...8421786 How is public debt related to economic growth and unemployment? In this project different economic factors will be compared with each other to see if any correlations exist between them. These will perhaps explain certain trends and changes we see. The three factors focused on in this report are GDP growth, Government Debt and Budget surplus/deficit. In the data provided there is a very large standard deviation for GDP (see appendix). In both 2009 and 2010 the standard deviation was over four and a half times larger than the average of GDP itself. This will make it hard to create general assumptions for all countries to assess whether different factors correlate with each other. Even other factors such as GDP growth have relatively large standard deviations. This may cause difficulties in examining factors. An example of ambiguous data can be seen when comparing Canada and India. They both had fairly similar GDP and debt figures in 2010 but India’s GDP growth was around three times that of Canada’s. This shows that we cannot make hard-and-fast rules on links between different factors but we may be able to make general connections and assumptions. Distribution of GDP Growth and Government Debt within countries Figure 1: GDP Growth (2009-2010) 60 50 Number of Countries 40 30 20 10 0 Frequency GDP Growth 2009-2010 (% change) As we can see from Figure 1 distribution of GDP growth is relatively small, with 93.4% (171/183) countries having a growth between 0% and 10%...
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...How is public debt related to economic growth and unemployment? Public debt as a factor will influence economic growth and unemployment. Economic growth is usually presented as gross domestic product (GDP) growth. There are some data including GDP of countries in 2010 and 2009, budget surplus or, total central government debt and unemployment and government debt in U.S.A. Those data have units and definitions below. Definitions: GDP 2010: GDP 2009: Budget surplus/deficit: GovtDebt: Unemployment Debt Gross Domestic Product in 2010 (millions constant 2000 US$) Gross Domestic Product in 2009 (millions constant 2000 US$) Budget surplus/deficit as % of GDP in 2010 Total central government debt as % of GDP in 2010 Total unemployment in USA (% of total labor force) Real government debt in USA (billion constant 2000 US $) First, according to the GDP in 2009 and 2010, GDP growth can be calculated by this way: using the difference between GDP in 2010 mines GDP in 2009 over GDP in 2009. Then, calculate the mean, median standard deviation maximum and minimum by Excel, we can get the results, the mean of GDP in 2010 is 288366.5 million U.S. dollars. The mean id GDP in 2009 is 277225.5 million U.S. dollars, so the average GDP in 2010 is increased. Also, the median of GDP in 2010 is 14141.0 million U.S. dollars, greater than the median of GDP in 2009. However, the standard deviation and difference between maximum and minimum in 2010 is greater than which in 2009, which means in...
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...Set 3 Group Assignment February 2016 1） Assuming that the nominal interest rate, the inflation rate, the real GDP growth and primary deficit remain constant for the next year, we can compute the projected next year end debt as a percentage of GDP by using the equation: dt+1=dt+i-πdt-grdt-st+1 In this case, dt is the public debt (as % of GDP) of 2011, which is 88%; i is the government interest rate 7% according to our assumption; π is the inflation rate, which was 2% if it is held constant constant in the next year; gr is -1%, the real GDP growth; and -st+1 is the primary deficit, which is 3%. Therefore: dt+1=88%+7%-2%×88%--1%×88%+3%=96.28% Thus, the projected next year-end debt (as % of GDP), based upon our assumptions, would be 96.28%. If we decompose the changes in debt-to-GDP ratio into three components, among the 8.28% of debt changes (as % of GDP), 4.4% is due to the real interest rate, 0.88% is coming from the growth, and primary deficit makes a contribution of 3%. The above calculation is shown in Table 1 below. Table 1: Debt to GDP ratio forecast | t=2012 | t=2013 | t=2014 | t=2015 | Inputs | | | | | Primary deficit (% of GDP) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Interest rate (money market, %) | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | Inflation (%) | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Real GDP growth (%) | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | Public debt (% of GDP, end of t-1) | 88 | 96.28 | 105.06 | 90.66 | | | | | | Miscellaneous calculations | | | | | Real interest rate (%) |...
