Demography of Germany

Demography of Germany

Demography of Germany
Concepts, Data, and Methods
G. Rohwer U. P¨tter o

Version 3

October 2003

Fakult¨t f¨r Sozialwissenschaft a u Ruhr-Universit¨t Bochum, GB 1 a 44780 Bochum goetz.rohwer@ruhr-uni-bochum.de ulrich.poetter@ruhr-uni-bochum.de

Preface
This text is an introduction to concepts and methods of demographic description and analysis. The substantial focus is on the demographic development of Germany, all data refer to this country. The main reason for this focus on a single country is that we want to show how the tools of demography can actually be used for the analysis of demographic problems. The text consists of two parts. Part I introduces the conceptual framework and explains basic statistical notions. This part also includes a short chapter that explains how we speak of “models” and why we do not make a sharp distinction between “describing” and “modeling” demographic processes. Then follows Part II that deals with data and methods. In the present version of the text, we almost exclusively discuss mortality and fertility data; migration is only mentioned in Chapter 6 and briefly considered in the context of a Leslie model at the end of the text. In addition to providing a general introduction to concepts of demography, the text also intends to show how to practically work with demographic data. We therefore extensively document all the data used and explain the statistical calculations in detail. In fact, most of these calculations are quite simple; the only exception is the discussion of Leslie models in Chapters 17 and 18 which requires some knowledge of matrix algebra. Except for these chapters, the text has been so written that it may serve as an introduction to elementary statistical methods. The basic approach is identical with the author’s Grundz¨ge der sozialwissenschaftlichen Statistik (2001). u Virtually no previous knowledge of statistical methods is required for an understanding of the present text. Some notations from set...

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