...Global Economics Paper No: 192 Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research at https://360.gs.com The Long-Term Outlook for the BRICs and N-11 Post Crisis The BRIC and N-11 countries are emerging from the crisis better than the developed world. As a result, our long-term projections for the BRICs look more, rather than less, likely to be realised. It is now possible that China will become as big as the US by 2027, and the BRICs as big as the G7 by 2032. Within the BRICs and N-11, China, Brazil, India, Indonesia and the Philippines appear to be performing best. Bangladesh, Egypt, Korea, Nigeria, Turkey and Vietnam form a second group of countries that have performed broadly in line with expectations. Iran, Mexico, Pakistan and Russia have need for improvement. We show the ongoing dramatic BRIC influence in key product markets, with autos and crude oil as examples. Important disclosures appear at the back of this document Thanks to Dominic Wilson, Michael Buchanan, Paulo Leme and Swarnali Ahmed for their valuable comments, and to Alex Kelston for the Growth Environment Scores Jim O’Neill and Anna Stupnytska December 4, 2009 Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research Global Economics Paper Contents Summary Section 1. Where We Stand on the BRICs and N-11 Section 2. The BRICs and N-11 in the Aftermath of the Crisis 2.1 BRICs and N-11 Global Importance Continues to Rise 3 4 6 6 Higher growth contribution...
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...Topic: China’s financial liberalization Title: China’s financial liberalization and the policy transformation towards openness Author: Xuepan Cheng 4136801 Abstract This paper focused on the research of China’s financial liberalization reform in order to discuss the economic and financial effects casted by financial liberation. Also the article pointed out the current problems of China’s financial system and provided suggestions for implementation. The main argument of policy suggestions for China is to further lower down the financial limits, so that China will be able to build a better foundation for financial liberalization. Also the effective and constant supervision and modification of the financial regulation system is also necessary for maintaining a healthy macroeconomic environment and continuing capital flows. While the economic globalization, and financial liberalization has become a major tendency that attracts a lot of people’s attention in world economic development since the 1980s, the financial liberation and reform has become a necessity for China to develop it’s financial market and economy wellbeing. 1. Introduction China, as one of the fastest expanding economy in the world, is largely owing to the economic globalization, and financial liberalization since the 1980s. Economic globalization refers to the fact that economic resources (goods, capital, labor, technology, information and other transactions) flow from one country to another. This tendency makes...
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...China's macroeconomic imbalances: Causes and consequences Bank of Finland, BOFIT Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT Discussion Papers Editor-in-Chief Laura Solanko BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2011 20.06.2011 John Knight and Wei Wang: China's macroeconomic imbalances: Causes and consequences ISBN 978-952-462-711-5 ISSN 1456-5889 (online) This paper can be downloaded without charge from http://www.bof.fi/bofit. Suomen Pankki Helsinki 2011 BOFIT- Institute for Economies in Transition Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/ 2011 Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................ iii Tiivistelmä ........................................................................................................................... iv 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 2. China’s macroeconomic imbalances ................................................................................. 2 3. China’s external imbalance ............................................................................................. 14 4. Reviewing the export surplus .......................................................................................... 22 5. The external surplus and foreign exchange reserves ....................................................... 23 6. Policies to correct...
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...of ambiguous property rights in the case of China and its non-state sector as a transitional economy; can they be efficient? Index Introduction I. Past to present People’s Republic of China, towards transition Property rights, defined p. 3 p. 3-4 II. III. p. 5-6 The Chinese Model p. 6-8 Evolution vs. Big Bang, and the employment of ambiguous property rights Current p. 8-11 China, mid-transition and the functionality of ambiguous property rights in transition Future China, post transition, and does one size fit all? p. 11-12 IV. V. Conclusion Bibliography p. 13 p. 14-15 2 Introduction China’s remarkable and unmatched growth of the past decades, regardless of it ambiguous property rights and a relatively weak legal framework, have puzzled governments and economists to date. The contrast between China’s transitional economy and those in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union could not be more striking. Whereas the transition of the latter two has been a struggle and have sparked recession, China’s transition has brought about an economic boom and its gradual reform path has challenged the belief that gradual reform and public ownership cannot work as a transitional strategy. This paper aims to analyse the Chinese Model of economic transition with a focus on the structure of property rights in the system, primarily in the rural sector. First, a brief historic background of China and its course towards transition is provided...
