...China is under pressure from US to devalue its currency. US believes that due to low value of Chinese Yuan, china is more competitive in exports vis-à-vis US and hence large trade deficits are leading to job losses in the US. However Chinese government claims China is a sovereign nation has the right to manage its currency and the low value of Yuan is actually helping US manage its budget deficit and by buying US treasury bills it was preventing the rise of US interest rates . Moreover many countries have also established their production base in China and hence any major fluctuations in the currency would hurt them. However this situation is potentially inflationary and will work only if the China is able to maintain a high growth rate. Moreover if dollar depreciates the Chinese government will have to write off its dollar assets in form of US treasury bills. China in recent past claims to have pegged its currency to a basket of international currency, but even then dollar carries maximum weight. China has also done mild revaluation and allowed daily fluctuations to the range of 0.3% to 0.05%. However the pressure from US persist even though some countries such as Japan and Korea have engaged in processing trade from China and thus benefitted from low Yuan and retaining greater value of trade for themselves. There are several options available to China: Revalue its currency: It is estimated that if China revalues its currency say from 3-5 % it is estimated that the exports...
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...Chinese Yuan Bilateral Currency Swap Agreements. Nowadays internationalization of renminbi rises as many counties try to lessen their dependence on U.S. dollar. P.B.O.C. uses different instruments to drive expansion of RMB, weakening the U.S. dollar monopoly in the basket of the world reserve currencies. By 2013, the RMB is the 8th most traded currency in the world. On 17 August 2010, PBoC issued policy to allow Central Bank, RMB offshore Clearing Banks and offshore Participating Bank to invest the excess RMB in debt securities, in onshore Inter-bank Bond Market. In October, China further open up both FDI and ODI in RMB (Pilot RMB Settlement of Outward Direct Investment) and nominated Xinjiang as the first pilot province (which in early 2011 expanded to 20 pilot areas). In June 2013, United Kingdom became the first G-7 country to set up an official currency swap line with China. As of July 2014, 25 countries have signed the RMB Bilteral Swap Ageeement with PBoC with total facilities of over ¥2.7 trillion. These agreements tell us that China decided to increase the role of RMB in the world currency market. 2007: Creation of Dim Sum bonds and offshore RMB bond market The dim sum bond market generally refers to RMB-denominated bonds issued in Hong Kong. The majority of dim sum bond are denominated in CNH, but some are linked to CNY (but paid in USD). In July 2007, dim sum bonds worth a total of US$657 million were issued for the first time by China Development Bank. These financial...
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...Liberalization… with Chinese Characteristics: Can the Chinese Yuan become a Global Reserve Currency? Abstract China’s economy is growing ever larger, but is that enough to get the Chinese Renminbi (more commonly known as Yuan) to be accepted as a global market currency? This paper will look into the liberalization, but with Chinese characteristics, of five determining factors in becoming a country who’s currency is a global reserve currency. These factors are as follows: economic size, macroeconomic policies, flexible exchange rates, financial market development, and finally having an open capital account, and will ultimately prove the China is not quite the rising economic power some believe it to be (citation, 2012). Market Liberalization… with Chinese Characteristics In China, it is currently the year of the dragon, a symbol of good fortune and sign of intense power. With this symbol of fortune and power many Chinese are hoping for a year of economic prosperity, especially for the growth of the Renminbi, or more commonly known as the Yuan. In recent years, China has maintained that it’s “special” economy is pursuing a “market economy, but with Chinese characteristics”. Some of these characteristics include encouraging more of an international use of the currency, while being famous for their inflexibility with exchange rates, and not fully opening up the economy to the free flow of capital. However, the Yuan’s acceptance as a reserve currency will be based...
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...BOFIT Discussion Papers 19 • 2011 Zhichao Zhang, Nan Shi and Xiaoli Zhang China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification Bank of Finland, BOFIT Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT Discussion Papers Editor-in-Chief Laura Solanko BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2011 23.7.2011 Zhichao Zhang, Nan Shi and Xiaoli Zhang: China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification ISBN 978-952- 462-714-6 ISSN 1456-5889 (online) This paper can be downloaded without charge from http://www.bof.fi/bofit Suomen Pankki Helsinki 2011 BOFIT- Institute for Economies in Transition Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2011 Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ 3 Tiivistelmä ........................................................................................................................................... 4 1 2 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 5 Theoretical model ..................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 3 Policy goal .................................................................................................................... 12 Trade...
