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Current Economy

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Submitted By kochanskiaw
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Indicate where we are currently in the business cycle and where you think we are going. Use real current and historical data involving real GDP, unemployment, and inflation (at a minimum) and a summary of your drop box forecasting effort to support your view on current and expected macroeconomic conditions in the US economy.
According to the historic data from the Fairmodel website (Yale), the US demonstrates slow but steady growth in the current business cycle. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 10.13 percent from the 3rd quarter of 2009 to the 4th quarter of 2011. Real Domestic Product (GDPR) showed steady growth totaling 7.37 percent in the same time period. In the past quarter GDP grew 1.58 percent while GDPR grew .83 percent. While growth in the short term is small it is still growth. Supporting this growth in GDP is a discernable growth in exports.
The Fairmodel calculations show exports growing at a steady rate of 9.1 percent in the past year. According to the United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, imports grew 11 percent in the past fiscal year; exports grew 6.3 percent in the same period. While growth is generally good, it would be better to see exports grow at a faster rate than imports.
Official US statistics and the Fairmodel indicate unemployment at an average 9.61 percent in 2010 and 8.16 percent in 2011. This is a downward trend, with a reduction of 1.45 percent over the past year.
The growth in GDP/GDPR, growth in exports (although tempered by import growth) and reduction in the unemployment rate are all good signs for the economy. The numbers are not strong, but they are trending toward recovery. From this information it is a possibility that the US is still in a recession but pulling itself out. It is easy to tell from news media and general conversation that consumers are not spending/not confident and house prices are

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