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Demand Forecasting

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The Accuracy of Demand Forecasting Between Point of Sale and Order History

Supply Chain Management TBS908

Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 4 2. Company Profile 4 3. Demand 5 3.1 Demand Forecasting 6 3.2 Demand Forecasting Methods 6 3.2.1 Opinion Polling / Qualitative Method (subjective): 6 3.2.2 Statistical Methods/Quantitative Approach (objective): 6 4. Order History Vs. Point-of-sale 8 5. Planning Promotions 8 5.1 Promotion Planning and Supply Chain Contracting in a High-Low Pricing Environment 9 5.1.1 Basic Household Inventory Model: 9 6. Types of demand forecast in GCC and UAE 10 7. Objective 10 8. Methodology 11 Table 3 13 Figure 1 13 9. Result 14 10. Recommendations 14 11. Conclusion: 15 11. References 16 12. Appendixes 17 Appendix I 17 Appendix II 19

1. Executive Summary

Demand forecasting is essentially anticipating future prospects by reviewing historical data in the most calculated way in an uncontrollable environment. Foreseeing what and when buyers will purchase has never been a simple procedure for producers or retailers. Troubled by the overwhelming undertaking of correctly coordinating supply with interest, makers are always enhancing procedures to accomplish the most noteworthy estimate exactness that will guarantee when the customer enters a store, the item they are searching for is on the rack. This is getting significantly tricky as the uncertainty level increase. In the below report the demand forecast of some of L’Oréal Paris promotional items which are distributed by Challhoub Group was reviewed and analyzed to estimate whether the Point of Sale (POS) data or the Order History data must be used as a forecasting reference to guarantee a fruitful profitable demand supply chain and satisfy the consumers need. The importance of the POS in demand forecasting and the overall

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