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...analysis is based primarily upon the Fung & Wong article, “China’s Renminbi: ‘Our Currency, Your Problem’?”. Valuation Controls Placed Upon the Renminbi Over the past couple decades China has maintained a high level of economic growth rate of approximately 9% per year. Recently, many countries began questioning the valuation of China’s currency, the Renminbi, and China’s exchange rate policies. These other countries pointed to China’s emergence as the third largest exporter of goods and the accumulation of $1.2 trillion (US$) in foreign currency reserves. In its defense, China asserted that the Renminbi was not undervalued and that its exchange rate policies helped maintain a stable economic environment. It also stated that countries running large trade and budget deficits, specifically with China, like the US, were attempting to use China as a scapegoat rather than the weaknesses of their own economies. Is the Renminbi Undervalued? It appears to me that the Renminbi is likely undervalued. Pegging the currency primarily to the United States Dollar (USD), and eventually to a basket of currencies dominated by the USD, may have created stability in the Chinese and Asian economies both during the Asian crisis and in the current period. However, this peg has undoubtedly reduced the cost of Chinese exports, making them considerably more competitive in unprotected markets, such as in US markets. Chinese officials’ claims that revaluing the Renminbi will likely slow China’s economic...
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...Chinese managed Float-format Summary : One of the ways China's economic rise was accomplished was by pegging its currency, the Chinese yuan to the United States dollar and instituting trading arrangements between the two nations. One of the arguments yuan against dollar is that it appears that China benefits more than the U.S. Manufacturers in the U.S. often put pressure on Congress to lobby China to appreciate its currency, citing the difficulty of competing against artificially cheap Chinese goods as a reason for change. Year after year, new bills are introduced by Congress demanding that China appreciate its currency so the yuan and dollar balance is more equalized. They claim the Chinese are protecting their trade superiority and the U.S. is forced to pay the price. Problem detecting : The problem from China's perspective is that appreciating the yuan could mean less foreign investment in China, deflation, lower wages and unemployment. Fewer exports will also diminish China's supply of dollars for investment, both inside and outside the country. China argues that the currency peg is meant to foster economic stability and abandoning the peg could result in an economic crisis. Some benefits of an undervalued yuan for the U.S. include lower prices for consumers, lower inflationary pressure and lower input prices for U.S. manufactures that use Chinese inputs. Alternatively, an undervalued yuan hurts U.S. industries that compete with cheap Chinese goods, thus hurting production...
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...China’s Renminbi: “Our Currency, Your Problem?” Problem Statement In 2006, China has undergone pressure by many countries including the United States. The U.S. believed that the renminbi (RMB), failed to appreciate eliminating job opportunities for other countries. However, China’s officials reacted by implying that China was a sovereign country with the right to choose its exchange rate policy. Pertinent Facts The exchange rate is one of the key factors that could possibly affect foreign profitability. In the case, Fung and Wong indicated in 2006, that China had become the world’s third-largest exporter with an estimated $970 billion and earning $1.2 trillion in foreign currency reserves (Fung). The U.S. and other countries are concerned that the Yuan was undervalued which will ultimately raise the demand for Chinese exports and decrease China's demand for imports from other countries. Becker states that if China keeps the dollar and the currencies of other countries artificially expensive compared to its currency it will create a problem towards other economies (Becker). The U.S. believes that China is manipulating the exchange rate to increase trade and dollar assets. The United States have also expressed extreme concern with China’s way of trade. For example, the U.S. questioned the fact that the renminbi is being a peg against the dollar. This case analysis will subsequently identify the following answers to the questions: * Should China...
