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Case Scenario

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This case gives us an opportunity to reflect on the difficulties of strategic planning and the strengths and weakness of the process used . It also provides a comprehensive introduction to scenario planning.

Scenarios are possible views of the world that provide context in wich managers can make a decision
In a range of possible worlds, decisions are better informed and the strategy is more likely to succeed
In scenarios we can understand the drivers of change and have more control of the situation.

1. What are the strengths and weaknesses of scenario planning?

Strenghts
Allows one to project the future back into the present to help articulate the strategies necessary to achieve the point in future the scenario is conducive to success or help implement strategies to avoid the scenario in cases where it is not going to be successful
- Allow a shared view of the future to be developed
- Provide the oportunity for an organization to consider how they want to be positioned in that future
- Promotes flexibility and responsiveness
- Permit to see the mayor drivers of change: globalisation, economics, technology,
- It can be used to do Risk assesment, identify early warning indicators and decide how will we respond.

Weakness
Simplification of the future: Difficult to predict the future as the number of variables used maybe less |than required for a better plan.
Scenario planning is expensive because it requires a huge commitment of time: time consumer and there are necesary consultants
Dificult to convince people about how useful could be to do the exercise, because it doesn't affect their daily job
It could be too focused in the internal problems, how the participants think. A financial guy will be centered in things that affectsthe funtional area, problems that he understand and control
It can be ambiguous, because it requires to think freely in what could happen, is necesary to be severe when they construct the framework

2. What is your evaluation of UPS´s 1997 scenario planning exercise? What is your evaluation of Horizon 2017 exercise? How do the two efforts compare?

It provided for a common basis to allow investigating growth opportunities and competitive strategies. As expected, the planning exercise was predictably confusing as it would be difficult to say what would happen in the world. It helped tremendously by allowing the company managers to think beyond the business-planning horizon. It forced the company to answer several what-if questions and respond to strategic threats.

The 2017 planning exercise was necessary to look into the future further. It was a mere add-on to the1997 in the sense that the basic framework was now laid out and one needed to adjust to newer realities. A few differences: there was regional focus as opposed to just global, participants were more globally diverse and from lower levels.
2017: more detailed
1997: Basic framework

In both: Participants from operations were excluded, not break day to day responsabilities

3. What are the other key elements of UPS´s approach to strategic planning ? In particular , what is your evaluation of : the UPS charter; the Centennial Plan ;the strategy Road Map ?
a) Charter is very customer-focused and is poised for success as it clearly articulates how UPS makes their customers successful.

b)Centennial plan provided the themes and broad over-arching direction. Four strategic imperatives were defined:

Winning Team
Valued add solutions
Customer Focus
Enterprise Excellence

c)The strategy roadmap provided took the four elements of the Plan and came up with 100 distinct projects to implement the strategy.

4. Why was John McDevitt put in charge of ´strategic integration` ? Should he remain in that role?
JohnM was put in charge because progress on some initiative seemed to have stalled. He was considered by many to be the champion of strategy execution and had the necessary skills to reach consensus. Without him, Esken would have been the only one to resolve issues at that level.
I think he should remain in that role because there are different opinion about what was being accomplished and how to get things done. He can make sure that all teams delivered on what they were being asked

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