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CONSUMER LENDING IN INDIA
Euromonitor International November 2014

CONSUMER LENDING IN INDIA

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LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES
Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 1 Consumer Lending Sees Positive Growth Following Change in Government .......................... 1 Stable Monetary Policies Supports Consumer Lending Growth ............................................... 1 Mortgages/housing Loans Increases in 2014; Continued Growth Expected in the Forecast Period ....................................................................................................................................... 1 Bad Loans Sees Marginal Decline ............................................................................................ 1 Consumer Lending Is Expected To Grow ................................................................................. 1 Key Trends and Developments .................................................................................................... 2 Customers Are More Willing To Take Out Loans...................................................................... 2 Mortgages/housing Lending Continues To Grow in 2014 ......................................................... 2 New Guidelines for Non-banking Financial Companies ............................................................ 2 Market Data .................................................................................................................................. 3 Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 12 Consumer Lending: Outstanding Balance by Category: Value 20092014 ............................................................................................................. 3 Consumer Lending: Outstanding Balance by Category: % Value Growth 2009-2014 ....................................................................................... 3 Consumer Lending: Gross Lending by Category: Value 2009-2014 ............ 3 Consumer Lending: Gross Lending by Category: % Value Growth 2009-2014 .................................................................................................... 3 Consumer Lending: Non-performing vs Other Loans Outstanding Balance: % Value 2009-2014 ....................................................................... 4 Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing vs Other Loans Outstanding Balance: % Value 2009-2014 ....................................................................... 4 Consumer Credit: Non-performing vs Other Loans Outstanding Balance: % Value 2009-2014 ....................................................................... 4 Card Lending: Non-performing vs Other Loans Outstanding Balance: % Value 2009-2014...................................................................................... 4 Forecast Consumer Lending: Outstanding Balance by Category: Value 2014-2019 .......................................................................................... 4 Forecast Consumer Lending: Outstanding Balance by Category: % Value Growth 2014-2019 ............................................................................. 5 Forecast Consumer Lending: Gross Lending by Category: Value 2014-2019 .................................................................................................... 5 Forecast Consumer Lending: Gross Lending by Category: % Value Growth 2014-2019 ....................................................................................... 5

Definitions..................................................................................................................................... 5 Sources ........................................................................................................................................ 5 Summary 1 Research Sources ........................................................................................ 6

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CONSUMER LENDING IN INDIA
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Consumer Lending Sees Positive Growth Following Change in Government
The Indian economy was not performing well at the beginning of 2014 but it gained momentum after the national elections and subsequent change of government in May of the same year. The economy and consumer lending saw an upward movement due to the positive mood in businesses and customers who were expecting changes in governance and policies. The demand for real estate, automobile and consumer durables increased which in turn improved the outstanding balance and gross lending amounts.

Stable Monetary Policies Supports Consumer Lending Growth
Poor economic situation in 2012 and 2013 forced Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to change the repo rates and cash reserve ratio (CRR) frequently, causing many fluctuations in the lending rates. In 2014, RBI decided to continue with the existing policies and made minimal changes to consumer lending rates, which encouraged businesses to provide easy loans at lower interest rates causing growth in gross lending. The stability of policies and the economy are expected to improve consumer lending during the forecast period.

Mortgages/housing Loans Increases in 2014; Continued Growth Expected in the Forecast Period
The demand for residential and commercial property supported the growth of real estate and in turn increased the demand for mortgages/housing loans in India. One of the key reasons for huge demand in mortgages/housing loans is the positive sentiment amongst builders and customers who are expecting the economy to improve at the beginning of the forecast period. Government supported mortgages/housing loans by increasing tax free limits in the annual budget of 2014-15, which further boosted mortgages/housing loans in India.

Bad Loans Sees Marginal Decline
As per RBI, the gross non-performing assets (NPA) or the bad loans of the domestic banking system stood at 4% of gross loans at the end of December 2013. Bad loans increased from 1% in March 2009 to 4% in December 2013, but the ratio of bad loans to total loans saw marginal decline in 2014 due to combined security measures from RBI and the banks. Both RBI and the banks continued their focus on strengthening loan disbursement process starting from verification and screening of application to recovery mechanisms.

Consumer Lending Is Expected To Grow
Both outstanding and gross lending saw growth in 2014 and are expected to continue to grow in the forecast period. The growth is expected due to improvement in disposable income, lower lending rates, growing urbanisation and movement of lending market towards organisation ie movement of consumers towards banks from local money lenders.

