...Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the behaviour of economic sentiment indicators at rent-growth turning points and indicators’ ability to forecast such turning points. More specifically, the paper looks at whether early signals are generated for forthcoming periods of negative and positive office rent growth. The analysis aims to complement structural model forecasting in the real estate market with short-term forecasting techniques designed to predict turning points. Design/methodology/approach – The objective of this study is achieved by deploying a probit model to examine the ability of economic sentiment indicator series to signal the direction of office rents and the strength of movement in this direction. The main advantage of this approach is that it is geared towards predicting turning points. Probit models are non-linear in nature, and as such they can capture more effectively the likely asymmetric adjustments when turning points occur than linear methodologies would. The analysis is applied to three major office centres – La De´fense, London City, and Frankfurt – to examine whether the results will differ by geography. Findings – The findings reveal that the probit methodology utilising information from economic sentiment indicators generates advance signals for periods of contraction and expansion in office rents across all three markets: La De´fense, London City, and Frankfurt. The lead times for La De´fense and Frankfurt are longer than...
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...Economic Forecasting Paper Debra Johnson Ellen Hertz Christine Sibert ECO/ 372 March 4, 2014 Timothy Ringgold Economic Forecasting Paper List of resources a person might use to gather historical economic forecast data: Bureau of Economic Analysis—The BEA is a good source for U.S. economic data on topics such as GDP, income, and employment at national , state local levels. This resource also contains data on U.S. international economic transactions (trade and foreign direct investment). Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—provides information pertaining to employment, wages, prices at various levels (national, state, local). FEDSTATS--FEDSTATS, good staring place for data on the U.S. and contains links to statistical resources produced by the federal government Foreign Labor Statistics—this site, which is hosted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, allows for international comparisons of unemployment, compensation and other indicators. Federal Reserve System – is a good source for banking information, monetary policy, economic data, and other vital information. http://www.federalreserve.gov Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) – Open source of information on consumer price index, real gross domestic product, unemployment index, foreign exchange rate accompanied with graphs and historical data. http://www.research.stlouisfed.org Library...
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...Running Head: ECONOMIC FORECASTING PAPER Team B Weekly Reflection - Economic Forecasting Paper Chelsea Heyd, Andrea Zugelder, Roberto Foster, Pam Pudans, Kelly Day August, 26th 2014 ECO/372 BARNHILL Team B Weekly Reflection - Economic Forecasting Paper The following includes a list of resources that could be used to gather historical economic data as well as economic forecast data. The resources included are general enough to be applicable to a broad range of potential research project types. However, the data that is accessible in any of the following resources is specific enough to not only represent correctly quantifiable theories with facts, but also to display facts relevant to a variety of potential historical economic research as well as economic forecasting. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) Monthly, this resource measures overall economic activity and inflation based on production and income. Also, employment, unemployment, and hours worked is tracked and displayed using this web resource. Several other unique, key data that can be found her includes personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. The data shown in this resource is valuable for predicting inflation, as well as gauging current and future economic activity in the US on a Macroeconomic level. FDIC State Profiles These state profiles have recently been updated as a quarterly data sheet that summarizes the banking and economic conditions of each...
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...Three-month Exchange Rate Forecasting between USD and JPY Abstract This paper aims at the forecast of USD-JPY exchange rate on 1st May, 2012 based on the data collected before 1st Feb. 2012. The result proves satisfactory predictions when summarize using the fundamental forecasting, market-based forecasting and mixed forecasting all into consideration. The use of PPP gives the most accurate prediction comparing with the real rate of 1st May, 2012, though the exchange rate is actually affected by several other facets. The paper further discusses the advantages and lack points of each method, so that the forecasting errors can be comprehended. Key Words Exchange Rate Forecasting Regression Analysis PPP IFE Forecasting Error Introduction With the development of our society, globalization has become an inevitable trend. Since the late twentieth century, financial permeation has become a profound and widespread issue. Exchange rate, an important link of international financial relationship, has almost penetrated into every corner of economics and played an increasingly significant role in our life. Therefore, it is of great meaning for investment and management to forecast the exchange rate. Ever since Meese and Rogoff (1983) initiated the research on out-of-sample forecasting that has become standard procedure for exchange-rate model validation, work in this area has discovered three things. First, the particular time-period of the sample matters...