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...carries out to obtain and use resources to provide services while ensuring optimum efficiency of the economic units. The policy influences the behavior of economic forces through public finance. Major objectives of the fiscal policy of Bangladesh are to ensure macroeconomic stability of the country, promote economic growth, and develop a mechanism for equitable distribution of income. The main tools to achieve these objectives are variation in public revenue, variation in public expenditure, and management of public debt. These are reflected in the budgetary operations of the government, prepared and implemented on year-on-year basis. While the Government’s fiscal strategy emphasizes the need for maintaining overall Macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability, the government is investing substantially in building physical infrastructure especially in the communication and Power sector as well as in developing human resources for achieving growth and augmenting the development process – necessary conditions for reducing poverty. The present government has planned to raise the level of investment to 30-32 percent of GDP in order to achieve a GDP Growth rate of 8 percent by 2013 as envisaged in “Vision 2021”. This investment may come from the government, the private sector as well as FDI. As a student of B.B.A program of finance & banking the task in this paper is to find out how the fiscal policy perform in the economic development of our country. Evaluate the performance...
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...Analysis: Debt-to-GDP ratio – United States compared to Germany Econ 201 Alexandria Walker University of Maryland University College Professor Mensah-Dartey Analysis: Debt-to-GDP ratio- United States compared to Germany United States Debt- to-GDP ratio In the last year the United States has painfully reached the net public debt to GDP ratio of 100 percent. This would be the federal government’s accumulated debt that is equal or has actually surpassed the United States Gross Domestic Product in 2010. After the debt ceiling limit was passed, the Treasury borrowed $238 billion in 2010. This brought public debt to $14.58 trillion dollars, slightly higher than the United States GDP in 2010, which was $14.54 trillion. It is believed that this is purely a domestic political issue. The international ramifications of the growing national debt are equally as important the domestic ones. After all, the United States primary creditors are overseas. The United States economy forms the bedrock of the global economy. Washington has the largest and most diverse economy in the world. Its currency is even more important, as the dollar is the currency used in most international transactions. This economic disaster stems from a troublesome history. The history of modern civilization is unique in that it contains some very simple figures that always act as causation for a certain result. In the case of debt, what is clear is that any country who sees its debt levels...
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...sovereign debt crisis Basil Manessiotis paper presented at the 2nd Bank of Greece workshop on the economies of Eastern European and Mediterranean countries Athens, 6 May 2011 1 Introduction To better understand the current sovereign debt crisis in Greece, a longer view is warranted The 20 year period 1989-2009 is bounded by two major fiscal crises in Greece: the 1989-1993 crisis, and the ongoing crisis. In both crises deficits exceeded 15,0% of GDP. In between, Greece entered the Economic and Monetary Union and adopted the Euro To facilitate discussion the 20 year period will be divided into two parts: the 1989-1999 period, and the 2000-2009 period. 2 1989-1999: securing EMU membership The 1989-1993 sub-period: Macroeconomic developments Weak economic activity (1.2% average growth) Very high inflation (16.8% annual average) Very high real and nominal interest rates Low fixed investment (1.5% annual average) Fiscal developments Very high general government deficits (13.6% of GDP average) The 1990 deficit reached 15.9% of GDP Primary deficit averaged 4.3% of GDP Fast accumulation of debt Debt ratio increased from 69.0% of GDP in 1989 to 110.1% of GDP in 1993 Other reasons for debt accumulation Very high interest payments From 6.8% of GDP in 1989 to 11.4% of GDP in 1993 3 TABLE 1 Selected Macroeconomic Indicators (annual average rate) 1989-1993 Real GDP growth Fixed investment growth Inflation (CPI) General Government deficit (% of GDP) Primary...
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...EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS – ORIGIN, CONSEQUENCES AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS F RA N TI Š E K N E M E T H Abstract What is the European debt crisis? As the head of the Bank of England referred to it in October 2011, it is “the most serious financial crisis at least since the 1930s, if not ever.”1 In fact, the European debt crisis is the shorthand term for the region’s struggle to pay the debts it has built up in recent decades. Five of the region’s countries – Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain – have, to varying degrees, failed to generate enough economic growth to make their ability to pay back bondholders the guarantee it’s intended to be. Although these five were seen as being the countries in immediate danger of a possible default, the crisis has far-reaching consequences that extend beyond their borders to the world as a whole. Introduction The global economy has experienced slow growth since the U.S. financial crisis of 2008-2009, which has exposed the unsustainable fiscal policies of countries in Europe and around the globe. Greece, which spent heartily for years and failed to undertake fiscal reforms, was one of the first to feel the pinch of weaker growth. When growth slows, so do tax revenues – making high budget deficits unsustainable. Greece's economy has struggled since the country joined the euro in 2001. In 2004, it admitted its budget deficit was higher than allowed under rules of entry. By 2008 the government had narrowly passed a belt-tightening budget...
