) (0.86) (0.86) (0.80) (0.78) (0.94) (0.90) (0.85)

145.60 49.32 29.68 14.55 9.53 7.44 7.24 6.48 4.07 3.88 3.11 2.80 2.22 1.65 0.89 0.76 0.70 0.70 0.70

50.18 8.04 55.23 15.09 20.07 12.03 19.08 3.99 14.02 9.04 10.04 17.08 18.08 13.03 5.05 3.99 13.03 8.04 5.05

95.42 41.27 -25.56 -0.54 -10.54 -4.59 -11.83 2.50 -9.95 -5.16 -6.92 -14.29 -15.85 -11.37 -4.16 -3.22 -12.33 -7.34 -4.35 -0.47

95.42 41.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.33

95.96 39.87 6.72 5.38 1.91 1.92 1.14 3.31 0.47 0.70 0.39 0.14 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.03 8.32

$111.2 74.4 62.0 54.6

$31.0 28.2 28.2 25.4

2.58 1.64 1.20 1.15

70.67 47.28 39.40 34.70

22.07 20.07 20.07 18.08

48.60 27.21 19.33 16.62

48.60 27.21 19.33 16.62

48.19 28.75 22.11 19.26
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The East Wind

93 THREE FUGITIVES (T) 94 AN INNOCENT MAN (T) 95 BLAZE (T) 96 NEW YORK STORIES (T) 97 GROSS ANATOMY (T) 98 DISORGANIZED CRIME (T) 99 CHEETAH (W) Average of THE WALT DISNEY COMPANY Average of All Studios

29.1 17.0 14.7 8.2 8.1 7.1 7.1

24.0 24.0 25.4 26.8 16.9 15.5 9.9

0.21 (0.29) (0.42) (0.69) (0.52) (0.54) (0.28)

18.49 10.80 9.34 5.21 5.15 4.51 4.51

17.08 17.08 18.08 19.08 12.03 11.03 7.05

1.41 -6.28 -8.74 -13.86 -6.88 -6.52 -2.53 6.21 -2.41

1.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.29 4.96

7.40 2.84 2.04 0.55 0.92 0.77 1.20 12.19 6.58

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