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...Journal of Business Economics and Management ISSN: 1611-1699 (Print) 2029-4433 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tbem20 Evaluation of some business macro environment forecasting methods Vulfs Kozlinskis & Kristine Guseva To cite this article: Vulfs Kozlinskis & Kristine Guseva (2006) Evaluation of some business macro environment forecasting methods, Journal of Business Economics and Management, 7:3, 111-117 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16111699.2006.9636131 Published online: 14 Oct 2010. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 1769 View related articles Citing articles: 1 View citing articles Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=tbem20 Download by: [86.20.58.206] Date: 10 November 2015, At: 14:42 Journal of Business Economics and Management 2006, Vol VII, No 3, 111117 ISSN 1611-1699 EVALUATION OF SOME BUSINESS MACRO ENVIRONMENT FORECASTING METHODS Vulfs Kozlinskis1, Kristine Guseva2 Riga International School of Economics and Business Administration (RISEBA), Meza iela 1, k. 2, LV-1048 Riga, Latvia E-mail: 1Vulfs@rsebaa.lv, 2 kris@rsebaa.lv Downloaded by [86.20.58.206] at 14:42 10 November 2015 Received 06 03 2006; accepted 28 04 2006 Abstract. Latest studies in the field of business macro environment (BME) assessment and forecasting have been undertaken and successfully implemented...
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... 1 Forecasting Imports Price Growth in China With Many Potentially Relevant Predictors: An Analysis of Forecast Methods Lili Jiang Saint Louis University ECON 698 Professor: Hailong Qian Jiang 2 Abstract This paper examines to forecast monthly growth rate of import price in China in the presence of 19 potentially relevant predictors, including international trade related variables, broad economic trend measurement, world CPI and world commodity prices and indices from January 1994 to January 2013. Simulated out-of-sample autoregressive model serves as the benchmark model. Individual autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, simple averaging combination forecast, approximate Bayesian model averaging combination forecast, discount MSFE combination forecast and diffusion indices forecast are built to compete the benchmark model. We found that all combination forecasts outperform benchmark forecast but are not statistically significant by using Clark & West test. The ARDL model with the predictor of China export price and China PPI beat the benchmark model significantly. Finally, resorting to Diebold and Mariano test, we found that the predictor of PPI in China performs best in forecasting the growth rate of import price in China. Jiang 3 1. Introduction In the past 20 years, China has undertaken market oriented economic reforms and achieved an average annual growth rate of 9.62%. The expansion of economic activities...
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...Please cite this note as: OECD (2014), “OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: A Post Mortem”, OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, No. 23 February 2014. OECD FORECASTS DURING AND AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: A POST MORTEM OECD Economics Department Policy Note no. 23 February 2014 This Policy Note is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Organisation or of the governments of its member countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. © OECD 2014 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted...
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...BIS Working Papers No 420 On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: implications for portfolio allocation by Marco Lombardi and Francesco Ravazzolo Monetary and Economic Department July 2013 JEL classification: C11, C15, C53, E17, G17. Keywords: Commodity prices, equity prices, density forecasting, correlation, Bayesian DCC. BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2013. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISBN 1682-7678 (online) On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: implications for portfolio allocation∗ Marco J. Lombardi† Francesco Ravazzolo‡ July 11, 2013 Abstract In the recent years several commentators hinted at an increase of the correlation between equity and commodity prices, and blamed investment in commodity-related products for this. First, this paper investigates such claims by looking at various measures of correlation. Next, we assess what are the implications of higher correlations...
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...Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices René Lalonde* Principal Researcher International Department Bank of Canada Zhenhua Zhu Economist Research Department Bank of Canada October 18, 2002 Frédérick Demers** Economist Research Department Bank of Canada Abstract This paper develops simple econometric models to analyze and forecast three components of the Bank of Canada commodity price index (BCPI), namely non-energy commodity prices (BCNE), the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price (WTI), and other energy prices. In the paper, we present different methodologies to identify transitory and permanent components of movements in these prices. A structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is used for real BCNE prices, a multiple structural-break technique is employed for real crude oil prices, and an errorcorrection model is constructed for real prices of other energy components. Then we use these transitory and permanent components to develop forecasting models. We assess our models’ performance in various aspects, and our main results indicate: (a) for real BCNE prices, most of the short-run variation is attributed to demand shocks, (b) the world economic activity and real U.S. dollar effective exchange rate explain much of the cyclical variation of real BCNE prices, (c) real crude oil prices have two structural breaks over the sample period, and their link with the world economic activity is strongest in the most recent regime, (d) real prices of other energy components...
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...are several resources available to gather historical economic data as well as to forecast economic data. Six valuable and useful resources are addressed below. These resources are used to identify and evaluate Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Real GDP, Nominal GDP, the unemployment rate, inflation rate, and the interest rate. The Bureau of Economic Analysis The Bureau of Economic Analysis is a comprehensive resource that thoroughly defines the Gross Domestic Product. It explains the history and how it is used as a measurement of a country’s economic health. It explains what the current GDP is and goes into detail to explain and compare the changes in GDP from prior periods and what those changes can mean. The site has links that break the GDP down by individual states to quantify output by state. Additionally, the site provides advance estimates for qualitative forecasting. One link in the website refers to a paper that shows in detail how the GDP is used as a tool for “taking the pulse” of the economy (Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2013). Yahoo Finance Yahoo Finance is a resource that provides quantitative forecasting. There are links from basic to detailed providing current GDP information such as time, price, lows, highs, volumes, and charts for Real GDP. Real Gross Domestic Product is an economic assessment that involves qualifying the inflation adjusted market value of goods and services produced by an economic system during given time. A business may use the real...
