...II. Greece public debt 1. Current situation Greece has been in the public debt crisis since 2009. The Greek public debt crisis is one of a number of current European sovereign-debt crises and is believed to have been caused by a combination of structural weaknesses of the Greek economy coupled with the incomplete economic, tax and banking unification of the European Monetary Union. Those days, Greece has confronted with three main related problems: government trust crisis, declining liquidity capacity and high risk of bankruptcy. a) Government trust crisis The prestige of Greek government was impaired seriously during crisis time. Greece borrowed uncontrollable amounts from the financial market to ensure the liquidity for the budget deficit. The budget deficit limit allowed in Eurozone was only 3% of the GDP, while this level of Greece in 2009 was 13.6% and might even increase to over 14%. To cover the overspending in the past years, the Greek government had reported data inconsistently and bias, containing various unusual sections in budget. This action drew to the negative consequences on the reputation of the Greek government on the domestic as well as international market. The credit ascertaining organization successively downgraded Greece recently. Within the first four months of 2010 S&P had lowered continuously the credibility coefficient of Greece, from A- to BBB+ and BB+. b) Declining liquidity capacity Unpaid debt of Greece was nearly 400 billion...
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...CRISIS IN GREECE: STUDY OF THE FACTORS THAT LED TO THE CRISIS. A Research Paper: Under The Guidance of:Dr Somesh Kumar Mathur Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur Pankaj Kumar Y8333 Sanchit Singhal Y8442 Sulabh Boudh Y8513 INTRODUCTION Greece is currently facing a very severe crisis, with expectations of a sovereign default as Greece confronts with the second highest budget deficit, as well as the second highest debt to GDP ratio in the EU. The paper uses insights from the literature to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in Greece. The crisis itself is very likely to be a result of: The gradual worsening of Greek macroeconomic Fundamentals over 2000-2009 to levels discrepant with other EU members. A shift in market expectations, from a scenario of credible commitment to future EU participation to a scenario of non-credible EU commitment without fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. The pricing by markets of a (previously nonexistent) default risk that follows the withdrawal of an implicit guarantee on Greek debt by other EMU countries (mainly Germany). Interestingly, our account of the 3 factors sparking and escalating the crisis also helps explain why prices on Greek government bonds have not recovered but continued to plummet following the announcement of the EU/IMF rescue plan. Our analysis suggests that the involvement of an external institution like the...
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...global financial crisis begins, but the global recession endures, some point to the threat of a second wave of the crisis: sovereign debt crises. Greece is currently facing a classic sovereign debt crisis. Greece accumulated high levels of debt during the decade before the crisis, when capital markets were highly liquid. As the crisis has unfolded, and capital markets have become more illiquid, Greece may no longer be able to roll over its maturing debt obligations. Some analysts have discussed the possibility of a Greek default. To avoid such a default, however, the Greek government has introduced a variety of austerity measures and, on April 23, 2010, formally requested financial assistance from the other 15 European Union (EU) member states that use the euro as their national currency (the Euro zone) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).Greece’s debt crisis has raised a host of questions about the merits of the euro and the prospects for future European integration, with some calling for more integration and others less. Some have also pointed to possible problems associated with a common monetary policy but diverse national fiscal policies. This report provides an overview of the crisis; outlines the major causes of the crisis, focusing on both domestic and international factors; examines how Greece, the Eurozone members, and the IMF have responded to the crisis; and highlights the broader implications of Greece’s debt crisis, . Greece’s Debt Crisis: Background Build-Up...
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...capitalvia.com G lobal Research Limited I MPACT of G REECE White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited Introduction Historically, financial crisis tend to lead to sharp economic downturns, low government revenues, widening government deficits, high levels of debt, pushing many governments into defaults. This is called SOVEREGIN DEBT CRISIS. GREECE is currently facing this, it accumulated high levels of debt during the decade before the crisis, when capital markets were highly liquid. As the crisis has unfolded and there was liquidity crunch in world economy, Greece may no longer be able to rol over its maturing debt obligations. Build – Up To The Current Crisis Between 2001-2008, Greece reported budget deficits averaged 5% per year, compared to Eurozone average of 2%. Also, its current account deficits averaged to 9% per year compared to Eurozone average of 1% Greece funded these twin deficits by borrowing in international capital markets, leaving it with chronically high external debt (115% of GDP in 2009) Some of the facts which can be depicted from following charts : www.capitalvia.com 2 White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis G lobal Research Limited How Country Debts And Budget Deficits Compare? Projected budget deficit for 2009 Budget deficit figs as % of GDP Debt as % of GDP 68.6% UK 13% 112.6% Greece 12.5% 54.3% Spain 11.25% 65.8% Ireland 10.75% 114.6% Italy 5.3% 74.3% ...