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...FEBRUARY 2010 Policy Brief ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Economic Survey of China, 2010 What are the key challenges facing the economy? How should the monetary policy framework evolve? What reforms are needed in financial and product markets? How should social safety nets be strengthened? How has the labour market evolved? Can pensions be enhanced? How should health care be improved? For further information For further reading Where to contact us? Summary Since the OECD’s first Economic Survey of China in 2005, China has continued to expand rapidly. The economy is also weathering the global crisis remarkably well, not least thanks to prompt and vigorous macroeconomic policy action. Economic expansion is projected to continue over the medium run, and China’s share in the world economy is set to grow further. Despite the recent decline in the current account surplus, some imbalances remain, notably an overly high national saving rate, but ongoing reforms can be expected to help alleviate them over time. Structural reform has continued on a broad front in recent years, with an increasing focus on the need for social cohesion. Even so, efforts are under way or still needed in a number of areas to sustain improvements in living standards over the longer run. Further upgrading the monetary policy framework. China’s monetary policy framework has gradually become more market-based, with money growth as the main intermediate target. Going forward, it...
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...PAKISTAN’S ECONOMIC FUTURE DR. ISHRAT HUSAIN Economists have a very poor track record of forecasting the future as the dynamic interactions between complex variables, an imperfect understanding of the non-economic factors and the occurrence of unanticipated exogenous shocks turn their judgements into hit and miss episodes. Despite these weaknesses economic forecasting flourishes as a discipline and the economists show indomitable courage to sketch out their scenarios of an uncertain and unknown future. This article therefore examines the past developments, current trends of Pakistani economy and the future global and regional outlook and builds the most likely scenario for the medium term economic prospects of the country (next 10 years or so) and then reviews the downside risks and upside gains around this scenario. 2. Pakistan is still a low income country and it would require at least next 14 years of 7 percent average annual GDP growth to double its per-capita income to around $ 2000 (official exchange rate conversion). This growth rate should also be able to reduce the incidence of poverty by half and meet the Millennium Development Goal. 3. It is easy to make this normative statement but more difficult question is how can this growth rate be achieved on a sustained basis? The prophets of doom and gloom in Pakistan (and there are plenty of them) who are constantly polluting the minds of our younger generation and turning them into cynics at very early age sapping...
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...COUNTRY REPORT OVER CHINA Name: Course: Institution: Introduction In 2014, China experienced one of the biggest anti-corruption campaigns in its 65-year history, regarding the battle's scale, term, and the breadth and the levels of the captured authorities' positions. This battle is seen to have a country wide negative effect on China's general consumption. The effects are so particularly felt on the luxury purchases and the government related purchases. Indeed, in the current political environment and with a continuous decrease of the land division, the nation is still ready to keep up the development of its GDP with a shocking number of 7.5% in 2014. On the other hand, numerous reports from the macroeconomic business and worldwide financial organizations, (for example, the World Bank) have since anticipated a slower economic development for the current year, 2015. This paper provides a report on China's macroeconomic condition, particularly the position in the international trade and the contemporary policies in 2015. Macroeconomic Development China predominantly imports raw materials and in turn it predominantly exports industrial products, both developed and developing countries. It reported a trade surplus of US$ 49.6b and US$ 25.6b in December 2013 and 2013 respectively. Throughout last year, exports rose by 9.7% to US$ 227.5b in December. Interestingly, shipments tumbled to Japan at -7.2%. Figure1. In the appendix represent the trend of China’s Balance of Trade...
