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a. What will happen to existing supply avenues?
Marijuana is mostly sold on the black market, except in states that have legalized the drug. In those states most have stores with specialized licenses, much like a permit to sell alcohol. The supply avenues will change from secret black markets to a farm economy trade system. b. Will legalization significantly change demand? How?
Since marijuana use has yet to recede under prohibition, like alcohol did, you can expect a slight change in demand but not a huge jump. 7.6 million frequent users will not have to rely on black market trade and will be able to purchase legally. The 23.9 regular users will also have a place of business to buy. Marijuana market watchers expect there to be an uptick as states legalize but then a slight decline as the novelty will wear off. c. Would one expect prices to change significantly? How?
Prices may changes slightly. At this time it costs approximately $15 a gram and $2500 for a pound of marijuana, according the Dan Schneider’s article Pot Economics. If the United States were to open the market for export they could expect a price drop due to competing markets that are already wide open in Uruguay and Mexico. Uruguay has an $1 per gram price. Exporting costs would have to include packaging and freight costs. d. What would be the costs and benefits to governments, both in changes in enforcement requirements and in potential tax revenue?
There is a potential taxes revenue base of $500 million dollars for the state of Washington since marijuana was legalized. Colorado has a 10% excise tax and a10% recreational use tax on all sales, creating millions of dollars in tax revenue. The law enforcement requirements will change from destroying farms and revenue paths to auditing licensed facilities much like an alcohol permitted facility. There would also be an increased need to educate the public on use, and using a reputable sourse.
References: Schneider, D (2014) Pot Economics. (cover story) Dollars & Sense, (311),11.

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