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...www.capitalvia.com Global Research Limited IMPACT of GREECE White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited Introduction Historically, financial crisis tend to lead to sharp economic downturns, low government revenues, widening government deficits, high levels of debt, pushing many governments into defaults. This is called SOVEREGIN DEBT CRISIS. GREECE is currently facing this, it accumulated high levels of debt during the decade before the crisis, when capital markets were highly liquid. As the crisis has unfolded and there was liquidity crunch in world economy, Greece may no longer be able to rol over its maturing debt obligations. Build – Up To The Current Crisis Between 2001-2008, Greece reported budget deficits averaged 5% per year, compared to Eurozone average of 2%. Also, its current account deficits averaged to 9% per year compared to Eurozone average of 1% Greece funded these twin deficits by borrowing in international capital markets, leaving it with chronically high external debt (115% of GDP in 2009) Some of the facts which can be depicted from following charts : www.capitalvia.com 2 White Paper - Impact of Greece Crisis Global Research Limited How Country Debts And Budget Deficits Compare? Projected budget deficit for 2009 Budget deficit figs as % of GDP Debt as % of GDP UK 13% Greece 12.5% Spain 11.25% Ireland 54.3% 68.6% 112.6% 65.8% 10.75% 114.6% 5.3% Italy Germany 3.5% 74.3% Source:...
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...suddenly announced that the 2009 government budget deficit and public debt to GDP ratio is expected to reach 12.7% and 113%, respectively, far exceeding the EU's "stability and growth pact" provides for 3% and 60 percent limit. In view of the significant deterioration in the financial position of the Greek government, the world's three major credit rating agencies, Fitch, Standard & Poor's and Moody's credit ratings have been lowered Greece's sovereign Greek debt crisis kicked off. With sovereign credit rating was lowered, the Greek government borrowing costs increase sharply. Greek government had to take austerity measures in Greece held another round of strike activity, economic development worse. Until February 2012, Greece, Germany and France and other countries still rely on rescue loans to survive. In addition to Greece, the financial situation of Portugal, Ireland and Spain and other countries also attracted attention from investors, European countries sovereign credit rating was lowered. Greece was just entering the euro zone. According to the provisions of some countries of the European Community signed in 1992 "Maastricht Treaty", the European Economic Monetary Union member states must meet two key standards, namely the budget deficit it can not exceed 3 percent of GDP, the debt ratio below 60% of gross domestic product. However, the accession of Greece just to see yourself far away from these two criteria. This alliance Greece and the euro zone is not a good thing...
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...The root-causes of the Greek sovereign debt crisis Basil Manessiotis paper presented at the 2nd Bank of Greece workshop on the economies of Eastern European and Mediterranean countries Athens, 6 May 2011 1 Introduction To better understand the current sovereign debt crisis in Greece, a longer view is warranted The 20 year period 1989-2009 is bounded by two major fiscal crises in Greece: the 1989-1993 crisis, and the ongoing crisis. In both crises deficits exceeded 15,0% of GDP. In between, Greece entered the Economic and Monetary Union and adopted the Euro To facilitate discussion the 20 year period will be divided into two parts: the 1989-1999 period, and the 2000-2009 period. 2 1989-1999: securing EMU membership The 1989-1993 sub-period: Macroeconomic developments Weak economic activity (1.2% average growth) Very high inflation (16.8% annual average) Very high real and nominal interest rates Low fixed investment (1.5% annual average) Fiscal developments Very high general government deficits (13.6% of GDP average) The 1990 deficit reached 15.9% of GDP Primary deficit averaged 4.3% of GDP Fast accumulation of debt Debt ratio increased from 69.0% of GDP in 1989 to 110.1% of GDP in 1993 Other reasons for debt accumulation Very high interest payments From 6.8% of GDP in 1989 to 11.4% of GDP in 1993 3 TABLE 1 Selected Macroeconomic Indicators (annual average rate) 1989-1993 Real GDP growth Fixed investment growth Inflation (CPI) General Government...