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...IDB WORKING PAPER SERIES No. IDB-WP-211 Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Fiscal Stimulus Pietro Cova Massimiliano Pisani Alessandro Rebucci September 2010 Inter-American Development Bank Department of Research and Chief Economist Macroeconomic Effects of China’s Fiscal Stimulus Pietro Cova* Massimiliano Pisani* Alessandro Rebucci** * Bank of Italy ** Inter-American Development Bank Inter-American Development Bank 2010 Cataloging-in-Publication data provided by the Inter-American Development Bank Felipe Herrera Library Cova, Pietro. Macroeconomic effects of China’s fiscal stimulus / Pietro Cova, Massimiliano Pisani, Alessandro Rebucci. p. cm. (IDB working paper series ; 211) Includes bibliographical references. 1. Fiscal Policy—Economic aspects—China. 2. Economic Policy—China. I. Pisani, Massimiliano. II. Rebucci, Alessandro. III. Inter-American Development Bank. Research Dept. IV. Title. V. Series. © Inter-American Development Bank, 2010 www.iadb.org Documents published in the IDB working paper series are of the highest academic and editorial quality. All have been peer reviewed by recognized experts in their field and professionally edited. The information and opinions presented in these publications are entirely those of the author(s), and no endorsement by the Inter-American Development Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the countries they represent is expressed or implied. This paper may be freely reproduced provided credit is given...
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...QUESTION 1 Explain why the study of macroeconomics is important in making business decisions. Macroeconomics is the study of the economy as a whole. It is the study of the aggregate demand and aggregate supply which reflect the demand and supply of everybody in the whole country. It examines the activities and trends in economy’s wide phenomena, such as unemployment, inflation, economic growth, money supply, budget deficits, and exchange rates. The knowledge from this study will indicate the ‘health’ condition of economy in the country. As a business owner, the study of the macroeconomics is very important to make everyday business decisions as they have to focus beyond what is happening in the firm and look into aggregate demand and aggregate supply in economy. Managers always need information or knowledge to make decisions. Example is demand theory. If people get low income, they tend to spend less than when they are getting higher income. As the managers are forecasting the demand for their products and services, anticipation of how consumers’ incomes will grow should be learned. To make decisions, business owner should also know about the current interest rates for loans if they are about to borrow money from the financial institution. They should also be aware about where they stand in the business cycle. Cost of labour is another important reason to study of macroeconomic in order to make better decision. For example, during tight labour supply, the price or...
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...Research Proposal on “To study the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic performance of China” Table of Contents Dissertation Title 3 Introduction 3 Rationale of Study: Error! Bookmark not defined. Outline of the Research Project: Error! Bookmark not defined. Research Questions Error! Bookmark not defined. Research Aim and Objectives Error! Bookmark not defined. Significance of the study………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..11 Research Methodology………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….15 Research philoshophy…………………………………………………………………………16 Research Design…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………18 Data Collection…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..22 Data Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….28 literature review……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………36 References ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………42 Dissertation Title “To study the impact of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic performance of China” 1. Introduction Higher oil prices might affect the global economy through a variety of channels, including transfer of wealth from oil consumers to oil producers, a rise in the cost of production of goods and services, and impact on inflation, consumer confidence, and financial markets. In a pioneer work, Hamilton (1983) indicated that higher oil prices were responsible for almost all U.S recessions after World War II. Later other researchers extended Hamilton’s...
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...The Current Situation Facing the British Steel Industry Andreea-Adina Criclevit 03.04.2016 This report aims to critically analyse and evaluate the current situation facing the British Steel Industry using contemporary information and a combination of theories such as ‘The International Product Life Cycle’ and ‘Porter’s Diamond of National Advantage’. Background: Steel is a vital material in the process of economic expansion and it has been very important for the society, considering that the level of consumption of steel/ capita can be used as an index of the level of social wealth, political and economic stability. The steel industry is closely linked with numerous industrial sectors and it promotes the innovation, growth and employment of the European member states. Although the EU is the second largest producer of steel in the world after China its goal is to increase the market share of GDP by 20% in 2020. The British Steel industry is necessary tool, without which, the manufacturing success would not have happened. In 1972, the steel production level has reached an all-time peak of 28 Mt (million tonnes) per year and offered more than twice as many jobs as it does now. Referencing back to Michael Porter’s Book, ‘The Competitive Advantage of Nations ‘, in year 1945, there were 50 mills of steel all throughout UK and it has been reduced to 7 in 1970. Following this, the decision to privatise the British Steel Industry was taken by Margaret Thatcher in 1988, however...
