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Caso Home Depot

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Submitted By thaisfujita
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Caso Home Depot
Alunas Alessandra Eiko e Thaís Fujita

1. Variáveis-chave de geração de riqueza * Abertura de novas lojas * Crescimento orgânico (same-store sales) * Custos e despesas * Necessidade de capital de giro * Investimentos em imobilizado * Depreciação (efeito fiscal)

2. Valor do equity e preço jsuto por ação

* Cálculos: * Sales(t) = Sales/stores(t) * Number of stores(t) * Number of stores(t) = #Stores(t-1)*[1+%Crecimento lojas(t)] * Sales/store(t) = sales/store (t-1) * [1+%Crescimento do faturamento(t)] * EBITDA(t) = Sales(t) * Margem EBITDA(t) * Depreciação e amortização(t) = Sales(t) * %Depreciação/Sales(t) * EBIT(t) = EBITDA(t) - Depreciação e amortização(t) * Alíquota do imposto de renda = Média histórica (1998 – 2001) * NOPAT = EBIT * (1 - Alíquota do imposto de renda) * Working capital(t) = Sales(t) * Working capital/Sales(t) * Variação do working capital(t) = Working capital(t) - Working capital(t-1) * Capex(t) = Sales(t) * Capex/Sales(t) * Free Cash Flow(t) = NOPAT(t) + Depreciação(t) - Variação do working capital(t) - Capex(t) * Valor terminal = Free Cash Flow(2018) / (WACC – growth) * WACC = (1-Wd) *Kd*(1-aliquota) + We*Ke * Ke = rf rate + beta * MRP * We = total stakeholders equity (2000) / total liabilities and stakeholders equity (balanço) * Wd = 1 – We * Equity Value = Valor presente líquido das operações + Caixa - Dívida Bruta + Caixa e equivalentes - Capital Leases - Minority interest * Preço justo por ação = Equity value / Número de ações

* As ses variáveis grifadas acima, são as variáveis que sensibilizamos no modelo. Nossas premissas seguem abaixo: * Crescimento das lojas - dado do caso (Financial and Operating Performance - pg 3) com crescimento diminuindo até ficar constante em 3% em 17 anos (caso - pg. 9 fala que o crescimento internacional será muito importante nos próximos 5 a 15 anos, assim, achamos que como a Home Depot é uma empresa que está crescendo bastante, colocamos que seu crescimento será constante em 17 anos); * Crescimento do Faturamento de 9% inicialmente é provável de acordo com o caso, dominuindo ao longo tempo; * Margem EBITDA – * Depreciação/Sales - De acordo com o caso, o grupo achou conveniente a taxa de depreciação permanecer contrante ao longo do tempo, visto que, historicamente, esse valor permanece bem constante; * Working capital/Sales - Normalmente, o working cap. cresce ao passo semelhante ao faturamento, assim, o grupo optou por deixar a margem como sendo a média histórica, com uma leve redução no final, como uma suposta melhoria de eficiência, por exemplo, no controle de estoques, após uma maior maturação das lojas; * CAPEX/sales - seria mais alto no início, em que a Home Depot está abrindo lojas e se expandindo, diminuindo ao longo dos anos, passando pela média histórica, e atingindo 5% num período de menor investimento e maturação das lojas; * Ademais, a cerca da Inflação - em janeiro de 2001, a inflação acumlada dos últimos 12 meses nos EUA era de 3,7% (site: Usinflationcalculator.com) e, em paises desenvolvidos, com taxas de inflaçã estável, a inflação é em torno 2% (por isso a meta para 2018 ficou como 2%.

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Valor Terminal
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