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...The European sovereign debt crisis Introduction At the beginning of 2010, its emerged that the sovereign debt crisis would drastically spread through the entire European Union since Portugal, Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland, which are jointly known as the PIIGS were in facing the significant increase in their deficit as well as public debt. The events about the crisis were closely tied to Greece since there were doubts about its ability to offset the huge sovereign debt it owed as well as government deficits. This crisis of confidence in Greece resulted in the significant downgrade of the Greek bonds into a junk status as well as the Greek bond yield spreads notably rose (Brutti and Sauré, 2016). The financial unrest gradually spread to the entire European Union zone and the European stocks tumbled, and the euro currency reached 2-year lows. Nonetheless, Greece was not the only stressed economy in The Euro Zone, in fact, it turned out to be a tip of the iceberg since other nations in the European Union were trailing on the Same road. Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland had accumulated huge budget deficits as well as increased public debt to the Gross Domestic product ratios. Portugal had an economic boom that was being sustained by the significantly lower borrowing rates. Nevertheless, it was hit by expeditious wage inflation which adversely affected the local companies’ competition with other foreign firms (CAI and LI, 2012). The sovereign debt crisis in European region has raised...
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...Greek debt crisis in 2009 occurred as a result of an understated financial deficit and extreme spending. The stagnation of the Greek economy and the demotion in their debt rating did not aid their financial situation. Greece was then faced with the possibility of sovereign debt default. The failure of Greece to pay their debts required bailouts from the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While the loan bailouts have eased short term liquidity problems, Greece still remained in financial turmoil which may even deteriorate. This research paper aims to explore the history behind the Greek debt crisis, the implications it has globally and on South Africa as well as the lessons that can be learnt from the crisis. Origins of the Greek debt crisis 2.1 Historical development: 2001-2008/09 In 2001 Greece became the twelfth member to join the Euro zone and was permitted to use the Euro (€) as its currency. Greece joined the Euro zone because of the benefits associated with being part of the Euro area. These benefits were essential to the economy of Greece who had a record of unpredictable inflation (Gibson, Hall & Tavlas, 2012). In addition, after Greece changed to the Euro they had the freedom to borrow money from foreign capital markets. During 2003-2007 government records showed Greece to be growing at 4% a year which gave investors’ confidence and made Greek bonds a popular investment. However, Greece falsified...
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...Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................... 2 2. THE CRISIS ........................................................................................................................... 2 3. THE WAY TO THE CRISIS...................................................................................................... 3 4. HOW DOES THE CRISIS AFFECT THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM? .................................... 4 5. WHAT IF GREECE LEFT THE EURO ZONE? ........................................................................... 5 6. IF GREECE HAS RECEIVED BILLIONS IN BAILOUTS, WHY IS THERE STILL A CRISIS? ............. 6 7. CONCLUSION....................................................................................................................... 7 8. BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................... 8 1|Page Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis 1. Introduction The economy of Greece is the 45th largest in the world with a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of $238 billion per annum. It is also the 51st largest in the world by purchasing power parity at $286 billion per annum. As of 2013, Greece is the thirteenth-largest economy in the 28-member European Union. Greece is classified as an advanced, high-income economy, and...
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...EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS – ORIGIN, CONSEQUENCES AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS F RA N TI Š E K N E M E T H Abstract What is the European debt crisis? As the head of the Bank of England referred to it in October 2011, it is “the most serious financial crisis at least since the 1930s, if not ever.”1 In fact, the European debt crisis is the shorthand term for the region’s struggle to pay the debts it has built up in recent decades. Five of the region’s countries – Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain – have, to varying degrees, failed to generate enough economic growth to make their ability to pay back bondholders the guarantee it’s intended to be. Although these five were seen as being the countries in immediate danger of a possible default, the crisis has far-reaching consequences that extend beyond their borders to the world as a whole. Introduction The global economy has experienced slow growth since the U.S. financial crisis of 2008-2009, which has exposed the unsustainable fiscal policies of countries in Europe and around the globe. Greece, which spent heartily for years and failed to undertake fiscal reforms, was one of the first to feel the pinch of weaker growth. When growth slows, so do tax revenues – making high budget deficits unsustainable. Greece's economy has struggled since the country joined the euro in 2001. In 2004, it admitted its budget deficit was higher than allowed under rules of entry. By 2008 the government had narrowly passed a belt-tightening budget, designed...