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KEY TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS Customers Are More Willing To Take Out Loans
Despite the normal mindset of Indians to avoid loans, both gross lending and outstanding balance grew by 18% in 2014. Other personal lending followed by auto lending were the major segments in non-card lending, holding share of 46% and 41% respectively. The growth in other personal lending indicated that customers were less averse to taking loans than in the past. According to RBI, 25% of loan seekers were less than 30 years old, which shows the increasing interest from younger generation; marketing commercials from banks were one of the main reasons for this. Outlook Indians traditionally prefer to manage their expenses from their savings and try to avoid using loans. However, the trend of taking loans increased rapidly in the review period. Due to changing lifestyle in urban areas, customers were willing to spend more on home, automobile and consumer durables. In addition, the increasing use of credit cards and deferment of payment led consumers to become more comfortable with the idea of loans. At the same time, promotional campaigns from financial institutions on television and government policies further reduced the mental barrier towards loans and this trend is likely to grow during the forecast period.

Mortgages/housing Lending Continues To Grow in 2014
Mortgages/housing lending, which comprised 56% of total consumer lending in 2014, continued to grow due to growth in real estate and rising demand for apartments in metropolitan and tier-1 cities. Outstanding balance grew by 20% which was higher than growth rate in 2013, and gross lending grew by 18% which was higher than growth rate in 2013. This showed that annual housing loans increased in 2014 compared to previous years. The banks and other financing institutions reduced interest rates on home loans in 2014 in order to attract more new buyers. At the same time, several banks introduced lower interest rates for women in order to encourage their participation. These schemes came after the RBI announced no increase in the rate at which it lends to banks despite the inflation in December 2013. The banks in turn reduced interest rates to attract retail customers. Outlook The government in its annual budget in 2014 announced higher tax free limit on mortgages/housing loans to encourage people to buy homes. This in turn impacted mortgages/housing positively and gross lending increased. The trend is likely to continue during the forecast period because the financial institutions are expecting robust and growth-oriented fiscal policies by the new government which came into office in May 2014.

New Guidelines for Non-banking Financial Companies
Reserve Bank of India issued guidelines for Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in November 2014 in order to control the bad loans with them and make them less prone to risk. NBFCs will have to maintain higher capital, recognise bad loans earlier and increase their provision for bad loans. This regulatory framework will mitigate some risks and strengthen governance standards reducing the perceived risks of NBFCs, thus making it lucrative for investors.

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Outlook There was growth in the number of NBFCs in recent years but the regulations governing them were not as strict as banks. This makes them prone to risk and the proportion of bad loans over total loans was higher. The government mentioned its objective to increase banking services in the national budget in May 2014, and therefore it wants to attract investors in this area. NBFCs are given sufficient time to implement these norms in a phased manner up to March 2018, so that the impact on their profitability will be lower. The stricter regulatory environment evokes the positive sentiments from investors and the future of NBFCs looks more positive in India.

MARKET DATA
Table 1 INR bn 2009 Consumer Credit Mortgages/Housing Consumer Lending
Source:

Consumer Lending: Outstanding Balance by Category: Value 2009-2014

2010 4,402.9 5,353.3 9,756.2

2011 5,090.8 6,113.5 11,204.3

2012 5,797.1 7,036.6 12,833.7

2013 6,707.3 8,425.1 15,132.5

2014 7,781.5 10,072.3 17,853.7

3,627.7 4,461.1 8,088.8

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 2

Consumer Lending: Outstanding Balance by Category: % Value Growth 20092014

% current value growth 2009-14 CAGR Consumer Credit Mortgages/Housing Consumer Lending
Source:

2009/14 Total 114.5 125.8 120.7

16.5 17.7 17.2

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 3 INR bn

Consumer Lending: Gross Lending by Category: Value 2009-2014

2009 Consumer Credit Mortgages/Housing Consumer Lending
Source:

2010 2,282.8 823.0 3,105.9

2011 2,667.9 965.4 3,633.3

2012 3,169.5 1,095.7 4,265.2

2013 3,744.0 1,291.6 5,035.6

2014 4,411.9 1,525.6 5,937.5

2,002.7 665.3 2,668.1

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 4

Consumer Lending: Gross Lending by Category: % Value Growth 2009-2014

% current value growth 2009-14 CAGR Consumer Credit 17.1 2009/14 Total 120.3

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CONSUMER LENDING IN INDIA

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Mortgages/Housing Consumer Lending
Source:

18.1 17.3

129.3 122.5

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 5

Consumer Lending: Non-performing vs Other Loans Outstanding Balance: % Value 2009-2014

Outstanding balance, % breakdown 2009 Non-Performing
Source:

2010 2.7

2011 2.5

2012 2.2

2013 2.0

2014 2.0

2.4

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 6

Mortgages/Housing: Non-performing vs Other Loans Outstanding Balance: % Value 2009-2014

Outstanding balance, % breakdown 2009 Non-Performing
Source:

2010 1.9

2011 1.8

2012 1.5

2013 1.4

2014 1.4

1.7

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 7

Consumer Credit: Non-performing vs Other Loans Outstanding Balance: % Value 2009-2014

Outstanding balance, % breakdown 2009 Non-Performing
Source:

2010 3.7

2011 3.4

2012 3.0

2013 2.7

2014 2.7

3.3

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 8

Card Lending: Non-performing vs Other Loans Outstanding Balance: % Value 2009-2014

Outstanding balance, % breakdown 2009 Non-Performing
Source:

2010 9.5

2011 8.8

2012 7.6

2013 7.1

2014 7.0

8.6

Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 9

Forecast Consumer Lending: Outstanding Balance by Category: Value 20142019

INR bn 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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Consumer Credit Mortgages/Housing Consumer Lending
Source:

7,781.5 10,072.3 17,853.7

8,355.9 11,113.6 19,469.4

9,019.8 12,307.1 21,327.0

9,768.5 13,685.8 23,454.3

10,588.7 15,253.8 25,842.5

11,445.1 16,998.7 28,443.8

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 10

Forecast Consumer Lending: Outstanding Balance by Category: % Value Growth 2014-2019

% constant value growth 2014/19 TOTAL Consumer Credit Mortgages/Housing Consumer Lending
Source:

47.1 68.8 59.3

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 11 INR bn

Forecast Consumer Lending: Gross Lending by Category: Value 2014-2019

2014 Consumer Credit Mortgages/Housing Consumer Lending
Source:

2015 4,785.2 1,670.1 6,455.2

2016 5,178.3 1,841.2 7,019.5

2017 5,587.2 2,030.8 7,618.0

2018 6,034.9 2,244.8 8,279.6

2019 6,513.8 2,492.0 9,005.8

4,411.9 1,525.6 5,937.5

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

Table 12

Forecast Consumer Lending: Gross Lending by Category: % Value Growth 2014-2019

% constant value growth 2014/19 TOTAL Consumer Credit Mortgages/Housing Consumer Lending
Source:

47.6 63.3 51.7

Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews, trade sources

DEFINITIONS
Explanations of words and/or terminology used in this report are as follows:  RBI: Reserve Bank of India, the central bank in India  NBFC: Non-Banking Financial Company

SOURCES
Sources used during the research included the following:

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CONSUMER LENDING IN INDIA

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Summary 1 Research Sources Trade Associations

Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce & Industry Indian Cellular Operators Association Smart Card Forum of India

Trade Press

Apna Loan Business Standard Business World Card Bhai Cards International Economic & Political Weekly Financial Express Live Mint Money Control Outlook Money Payments News The Economic Times The Hindu Business Line Times of India Voice&Data

Source:

Euromonitor International

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...The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the nation’s central bank fundamental commitment to maintaining the nation’s monetary and financial stability. From ensuring stability of interest and exchange rates to providing liquidity and an adequate supply of currency and credit for the real sector; from ensuring bank penetration and safety of depositors’ funds to promoting and developing financial institutions and markets, and maintaining the stability of the financial system through continued macro-financial surveillance, the Reserve Bank plays a crucial role in the economy. Our decisions touch the RBI at a Glance Managed by Central Board of Directors India’s monetary authority Supervisor of financial system Issuer of currency Manager of foreign exchange reserves Banker and debt manager to government Supervisor of payment system Banker to banks Maintaining financial stability Developmental functions Research, data and knowledge Sharing Central Board of Directors by the Numbers Official Directors 1 Governor 4 Deputy Governors, at a maximum Non-Official Directors 4 directors—nominated by the Central Government to represent each local board 10 directors nominated by the Central Government with expertise in various segments of the economy 1 representative of the Central Government 6 meetings—at a minimum—each year 1 meeting—at a minimum—each quarter Monetary Authority Issuer of Currency Banker and Debt Manager to Government Banker to...

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