...C.H.I.N.A.: ‘Cheap House Is Not Allowed’ Will China’s real estate bubble burst? Since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007, China has faced some critical problems linked with the excess of liquidity in its internal market, due to the stimulus plan launched by the Government to soften the effects of the crisis. As a result China is now fighting against a high rate of inflation (especially food prices) and a high cost of property. While the inflation issue has been partially solved in the first term of this year, the fear for the real-estate market trend is still alive. This essay aims to critically analyse the real estate market in China, which is also strictly linked with the health of this country’s economy, by examining this issue from two different perspectives: from the point of view of those scholars who believe that the Chinese bubble will burst and from the point of view of those who believe that the Chinese market is still safe. First of all the essay will give the historical and economic background of the price rises in the Chinese real estate market, from the birth of this important economic sector to the global financial crisis. Secondly, in the core part, this paper will explain the main theory regarding the possibility of the real estate bubble burst and the counter argument. To better understand the actual situation in China there will be also a short comparison with the burst of the American bubble in 2007. In the conclusive paragraph some...
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...China real estate: a tale of two China-centric REITs Michael C.H. Quek and Seow Eng Ong Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore, Singapore Abstract Purpose – There is currently no real estate investment trust (REIT) listed in China. As of date, only two REITs – GZI REIT of Hong Kong and CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT) of Singapore – have securitised Chinese property assets. The purpose of this paper is to examine the driving forces and the obstacles surrounding China REITs, and evaluate REIT securitisation as an exit strategy for Chinese properties. Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyses the performance of the two cross-border REITs and investigates whether REITs holding Chinese assets outperform other listed REITs. Research limitations/implications – CRCT outperforms GZI REIT as well as some of the other Singapore REITs, while GZI REIT ranked second lowest in terms of price performance when compared to other Hong Kong REITs. The limited history of CRCT suggests that when a well-structured REIT holding Chinese assets can perform very well. We also infer that performance is closely linked to portfolio composition and diversification, growth story and originator reputation. Originality/value – The study shows that there is indeed a strong local demand for China REITs, and that REITs can provide an alternative source of real estate financing for Chinese developers and promote a better regulated Chinese real estate market. Keywords Real estate, Investments...
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...Cadim: The China and India Real Estate Market Entry Decisions I. INTRODUCTION Cadim is a real estate division of Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec (Caisse), Canada’s largest pension fund management firm. Caisse is the largest institutional investor in Canada, overseeing more than $245 billion in assets and carrying out more than $12 billion in transactions daily. Cadim is one of Caisse’s three real estate divisions comprising around 6.23% of Caisses portfolio ($15.3 billion). Cadim focuses on residential and hotel markets, while the other two real estate arms focus primarily on shopping malls and business. Currently Richard Dansereau, Cadim’s Chief Operating Officer is in the process of deciding whether or not to move in to the India and China real estate markets. This case study will review the key issues, the general environment of India and China, Cadim SWOT, alternatives to moving into India and China and will conclude with our recommended course of action. II. KEY ISSUES Richard Dansereau, Cadim’s Chief Operating Officer has been tasked with making the final decision whether to enter real estate markets in India and China. Cadim has been forced to look toward external markets due to the average risk- adjusted return of real estate in their current markers, North America, averaging considerably below Cadim’s internal required return rate...
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...countries, and has used event study method to focus on earnings announcements and share prices of all 29 real estate companies listed in Shanghai A-share market from 31 July 2012 to 30 Jun 2013. The event date was selected on the day when earnings for the year 2012 were announced. The method for calculating normal performance of shares was market model. The result of study showed that there was no significant reaction of share prices to earnings announcement containing good news in event window during [-30, -1] and [-1, +1], except 6 days before announcement day, 1 day before announcement day, and there was a significant reaction of share prices of real estate sector in Shanghai A-share market to earnings announcements containing good news in event window during [+1, +30]. For earnings announcements containing bad news, according to event study, we found no significant reaction of share prices of real estate sector in Shanghai A-share market in the event window between [-30, -1], [-1, +1] and [+1, +30], except 18 days and 7 days before earnings announcement day, 9 days, 21 days and 30 days after earnings announcement day. And we reached the conclusion that the real estate sector in Shanghai A-share does not conform to semi-strong form market efficiency. Key words: earnings announcement, share price, efficient market hypothesis, event studies, Chinese real estate market 1 Directory Directory ..........................................................................
