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Boeing 777

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Boeing 777

Aviones para transportar entre 100 y 500 pasajeros.
Frank Shrontz (CEO), misión de aumentar rentabilidad 12% actual.

Octubre 1990, lanzamiento boeing 777, capacidad 350-390 pasajeros, contaban con orden de pedido de United Airlines.

Pesimistas
Señalaban que Airbus y McDonell ya habían anunciado existencia de aviones para este nicho y contaban con pedidos, generando disminución de precios.
Estimaban gastos de I&D por USD 4-5 mil MM, superando el doble de B757 y B767. Invasión en Kuwait generaría disminución en viajes aéreos.

Optimistas
Obtendría como mínimo el 54% histórico en el nicho, además Boeing esperaba que los viajes se duplicaran al 2005, además, desgate de aviones significaría una Dda reemplazo de 640 nuevas unidades y el gasto en I&D podría podría utilizarse en nuevos modelos como el 747.

Habían pasado 2 1/2 años desde primeros intentos de diseño.
“Acciones habían disminuido desde invasión a Kuwait, acusando incremento en precio de petróleo, aumentando precios y el debilitamiento de las economías” Value Line

Industria:
3 grandes cias. (90% Mº). Boeing (53%), Airbus (18%) y McDonnell (19%).
Airbus, creada hace 20 años, segundo puesto y aún no era rentable.

Mcdonnell, Principalmente contratista de aviones defensa. Aviones comerciales sólo aportaban 1/3 de los ingresos. Disminución de gasto en Defensa y entrada de Airbus había generado deterioro económico, con deuda por 4,9 mil MM, leverage de 1,5.

Boeing, líder mundial en fabricación de aviones comerciales, mitad de las ventas de aviones dentro de USA. Dos líneas de negocio, Defensa y Comerciales. Pese a que el primero había presentado pérdidas en los últimos años, prestó apoyo a aviones comerciales a través de la fabricación de partes y diseño y elaboración de sistemas electrónicos. También se agregaron aportes en I&D.

Demanda:
Ingresos por venta 1989 de aviones comerciales, MM$25 millones, se esperaba incremento de tráfico aéreo de 5.2% por año en los próximos 15 años. Lo anterior implicaba un aumento del mercado MM$165 millones para el 2005.
La demanda se segmenta por capacidad de pasajeros y autonomía de vuelo, los precios de los aviones van de U$35 (737) a U$145 millones (747-400).
Los fabricantes intentan competir en todos los segmentos.

Fabricación y ciclos de Vida:
Altos costos en I&D, a comienzos de los 90, costaba en promedio MM$4 millones comenzar a fabricar un avión con 1 a 20 años para recuperar lo invertido. Aviones de Boeing tenían patrón predecibles de ventas. Para el 777 estimaron los analistas que Boeing gasto en I&D cientos de millones en los 80 y sólo en el 1990 U$200 millones.
Boeing solicitó a 6 de sus clientes involucrarse en el diseño del 777 para satisfacer sus necesidades.

En el proceso de diseño y fabricación se utilizaron tecnologías CAD/CAM lo cual se esperaba ahorrase un 20% de los U$4.000 a U$5.000 millones estimados en desarrollo.
Los analistas estimaban que los costos de I&D del 777 llegarían a los U$4.467 millones, más U$1.500 millones por nuevas instalaciones y U$2.500 millones en programas de capacitación y entrenamiento.
Por lo anterior, la compañía estimó en U$130 millones el valor de venta de los 777, sin embargo los analistas arguyeron que dicho valor sería empujado a los U$100 millones por las presiones de competencia de los A330/A340 y el MD 11.

El 777 fue creado para cumplir con la demanda de segmento de mercado de más rápido crecimiento, por ello Boeing estimaba que en los próximos 15 años, 2/3 de la demanda estaría en ese segmento. Si la Compañía mantenía su MS de 50%, podría alcanzar ventas de 1.000 unidades los primeros 10 años. Se estimaba la vida útil del 777 de 30 a 40 años.

