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Banking of Pakistan

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Submitted By aliuims
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Banks and Bank Systems / Volume 1, Issue 2, 2006
© Hshin-Yu Liang, Alan Reichert, 2006
19
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC
GROWTH AND BANKING SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
Hshin-Yu Liang, Alan Reichert
Abstract
Given that the causal relationship between changes in a country’s financial sector development
(FSD) and its rate of economic growth is expected to be sensitive to the country’s stage of economic development, two sets of country data are analyzed: Emerging/Developing countries and Advanced countries. While the results of the Granger causality and the Odedokun model yield mixed results, the production function multivariate approach appears to be more informative. The pooled models consistently indicate a strong supply-leading relationship between FSD and aggregate output. At the same time, the results of the single equation estimates appear to suggest that the impact of FSD is less pervasive today than in the earlier Odedokun study. Perhaps over time the level of FSD has become more uniform as the level of international trades has increased, promoting the globalization of the financial markets. Thus, this evidence of a reduced emphasis on a “supply-leading” relationship may reflect a changing role for FSD in the economic development process. Furthermore, as suggested by Granger causality tests, at some point in the economic growth cycle, the driving force turns into a “demand-following” relationships, as increased economic growth leads to higher income and education levels, which in turn generates greater demands for more sophisticated financial and risk management services. The study has important implications for financial policies which impact efficiency and the structure of the financial system.
Key words: financial market development, banking sector growth
JEL classifaction: G21

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