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Case Analysis – Specialty Toys

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Case Analysis – Specialty Toys

1. Senior sales forecaster predicted and expected demand of 20,000 units with .95 probability that demand would be between 10,000 and 30,000 units.

P (10,000 < x< 30,000) = .95
(30,000-20,000)/1.96 = 5,102

X = the demand of Weather Teddy
Mean µ = 20,000
Standard Deviation α = 5,102

The normal distribution of the demand for the Weather Teddy is represented in the graph below. This is based off of the forecast of previous selling history of other similar toys. The forecast shows that the demand for the Weather Teddy will be at 20,000 units, but with a probability of .95 of selling anywhere between 10k to 20k units. Therefore, with the information given the standard deviation of this forecast is at 5,102.

2. With various order quantities suggested by members of the management team, it would be wise to compute the probability of a stock-out for each of the order quantities suggested. The probability of a stock-out is the inverse of the probability that the quantity sold is less than or equal to the amount purchased by the company.
1st Formula used: z = (x - µ) / σ
The probability of a stock out is calculated by subtracting the probability found in the chart from 1. Suggested Quantity to Order | Probability of a Stock-Out | 15,000 | 83.65% | 18,000 | 65.17% | 24,000 | 21.77% | 28,000 | 5.82% |

3. Based on the various order quantities suggested by members of the management team, a simple profit analysis should be projected for each suggested quantity and based on 3 scenarios of units sold.

In order perform this analysis, the Total Cost of manufacturing should be calculated based on a cost of $16/unit. Next, the number of units sold for the full price of $24/unit must be calculated as well as the number of units left at the end of the season that can be sold at a discounted price of $5/unit.

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