Costo de Capital:
Se esperaba que la tasa de impuestos real futura de Boeing fuera de 34%.
La rentabilidad de los Bonos del Tesoro en Oct 1990 llegó al 8.82% y el promedio de prima de riesgo del mercado de los últimos 64 años se calculó en un 5.4%.
Los analistas señalaban que Boeing era en realidad dos empresas separadas; Defensa (relativamente estable) y Comercial (más volátil)

¿Cual es la motivación comercial de por el que boeing desarrolla el nuevo modelo?
- Ofrecer a los clientes una serie completa de aviones que cumpla con los requisitos para transportar a aproximadamente de 100 a 500 pasajeros. Boeing 777 permitirá ofrecer el producto justo a una demanda de mercado cambiante de los 90 y los años venideros.
- Crecimiento promedio de la industria anual de 5.2% durante los próximos 15 años y doblar la demanda al 2005.
- Promesa de menor costo en su clase
- Rutas serían muy rentables para este tipo de avión principalmente por Asia.
- Riesgos: Que la demanda no se cumpla, que el crecimiento económico no fuera el proyectado, que Boeing mantuviera su participación de mercado sobre 50%. Mayor estimación de rendimiento por sobre sus competidores. Boeing creía que los viajes aéreos se duplicarían al año 2005, creando una gran demanda de nueva capacidad. Mayor riesgo es el alto nivel en I&D.

¿Es correcto el pronóstico de flujo de fondos de este proyecto ?
Evaluación de supuestos:
1. Precio por Avión: Se ubica en el rango máximo de venta y no en un promedio entre el mínimo de U$100 mill y máximo U$ 130 mill.
2. Horizonte de evaluación: Vida útil entre 30 y 40 años del Boeing 777, por lo que es correcto evaluar a 35 años los flujos.
3. Supuesto de Producción: Promedio de 9 aviones por mes.
4. Los ingresos están acordes a la demanda proyectada al 2015 del orden de un mercado total de mill USD 93.500, del cual Boeing mantendría participación de mercado del 50% y considerando que la venta del 777, representa 2/3 de las ventas totales.
5. Inflación es cercana a las cifras históricas de EE.UU.

¿ Que tasa de descuento debería calcularse ?

Re = Rf + Beta * (Prima de Riesgo) = 8,82 + 0,81* 5,4
Re = 8,82 + 4,37 = 13,19 %

WACC = ( 280 / 13.278 ) * (8,375 * 250 / 280 + 9,31% * 30 / 280) * (1-34%) + ( 6.131 / 13.278 )* 13,19% = 6,2%

Pero se deben ajustar pasivos totales, restando Cuentas x Pagar y en general el Pasivo Espontáneo.

Total Pasivo y Patrimonio Neto = 13.278 – 4.932 – 291 -174 – 25 = 6.411

Calculando nuevo WACC con pasivos ajustados.

WACC = ( 280 / 6.411 ) * (8,375 * 250 / 280 + 9,31% * 30 / 280) * (1-34%) + ( 6.131 / 6411 )* 13,19% = 12,85 %

Este es el WACC de Boeing completo, no solo de su unidad de aviones comerciales.

Para calcular el de aviones comerciales, se debe utilizar el Beta del segmento de aviones comerciales, para ello se utiliza el Beta de Northrop cuyo % de ingresos es elevado en el segmento de defensa, pero se debe desapalancar y luego apalancar al nivel de endeudamiento de Boeing.

Beta Mercado = Beta Apalancado = Beta Northrop = Bu = Bl / (1 + (1-T)*D/C)
Bu = 0,74* (1+(1-0,34)*1,288) = 1,37  Beta desapalancado de Northrop o Beta de Defensa.

Beta Apalancado Defensa Boeing = 1,37 * (1+(1-0,34)*0,018) = 1,39

Beta Boeing = Beta Apalancado Defensa * (Ingresos Defensa / Total Ingresos) + Beta Apalancado Comercial * (Ingresos Comercial / Total Ingresos)

Despejando:

Beta Apalancado Comercial = (Beta Boeing – Beta Apalancado Defensa * Part. Ingresos) / ( Part. Ingresos Comercial ) = (0,81 – 1,39* 26%) / 74% = 0,61

Con esto cambia el WACC como tasa de descuento, y este debe ser del orden de

Re = Rf + Beta * (Prima de Riesgo) = 8,82 + 0,61* 5,4 Re = 8,82 + 3,294 = 12,11 % = WACC

¿El proyecto del boeing aumenta el valor de las acciones de Boeing ?

Revisando el anexo 7, se puede inferir que el menor TIR exigido, en el caso mas pesimista, corresponde a 13,9% con 700 unidades vendidas a precio de millUSD 100, y en el caso de subir gastos de R&D al 5% y tener un GAV de 7% el TIR es de 13,5%, siendo en ambos casos superior al WACC de 12,11%, por lo tanto como TIR > WACC el proyecto genera valor y es rentable para Boeing realizarlo.

Si utilizamos las cifras históricas, R&D 3%, GAV 4%, la TIR del proyecto es de 18,9% supera ampliamente el WACC por lo tanto el proyecto genera valor para los accionistas.

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