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...Greece – Crisis and Solutions Paper International Economics Greece - Crisis and Solutions June 25, 2013 Content 1. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………………2 2. Greece joining the Eurozone…...............................................................................3 3. Budget structure that lead to the crisis…………………………………………………………………6 4. Supporting and rescue measures…………………………………………………………………………9 5. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………………….11 6. References……………………………………………............................................................13 1 1. Introduction In the last years the severe debt crisis of Greece has posed a large challenge to the member states of the Eurozone. It is threatening the stability of the European Monetary Union (EMU). After having piled up over 300 Billion Euros of debt, in 2010 the market mistrust in Greece dramatically increased, especially as the newly elected government revealed the incorrectness of the financial statistics of previous years. Finally, on the 23rd of April 2010, Greece was threatened by national bankruptcy and requested help of the other Eurozone members and the International Monetary Fund. Although Greece is one of the smaller economies of the Eurozone, its daring default has great effects on the whole community. Now then, what happen if Greece “Grexit”? The Pros are that a return to the old currency like the Drachma would have the effect of depreciate in value, it would become more competitively in...
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...Background: As the consequence of the 2008 U.S. banking crisis, Europe was hit by one of the worst debt crisis. Starting from Greece in autumn 2009, the crisis spread to other European countries, especially Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal and forced European policy makers to take many actions to limit its consequences (BOG, 2014, p.42). While others European economies such as Spain, Portugal avoided the severe crisis by following advisory strategy like austerity, reducing public spending…, Greece situation did not improved. To help Greece improve its situation, the IMF and Eurozone governments sealed a deal for two bailouts in 2010 and 2012, totalling €240 billion. On July 5, 2015 the majority of Greek citizens voted to reject the Europe’s plan to bail out the country’s economy, which caused the fear about the potential exit from the European Union, Greece’s future and world economy as well. Despite that fact, Eurozone leaders still reached an agreement on a third bailout programme to save Greece from bankruptcy on July 13. Although Greece overcame the severe situation, there is no indicator that the crisis will stop. This essay will discuss Greek situation involving 3 main issues, which are mistakes leading to crisis, financial regulation and the role of banks, potential financial contagion and moral hazard. Discussion: 1. Mistakes leading to crisis: One of mistakes leading to crisis was supposed to involve economic statistical data fraud. According to a comprehensive...
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...This essay will talk about what is currently going in Europe with the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis and the fiscal state the European Union is in, it is important and interesting because it is still current affairs and there are various factors and decisions that have helped the path that the crisis is going in, this essay will look at the crisis but on the implications and problems that European union face as well as what they have faced already and whether the European Central Bank are doing enough to improve the situation and what their plans are for the future. A sovereign bond serves as a floor for interest rates banks charged for loans and for the pricing of other financial contracts and securities. The global financial crisis led to the deterioration of government budgets and finances as nations utilized public expenditures to provide stability and stimulus. The Eurozone suffered because of heavy borrowing practices, property pebbles and living above their means. The Eurozone debt crisis started because Greece who had borrowed heavily in international capital markets over the past decade were turned against by investors this is because Greece in 2009 admitted that they had double the amount of debt that was allowed in the Eurozone limit. Ratings agencies started to downgrade Greek bank and government debt, and there was fear of Greece defaulting and not being able to pay back its debts but the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou insisted otherwise however this was...
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...Greece's Debt Crisis Greece is a country in financial peril. A series of missteps and misguidance led them to become a burden for the rest of the world to endure. Corruption and pitfalls fueled a downfall that may never be repaid to the residents of Greece, or to the European Union who were forced to bail them out. The question is, however, how all of this happened? It all started in the 2000's with the adoption of the Euro. It was one of the first countries to do so, under the pretense that it had achieved "economic convergence" with the other countries involved. Upon launch, the Euro surpassed the dollar in value, and Greece saw access to cheap capital, giving confidence to their investors. The investors took advantage of this, and accumulated massive public debt despite the EU claiming it would prevent so from happening. Then, in 2002, it became clear that Greece was among others under false pretenses. Greece had cooked its books to enter into the brotherhood this new currency offered. Exact numbers were not revealed until 2004, when it became knowledge that Greece had understated its budget deficit by 6.8%. This number is staggering, considering the acceptable budget deficit is only 3% to begin with. Yet as the Olympic games approached, the Greek government decided to do nothing, and say nothing, rather than address the problem at hand. Soon, the crisis was in full swing. By 2007 the crisis had started to affect not only Greece, who was hit the hardest, but also the...
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