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...as today, the deficit budget policy is famous instrument of fiscal policy used to increase the rate of economic growth of the country. That way of financing was establish after the two world wars, oil crises and current financial and economic crises. The objective in seeking deficit financing is to finance the shortfall between government expenditures and tax receipts. Tax increases are not politically palatable. Governments often resort to deficit financing when other components of GDP such as private consumption decline during recessionary periods. Such deficits, if undertaken for a short period with an action plan to create equivalent surplus in near future, could reverse decline in real GDP and stimulate growth in real GDP for the benefit of citizens of the nation. Structural deficits are indicative of inability to reduce entrenched government expenses. The sustainable level of accumulated deficits can also be determined with reference to both the deficit servicing requirements and deficit servicing sources. This analysis will entail identification of cause and effect relationships that determine the factors influencing each of these two areas. As shown by other researchers, the explanatory variables leading to deficits include domestic budgetary receipts; tax structure; budgetary endowments; budgetary discretionary expenses; trade deficit; growth in real GDP; private consumption; domestic capital formation; and foreign direct investment flows. Deficit servicing requirements...
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...following study is to understand and analyse the recent euro debt crisis which led to the temporary fall of the euro. Through this study, attempt has been made to single out EU member countries and the events in those countries that led to the crisis. Policy recommendations have also been stated to further help the main objective of dissecting and understanding the problem. INTRODUCTION Over the last two years, the euro zone has been going through an agonizing debate over the handling of its own home grown crisis, now the ‗euro zone crisis‘. Starting from Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and more recently Italy, these euro zone economies have witnessed a downgrade of the rating of their sovereign debt, fears of default and a dramatic rise in borrowing costs. These developments threaten other Euro zone economies and even the future of the Euro. Such a situation is a far cry from the optimism and grand vision that marked the launch of the Euro in 1999 and the relatively smooth passage it enjoyed thereafter. While the Euro zone may be forced to do what it takes, it is unlikely that the situation will soon return to business as usual on its own. Yet, this crisis is not a currency crisis in a classic sense. Rather, it is about managing economies in a currency zone and the economic and political tensions that arise from the fact that its constituents are moving at varying speeds, have dramatically different fiscal capacities and debt profiles but their feet are tied together with a single...
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...return of the bad results in 2012 and negative predictions for the future. We have analyzed the background of Italy economy, the main economic measures and the actions taken by the Italian government to recover the financial situation of the country. In the following chapters we have reviewed the most important financial ratios as gross domestic product, public debt, budget deficit, inflation and others. We have analyzed the historical data, trends of the ratios and tried to predict the future situation taking into consideration the economic factors as well as the political circumstances coming from the last elections in Italy in February 2013. Finally we have concluded the highest risk of Italy’s financial standing that comes from the rising public debt, rising unemployment level, lowering consumptions and investments and ineffective redistribution of public funds (high corruption). We predict that mostly due to the political results of last election and lack of the willingness to implement the structure reforms the financial standing of Italy will be getting worse in coming years. The main threat is raising public debt that will require higher costs to serve it and can lead in the most negative scenario to the bankruptcy of Italy and excluding this country from the Euro zone. Table of Contents: CHAPTER 1. Introduction……………………………………………………. 2 CHAPTER 2. Materials and methods………………………………………. 2 CHAPTER 3. Results………………………………………………………….. 7 CHAPTER 4. Discussion: Reforms...
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...MACROECONOMICS Greek debt crisis: causes Instructor: Mou Hui Student: Galina Bogdanova JX1208903 Contents Introduction 3 Timeline of the Greek Debt Crisis 4 Causes 8 Internal 8 1. GDP growth rates 8 2. Unrestrained spending 11 3. Greek public debt 12 4. Statistical credibility 14 External Causes of the Greek Crisis 14 Influence on the evaluation of the crisis 15 Impact of the crisis on the country's macroeconomic indicators 18 Conclusion 22 References 24 Introduction International crisis 2008 has not only exacerbated the Greek economic situation, but has also intensely brought forward the economy’s deeply rooted and chronic weaknesses. The main argument of the paper is that the main cause of the Greek economic crisis is not the recent global economic instability, neither the outcome of political management practices of the latest Center Right government (2004-2009). Rather, the situation in Greece is the obvious outcome of a series of incorrect government choices and omissions during the last three decades and not a recent phenomenon at all. Greek economy fulfills the main criteria of a “weak economy”. Economic and fiscal measures undertaken by the Socialist government under the guidance of the IMF will fail to succeed unless they are followed by clear, transparent development initiatives, which is not the case until now. The purpose of this paper is to approve that the current Greek crisis is the consequence of inappropriate domestic...