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...AND BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY INTRODUCTION This study seeks to determine the factors that hinder the investment in the Philippines and its effect to investors and to their current investment. According to the World Bank’s Doing Business 2010 report, The Investment climate of the Philippines is now declining. Philippines are not just the second option or the third option to invest in but rather Philippines lies in the near lower end of the list. This Study seeks to know the factors that affect this decline in investment in the Philippines and the effects of these factors to local investors and entrepreneurs. According to Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012, the most factor for doing business are corruption, inefficient government bureaucracy, inadequate supply of infrastructure, policy instability, tax rates, crime and theft, tax regulations, restrictive labor regulations, inadequately educated workforce, access to financing, inflation, government stability/coups, poor work ethics in national labor force, foreign currency regulations and poor public health. Also, poor infrastructures, higher costs among other countries are one of the factors affecting foreign investment. The investment decision factors where the investors base their decisions are Macroeconomic, political, export market, openness, incentives, transparency, legal system, law and order, cheap labor, skilled labor, access to land, communications, transport, utilities and quality...
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...Case Study The BRICs: Vanguard of The Revolution The BRICs, composed of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, are the future of the world’s most powerful economies and the current most accelerated emerging economies. Together they are home to nearly 2.8 billion people, about 40 percent of the planet’s population. They currently generate about 30 percent of world’s GDP. They have come a long way from the last 30 years or so, each one overcoming their own barriers and obstacles to achieve where they are today. They are all expecting to increase their income within the next 15-30 years exponentially, allowing for the economy to flourish and incorporate new markets that were otherwise less popular or almost non-existent. For example, cars in India and China were about 2 and 9 out of 100 people, respectively. They estimate that the total number of cars in both countries could rise from 150 million today to north of a billion by 2030. Not everything is positive however, there are skeptics who say there are problems such as the delusion that current trends will continue indefinitely and uninterrupted. That economic growth rates slow as the base of activity expands and advantages such as cheap labor or low-cost capital wane as growing demand increases marginal price pressures. That there’s always a black swan event, an unexpected, hard-to-predict impact that resets the game such as the internet, the collapse of the Soviet Union or the global financial crisis. Despite ever-present...
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...economies. However, greater-than-anticipated weakness in U.S. activity and renewed financial volatility from concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in the euro area periphery pose greater downside risks. Risks also draw from persistent fiscal and financial sector imbalances in many advanced economies, while signs of overheating are becoming increasingly apparent in many emerging and developing economies. Strong adjustments—credible and balanced fiscal consolidation and financial sector repair and reform in many advanced economies, and prompter macroeconomic policy tightening and demand rebalancing in many emerging and developing economies—are critical for securing growth and job creation over the medium term. The global economy has continued to expand Despite some negative surprises, global growth attained an annualized rate of 4.3 percent in the first quarter of 2011, broadly as expected in the April 2011 World Economic Outlook (Figure 1, top panel; Table 1). The outturn was underpinned by many unanticipated offsetting factors. Key among the negative surprises was the devastating effect of the earthquake...
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...21st century China is entering a new development stage to comprehensively build a prosperous society and to accelerate its modernization drive. China views these two decades as a period of great strategic opportunity which should be pursued vigourously. From an international perspective, peace and development remain the central themes of our era, and China is working to achieve this peaceful environment for development. From a domestic perspective, 25 years of economic reform and opening up have laid a solid basis for development, and China has achieved favourable conditions to accelerate development. However, opportunities are always accompanied by challenges. A key challenge for China is to adopt new thinking and ideas for development and make a new breakthrough in reform, so as to tightly grasp and make a full use of this opportunity to further promote its modernization drive. I. CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND ISSUES China has experienced rapid economic growth since the late 1970s when economic reform and opening policies was initiated. From 1978 to 2004, China’s GDP grew by a yearly average of 9.5 per cent, the highest levels of GDP growth in the world. China has successfully maintained its sustained and rapid economic growth in recent years by improving and strengthening macro-control policies. Confronted with the external shocks of the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 and the global economic slowdown in 2001–2002, China adopted proactive fiscal policies, a prudent monetary...
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