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Decision Making Analysis

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HW3 – Due 02/14/2015,11:55PM on Moodle
Please submit your answers in Moodle as one Word file, named HW3_FirstnameLastname.docx, that includes the complete solution to these problems, including your decision tree and final conclusions about the recommended decision. Please also post the corresponding Excel file that contains the decision trees to these problems, one per worksheet, clearly labeled with the problem number.

TOTAL: 100 points
1. The NC Airport Authority is trying to solve a difficult problem with the over-crowded Raleigh-Durham airport. There are three options to consider: A. The airport could be totally redesigned and rebuilt at a cost of $8.2 million. The increased revenue from a new airport is in question. There is a 70% chance this would be $11 million, a 20% chance it would be $5 million, and a 10% chance it would be $1 million, depending on whether the airport is a success, moderate success, or a failure. B. The airport could be remodeled with a new runway for a cost of $4.7 million. The increased revenue would be $6 million (80% chance) or $3 million (20% chance). C. They could do nothing with the airport and suffer a loss of revenue of either $1 million (65% chance) or $4 million (35% chance). Construct a decision tree to help the Airport Authority to maximize the profit. (30 points) 2. Nagyteteny is a Hungarian soccer club. The management team is considering three options to improve the team’s performance, attract more spectators but mostly to make some profit. The expected returns from each option depend on the prevailing economic condition. These economic conditions and the probability of each occurring are shown in the table below. Construct a fully labeled decision tree. Then recommend to the management of Nagyteteny the option that they should chose. 30 points)

3. The national coffee store Farbucks needs to decide in August how many

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