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...Index of Contents 1. Definition Real Estate 2 2. Chinese real estate market 2 2.1 overwiev about the chinese real estate market 2 2.2 chinese real estate market in the broader economic context 3 3. China’s long-term Real Estate Fundamentals 4 3.1 strong gdp growth 4 3.2 rural migration to cities 4 3.3 rising middle class and strong upgrade demand 5 3.4 300 million new households in past two decades 6 3.5 limited land supply 6 4. overheating real estate market in the short-term 6 5. government steps in with tough real estate policies 9 5.1 significant increase in land supply and focus on economic housing 9 5.2 downpayment ratios and mortgage rates 9 5.3 Loan restrictions to developers 10 6. summary 10 References 11 1. Definition Real Estate A piece of land, including the air above it and the ground below it, and any buildings or structures on it. Real estate can include business and/or residential properties, and are generally sold either by a relator or directly by the individual who owns the property. In most situations...
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...Franchising first emerged in China in the late 1980s. In 1987, KFC’s first Chinese outlet was opened in Beijing, the capital city of China. Franchising industry in China experienced a period of disordered development in the early days. In the poor legal environment, some franchisers conducted substandard business or even defrauded franchisees of money. In some cases, franchisees delayed payments to the franchisers or infringed on their intellectual property rights. In 1997, the Ministry of Internal Trade established the first Chinese franchise law, the Regulation on Commercial Franchise Business, which included guidelines on such issues as trademarks, copyrights, and intellectual property protection. A lack of specific provisions in the 1997 version governing foreign direct franchising allowed relatively few major international companies to have significant franchise businesses in China. Although many of these international brands such as 7-Eleven, McDonald’s, KFC and Pierre Cardin, normally do business through franchising, in China foreign franchising was still a grey area before the new rule was published. Because franchising typically does not involve investing in equities, the Chinese Government used to put less focus on such business. But the government came to find that franchises are a good business model for China to help solve its job problems and its scattered private capital. China’s capital markets are underdeveloped and franchising is one method that allows the assembly...
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...A Viable Market for Inflation-Linked Products in China How serious is the inflation in China? According to official statistics, inflation rate in China is about 3%~4% at present, which seems very moderate. But this result contrasts with the feeling of Chinese people and is considered incredible. Other evaluation methods are proposed by economists, showing quite different outcomes. In the report Research of the inflation degree in China, Yanchen Qi selected prices of diesel and corn as samples and reached the conclusion that current inflation rate is nearly 30%. In addition, the compound inflation rate from 2000 to 2011 can be estimated using the price of pork, which increased from RMB 6 to RMB 15 per kilogram, with a compound inflation rate of 9.6%. What causes the inflation? External Factors Subprime mortgage crisis. This has led to the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in mainstream global currency markets, especially the Federal Reserve Bank (QE1 and QE2 totalled 2.3 trillion dollar). Its influence to China has two main aspects: Firstly, massive inflow of hot money. China's economic stability and prosperity gives a strong expectation of RMB appreciation. As a result, hot money flows into China through false declarations of trade, FDI and underground banks, pushing up asset prices. Secondly, “Dollar Flooding” forces China to increase money supply passively because exchange rate mechanism is not fully marketoriented, bringing about asset price inflation...