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...Summarize and evaluate the arguments presented in the (A) case for and against the revaluation of the Renminbi. Provide your own assessment of the projected future direction of the RMB/USD exchange rate (using info provided in the case). China’s decision to release its currency from the decade long peg (approx. 8.28 Yuan per USD) raised multiple concerns within the global economic community. Many economists welcomed the decision while still others questioned it. Below is a brief description of the various arguments presented on the topic. Political: With the value of the Dollar decreasing over the recent years, the western governments are less pleased with China maintaining its currency at a fixed rate. The US and EU are of the opinion that the quasi-fixed exchange rate gives China a competitive advantage, creating a strain on their import surplus and thereby increasing their trade deficit with China. As of 2005, China’s exports and imports to and from the U.S was $86.9 and $27.6 Billion USD. Members of the US congress have threatened to impose tariffs against China if they do not agree to a revaluation. Allowing the Yuan to float would result in an increase in price of Chinese exports to the US and a decline in the price of US imports into China, hence narrowing their trade deficit. On the other hand, analysts argued that the increase in Yuan’s value between 94-01 was not an absolute result of inflation differentials between China and its trade partners. The large increase in...
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...Financial Markets & Institutions Group Assignment Yuan Devaluation Group 2 Group Members Kouadio Dieudonne XPGDM-18 Rohit Khandelwal XPGDM-28 Shruti Tibrewal XPGDM-32 COUNTRY AT A GLANCE Population | 1.364 billion | 2014 | GDP | $10.35 trillion | 2014 | GDP growth | 7.3% | 2014 | Inflation | 2.0% | 2014 | CHINA Economic Overview The Chinese economy experienced astonishing growth in the last few decades that catapulted the country to become the world's second largest economy. In 1978—when China started the program of economic reforms—the country ranked ninth in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) with USD 214 billion; 35 years later it jumped up to second place with a nominal GDP of USD 9.2 trillion. Since the introduction of the economic reforms in 1978, China has become the world’s manufacturing hub, where the secondary sector (comprising industry and construction) represented the largest share of GDP. However, in recent years, China’s modernization propelled the tertiary sector and, in 2013, it became the largest category of GDP with a share of 46.1%, while the secondary sector still accounted for a sizeable 45.0% of the country’s total output. Meanwhile, the primary sector’s weight in GDP has shrunk dramatically since the country opened to the world. China weathered the global economic crisis better than most other countries. In November 2008, the State Council unveiled a CNY 4.0 trillion (USD 585 billion) stimulus package in an...
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...How China’s Currency Manipulation Affects US Economy Howe School of Technology Management Principles of Economics How China’s Currency Manipulation Affects US Economy Currency intervention is the action of one or more governments, central banks, or speculators that increases or reduces the value of a particular currency against another currency – this is according to Wikipedia. From January until October in 2010 imports from China to the United States this year were $299,026.0 million and only $72,276.2 million in exports to China, leaving a U.S. trade deficit of -226,749.8 million - this is according to the U.S Census Bureau U.S Foreign Trade Statistics. Here we can examine that Chinese imports to the United States were too high which makes U.S. Gross Domestic Profit (GDP) shrink because imports are subtracted to the Gross Domestic Profit. This trade deficit causes damage to the United States manufacturers and destroys jobs. Chinese products are very attractive because their low labor cost. When U.S. people purchase Chinese manufacturing goods, their manufactures are compensated in dollars which are placed in a United States bank account. Then, the Chinese need to exchange the dollars to Yuan and as a result via their banks they sell the dollars to the Chinese Central Bank which is known as the People’s Bank of China. Given that the U.S trade with China does not balance, the result will be a shortage of the Yuan and a surplus...
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...crucial factor in deciding the value of currency for a country. In China, one of the biggest developing countries, the appreciation of the RMB has risen by 28% since 2005, and it has been close to 4.5% growth per year. (Chinese Yuan, 2011) The question is what is the future of RMB? Will it continue in a rising trend? What things can be affected by the change of currency value? In general, the currency value will change when the relation between supply and demand is becoming different. “A currency will tend to become more valuable whenever demand for it is greater than the available supply. It will become less valuable whenever demand is less than available supply.”(Exchange rate, 2011) However, answering to these questions involves more complicated aspects: world trading situation, inflation level, and unemployment rate. There is an interactive relationship, which exists between these aspects and the exchange rate. Therefore, to predict the target value of RMB is extremely important for running China. Combined with current reports and researches, I came to a conclusion that the predicted value of RMB should not rise dramatically, and is better to keep the present value. Opposing position The opposing point is that the value of Yuan should rise up. There are broad concerns among economists on a global scale that RMB is undervalued. According to a report from The International Monetary Fund (IMF) advocated in 2010 that China's currency remains undervalued. (International Monetary...