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...Summary The Indian Economy is currently experiencing strong growth adverse to difficulties witnessed after the global financial crisis. Current GDP levels at approximately $1.5 US Dollars as the fifth largest economy in the world. The aim of this paper is to address macroeconomic conditions that may affect India’s ability to maintain high levels of growth. Monetary and Fiscal policy have been analysed and recommendations made to manage inflation, employment and debt. Tax increases on higher earners and other possible consumption taxes would slow aggregate demand but allow government to increase its spending. Inflationary pressures are as a result of the economy not being able to meet supply requirements and investment in agricultural practise and increase in the manufacturing sector should assist in reducing inflation which is 11.7%. This will also have positive effects on employment which will allow India to reach higher levels of GDP in the long term. Other areas of long term planning will be for improved and widespread access to education and move people into the services sector which currently employs only 34% of people compared with 52% in agriculture and 14% in manufacturing. In the short term the migration of workers from agriculture into manufacturing is a possibility. Diversion of higher taxes to reduce debt levels sitting at 55.9% and long term increase in employment would also fund the ability to service debt. Exchange rates are also a focus for government. If...
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...Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is an estimated value of the total worth of a country’s goods production and services, within its geographical boundary, by its local and foreign companies, calculated over the course of one calendar year. However, for various reasons, GDP omits certain measures of overall economic well-being. There are some limitations of GDP such as the changes in quality and the inclusion of new goods, leisure time and human effort costs, underground economy, economic bads and not including non-market transactions, which may result in the GDP being understated or overstated. There are 3 ways to compute the country's GDP, the expenditure approach, income approach and the production approach. Expenditure Approach: GDP = C + I +...
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...Spanish financial crises 1. Spain’s Debt Problem The financial crises of Spain can be described as the sovereign debt problem, which is a large and continuous budget deficit feeding into its accumulated debt. From figure 1 we can see that fiscal consolidation hadn’t successfully made a recovery (see figure 1). Schwartz (2013) quoted that the net increase in debt in 2013 is expected to be €48 billion (HK$480 billion) and the gross issue of public debt €207.2 billion (HK$2085 billion). These are large sums compared with Spain’s GDP of €1.05 trillion (HK$10.69 trillion) 1. Figure 1 Source: Banco de España, General government liabilities. Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) debt, 11.6. Debt according to the excessive deficit procedure (EDP) and financial assets held by general government; http://www.bde.es/webbde/es/estadis/infoest/a1106e.pdf ------------------------------------------------- 1. Pedro Schwartz (2013), The Welfare State as an Underlying Cause of Spain’s Debt Crisis, Cato Journal, Vol. 33, No. 2 Actually before financial crises, Spain had experienced a long period of high economics growth. At the end of 2007, the fiscal position of Spain performed excellent. According to Eurostat, it was better than in the other three largest euro area member states Spain had a consolidated total government budget surplus of 1.9 percent of GDP, the third highest after Finland (5.2 percent) and Luxembourg (3.7 percent). But in fact it produced...
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...increased federal budget deficit resulting from a recession can actually help stable an economy? Deficits and debt will rise to unparalleled levels in coming decades without major changes in federal budget policies, so legislators should set a goal of alleviating the debt as a share of gross domestic product over the next decade. Reducing deficits in the short term, however, would undercut the insubstantial economic recovery. Representatives should tolerate large deficits over the next several years in order to preserve a strong aggregate demand until the economy is back on its feet. Moreover, they can take contentment in the fact that momentary measures intended to aid recovery add very little to the long-term deficit problem. The increase in deficits for several years recedes in comparison to the size of the economy over the long run. As the economy recovers, however, politicians will need to demonstrate to the public and the lenders who finance our borrowing needs that they are prepared to move the budget toward a sustainable long-run path. President Obama’s initial budget proposal and the health reform packages that the House and Senate have passed represent first steps toward putting the federal budget on a sounder footing. Health reform is crucial because rising spending for health care is the major force driving the projected future growth in federal deficits and debt. There are, however, only first steps. Much will need to be done to address the full scope of the long-term...
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