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...Price: Affected by Economic Fundamentals or Real Estate Policy? © Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag 2010 Abstract Many theory and empirical literature conclude that house price can reflect economic fundamentals in the long-term. However, by using China’s panel data of 35 main cities stretching from 1998 to 2007, we find that there is no stable relationship between house price and economic fundamentals. House price has deviated upward from the economic fundamentals since government started macro-control of the real estate market. We consider that the mechanism between the house price and economic fundamentals is distorted by China’s real estate policy, especially its land policy. Meanwhile the policy itself is an important factor in explaining the changes of China’s house price. Then we estimate the dynamic panel data model on house price and the variables which are controlled by real estate policy. The result shows: land supply has negative effects on house price; financial mortgages for real estate have positive effects on house price; and the area of housing sold and the area of vacant housing, which reflects the supply and demand of the housing market, has negative effects on house price. We also find some differences in house price influence factor between eastern and mid-western cities. Finally, we propose policy suggestions according to the empirical results. Keywords house price, economic fundamental, real estate policy, dynamic panel data model JEL Classification...
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...applicable housing in China. It explains the definition of the applicable housing. There are some data of the research and the main problems that this kind of house meet in China at present. I also will talk about my opinion about whether applicable housing should be continued and how to make the applicable housing really help the low-income families. Applicable Housing is very special in Chinese real estate transactions. It is a government policy that provides the low-income families a house in a low price so that everyone can live in their own house. It began in 1994. It means as the development of Chinese real estate economy, there are still some Chinese can’t buy houses even though more and more Chinese can afford to buy their own house. Wealth is not evenly distributed in China. As one online dictionary said, establishing the housing supply system mainly with the economical and applicable housing was fit for the market economy of socialist and current circumstance of China. The target of applicable housing is very good. But the fact is that it works not very well. Some real estate developers haven’t built and sold the building that meet the standards of Applicable Housing while they enjoy the treatment of this government policy. As the result, here comes many problems, such as the price is much higher, the buyer is not the poor and so on. Here are some data from the research about applicable housing in China. Compared to 2005, the price of the applicable housing has raise...
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...Executive Summary The Real Estate Investment in China is considered a growing business in the future. China being one of most populous place, people are seeking better living places. By seeing this investment opportunity in China, our group was highly interested. We believe that China has considerable amounts of land for this opportunity and our business to grow. Real Estate demand is raising in China since their economy continues to increase as well as people is becoming more wealthier. With our resources and experience in the field, our investment will be on its way. This report outlines the investment specifications. It is outlined in these categories: Country Analysis, Real Investment Analysis, Specific Components of the Project, the Best Mode of Entry, and the investment Risks Involved. Each outline analyzes the investment’s specific opportunity given the condition of the country. Based on this analysis, our group made a conclusion. A final recommendation of the proposed investment is given below. Country Analysis China is a developing country that has a great opportunity for foreign investors 5to establish their international business and make profits. China has a booming investment market and based on our research, the Livecast states that China’s investment environment is improving in recent years. Take an example from the Livecast, many enterprises transferred their business to China and trying to reduce the investment loss during the economic crisis in 2008...
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...Urban Housing Markets in China Yongzhou Hou Stockholm 2009 Report 88 Building and Real Estate Economics Department of Real Estate and Construction Management Royal Institute of Technology Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan © Yongzhou Hou 2009 Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) Building & Real Estate Economics Department of Real Estate and Construction Management SE – 100 44 Stockholm Printed by Tryck & Media, Universitetsservice US-AB, Stockholm ISSN 1104-4101 ISRN KTH/BFE/M-09/88-SE ISBN 978-91-977302-5-9 Abstract This thesis focuses on problems of prices and risks in the housing markets of urban China. What drives the dynamics of housing prices across regions is not only of great interest for academic researchers but also of first importance for policy makers. It is also interesting to pay attention to the issue of housing bubbles at a city level and risk allocations from an institutional view. To address the issues, the thesis applies both qualitative and econometric approaches in analyzing the urban housing markets of China. The first paper reviews articles mainly published in Chinese core journals. The existing studies are mainly concerned with such six topics as institutions, policy, land, finance, price and market. The first three topics involve the public housing allocation system reform, such fiscal and monetary tools as tax and interest rate, and the land reserve system. The housing finance treats such subjects of mortgages, bubbles and financial systems...