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...the third leading exporter to the US. This surge in exports has been accompanied by growing trade imbalances between China and the rest of the world. China’s global current account surplus equaled 9% of Chinese GDP in 2006 and 11% of GDP in 2007 (Thorbecke & Smith, 2010). These surpluses are primarily with the US and Europe. Due to these factors, the exchange rate policy of China has attracted a great deal of attention in academic, industrial and political arenas. With the emerging China economy as the largest reserve country and the largest “world factory”, the Chinese renminbi (RMB) exchange rate has been the centre of ongoing debate over the source of global current account imbalance, especially with the United States (Sato, Shimizu, Shrestha & Zhang, 2012). Since the direct peg to the dollar was ended in 2005, the RMB has continued its appreciation about 6% per year and enhanced flexibility over the past 7 years. However, appreciation pressure on the RMB remains intense and it is still debatable whether and to what extent the current level of the RMB exchange rate is overvalued or undervalued. Issues Political Influences One of the main reasons for the appreciation pressure on the RMB is the US’ claim that the Chinese government has made the value of its currency artificially low by manipulating the exchange rate. The weakened RMB in turns spurs imports from China and undercuts exports to China, contributing to a widening trade gap between China and the US, Japan...
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... Exchange Rate Exchange rate between two currencies is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another. How to calculate exchange rate Each country manages the value of its currency through varying mechanisms. The currency can either be free-floating or fixed. 1. Movable or Adjusted Peg System A system of fixed exchange rates, but with a provision for the revaluation (usually devaluation) of a currency. E.g. Between 1994 and 2005, the Chinese Yuan renminbi (RMB) was pegged to the United States dollar at RMB 8.2768 to $1. 2. Free Floating System In this system the exchange rate is allowed to vary against that of other currencies. It is...
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...Nike, Inc. Internal Memo Subject: Porsche Powers Profit With Currency Plays To: Mr. Mark Parker, President and Chief Executive Officer From: Hongjie Pan, Assistant Chief Financial Officer On October 9, 2012, I attended a conference, and the speaker gave a presentation about a report entitled “Porsche Powers Profit With Currency Play”. This report was written by Stephen Power, and it was published in The Wall Street Journal on December 8, 2004. I would like to share what techniques this multi-international company is using to maximize their wealth. The main point of the report was that Porsche used its profit to do investments and hedged the appreciation of the US dollar. Porsche had a great market share in the United States and lots of revenue came from US buyers in US dollars. The Porsche Company betted that US dollars would drop so they bought put options to prevent the currency loss. I suggest Nike should learn from Porsche, and buy call options to prevent currency loss. From the presentation, I found out that Porsche gain more than 80% of the profit of a fiscal year by hedging in 2003. According to the article, “or up to 800 million euros ($1.07 billion) of the 1.1 billion euros Porsche reported for the fiscal year that ended July 31 – came from skillfully executing options.” It showed how important hedging was. Porsche made the right bet on US dollar depreciation in 2004. Porsche not only earned money by hedging the week US dollar, but also using new technology to...
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...high rate averaged at nearly 10% annually. Due to this enormous growth, China now influences the economy of virtually every country all over the world. This is more apparent and frightening, considering the United States’ economic relationship with China. Until 2005, China pegged its currency to the U.S. dollar, but as from July 2005, it linked its currency to other currencies rather than dollars and let its currency appreciate by 2.1%. The central bank of China did this by buying and selling the dollar dominated assets in exchange of printed Yuan in order to eliminate excess supply or demand for the Yuan. Due to this, the exchange rate between the dollar and the Yuan, basically, remained constant irrespective of changes in economic factors which could have otherwise destabilized the Yuan relative to the dollar. Since these reforms, China has continued manipulating its currency to its advantages, such as giving exporters an unfair trade advantage. This paper will provide an analysis of China’s Yuan against the U.S. dollar for the past 5 years ending in 2010. Also, the exchange-traded fund (ETF) of Yuan is discussed in depth. Recently, the U.S. policymakers had been having debates over China’s currency policy. The policy adopted by China has been linked to the rapidly growing United States’ trade deficit with China and the decline of employment in the U.S. and the emergence of China as a major economic power. The U.S had been claiming that the Yuan is undervalued with respect to...
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