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...the author discussed the risk of a real estate bubble in China. Given the financial crisis in the United States last year, there is a lot of fear that China is headed for a similar crisis. If the bubble burst, China’s economic growth is likely to slow or decline. Since the world is looking to China to lead economic growth, such down turn will have greater implication for the world economic recovery. The persistent real estate demand in China combined with the stimulus plans that were rolled out during the financial crisis have been boosting China’s economy, fueling the price growth in the Chinese housing market: this is one of the key reasons why China did not suffer significant loss during the financial crisis in 2009. Having learnt from the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, the Chinese government has already begun to take actions to deal with the overheated housing market. At the end of last year, the Chinese government, central and local, imposed additional sales tax on homes sold within five years of purchase and raised the down payment requirements for families buying a second house or more with bank loans. The Chinese Central Bank had also raised the deposit reserve requirement ratio for banks for the second time in last month. Going forward, if the housing price growth persists, the Central Bank will need to take more drastic measures to control this growth, and reduce speculations. The article points out that the biggest real estate problem in China currently is access...
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...A government official named Song Siming in the drama is punished because of the beneficial relationship with a real estate agent. The housing prices in China have climbed to an incredible level, especially in some big cities, such as Shanghai, and Beijing since 2000. An analysis of the drama "Dwelling Narrowness", which highlights Chinese people's quest to find adequate housing, a comparison of China's housing situation before and after the year 2000, and an understanding of the current housing market show that the Chinese government should do something effective to solve this tough problem, such as increase bank loan rate and tax on the second house, or else the housing issue will threaten the way of China's development. Housing situation before the year 2000 is different from that after 2000. Before the year 2000, houses are just relative expensive than other things, but most people can buy one through their hard work. As I remembered, nearly everyone had his or her own house at that time; so people did not think that house could become a difficult task of their lives not far away in the future. There were few people buy extra houses even they did not need them as a kind of investment. However, after the year 2000, houses became more and more expensive. “As a result of rapid and incomplete transition from a planned economy to a market one, urban housing market has been seriously distorted in China.” (Gao and Asami 206)The...
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... 25, 2012 Please briefly introduce the changes of the housing policy in China, and try to analyze the reason of the continuous increasing price of the house in China, and try to propose a solution to the problem. A/the changes of the housing policy in China, A series of government measures designed to cool the housing market and battle rising home prices. Changes are rapidly happening. Transactions have stalled and housing prices are failing in cities across the country. Property controls will be relaxed at the same time the word from central government officials and others is restrictions will continue firmly in place. China aims to bring home prices down to a reasonable level to ensure fairness and stability. From Stimulus to Cooling The Chinese government's efforts to control inflation of property prices they begin to pay? According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the real estate prices in China fell in July in more cities in June. Prices of existing homes fell in 22 major Chinese cities and remained stable in 12. In order to stop land speculation and the fight against inflation in housing prices in major cities, the Chinese government has implemented a number of measures. So buying a third apartment is prohibited residents of large cities. Chongqing and Shanghai have also tightened the conditions of access to credit and introduced a land tax when purchasing a second well to limit the number of transactions and the fight against the threat of a housing...
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...An Inflection Point in Chinese Capital Markets JC de Swaan Caijing Magazine July 3rd, 2009 The institutional development of Chinese capital markets has lagged – while a growing body of academic literature has demonstrated the positive linkages between the development of capital markets and economic growth, China has managed to grow at a breath-taking 10% CAGR over the last 30 years despite lacking commensurately developed capital markets. Several announcements in the past months suggest a potential shift – China may be finally paving the way to modernize and open up its capital markets, a process that has been long in the making. This time however, a date has been set with the announced objective of turning Shanghai into a global financial hub by 2020. In order to achieve that goal, several seminal changes will need to take place. Foremost among these will be convertibility of the Rmb and opening up of equity capital markets to foreign investors beyond the tightly controlled QFII program in existence. A set of domestic-oriented reforms, including a broadening of financial service offerings, will also be critical to the transformation. While the US-borne financial crisis has triggered much soul-searching in developed economies and a vigorous debate on reforms of financial institutions, it has had none of that effect in China. If anything, it appears to have accelerated plans to reform Chinese capital markets. At a high level, this can be seen as part of a broader effort to assert...
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