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...of Computational Methods Real Estate Investment Industry: (project no) Authors :( 3:3:3) Application of Computational Methods Real Estate Investment Industry Abstract The paper studies the computation methods applied in real estate brokerage industry, Real estate development is a commercial activity involving taking the take the future of an area and trying to shape it needs of future generations and the ambition to make it successful merchandise in the real estate marketplace and thus it is a risky market venture. The paper, therefore, seeks to link the use explicitly of mathematical computation methods used in real estate to how they help manage sales of recently constructed assets. The cost of construction is estimated by the internal area info included in the contract records and from available gross construction cost rates. The most commonly adopted approaches are the binomial models, Black and Scholes and Monte Carol stimulation form the basis of the paper. The motivation for this project is set out more clearly and the computation study methods used in the real estate brokerage industry. Keywords Real estate, Monte Carlo simulations, interpolation, forecasting, Binomial models and Black and Scholes models Introduction Real estate business is the production plant of our cities that converts unproductive land to town space used for various activities by different people. Real estate development shapes...
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...Michael McAleer1 and Marcelo C. Medeiros2 2 School of Economics and Commerce, University of Western Australia Department of Economics, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil 1 Downloaded At: 15:53 5 September 2008 This article reviews the exciting and rapidly expanding literature on realized volatility. After presenting a general univariate framework for estimating realized volatilities, a simple discrete time model is presented in order to motivate the main results. A continuous time specification provides the theoretical foundation for the main results in this literature. Cases with and without microstructure noise are considered, and it is shown how microstructure noise can cause severe problems in terms of consistent estimation of the daily realized volatility. Independent and dependent noise processes are examined. The most important methods for providing consistent estimators are presented, and a critical exposition of different techniques is given. The finite sample properties are discussed in comparison with their asymptotic properties. A multivariate model is presented to discuss estimation of the realized covariances. Various issues relating to modelling and forecasting realized volatilities are considered. The main empirical findings using univariate and multivariate methods are summarized. Keywords Continuous time processes; Finance; Financial econometrics; Forecasting; High frequency data; Quadratic variation; Realized volatility;...
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...Economic Forecasting Paper By ECO/ 372 November 18, 2013 Learning Team Reflection Week Two List of resources to gather historical economic data and economic forecast data Some of the resources, which are useful to gather historical data as well as forecasting the new data include Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce and FRED, Economic Time-Series Database, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Office of Management and budget (OBM), Federal Reserve Releases (FRB), NBER'S Macro-Historical Database, New York's Fed's statistics and data, Statistical abstract of the United States and CIA world fact book. How and why each source is valuable and useful FRED database; allows citizens to see how the country's financial state is. The data includes the national economic and financial date “including interest rates, consumer price indexes, employment and population and trade data. The Bureau of Economic Analysis; includes estimates concerning national, international, and regional economic activity. It also provides statistics decision influenced by the government officials, business people, households and individuals.” (History matters. 2013. Para 3, 5). The Bureau of Labor Statistics gives specific information about employment, unemployment, consumer price index, and producer price index. The Bureau of Labor Statistics updates the...
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...------------------------------------------------- Course Syllabus Facilitator Name: Robert C. Paramo, MBA Course Name: Principles of Macroeconomics Course Number: ECO/372 Version 4 Group Number: SB12BSB02 Course Start Date: 01/24/2013 Course End Date: 02/21/2013 COURSE SCHEDULE: Workshop 1 – Jan. 24, 2013 Workshop 2 – Jan. 31, 2013 Workshop 3 – Feb. 07, 2013 Workshop 4 – Feb. 14, 2013 Workshop 5 – Feb. 21, 2013 COURSE LOCATION, DAY AND TIME: San Bernardino Learning Center, Thursdays, 6:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. REQUIRED READING: Students are required to read all materials available at the Course Materials site for this course on https://ecampus.phoenix.edu/portal/portal/public/login.aspx Whenever there is a question about what assignments are due, please remember this syllabus is considered the ruling document. Copyright Copyright ©2009 by University of Phoenix. All rights reserved. University of Phoenix© is a registered trademark of Apollo Group, Inc. in the United States and/or other countries. Microsoft©, Windows©, and Windows NT© are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the United States and/or other countries. All other company and product names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies. Use of these marks is not intended to imply endorsement, sponsorship, or affiliation. Edited in accordance with University of Phoenix© editorial standards and practices. Policies Students/learners will...
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...Economic Forecast Paper The discussion in this paper is about Economic Forecast. The different places that are discussed will be The Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Economic Report of the President, The Federal Reserve System, and The United States Census Bureau. Over the course of this paper we will see how each department is important in our economy and what each department does in order to help or hinder the economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was established on June 27, 1884 as a division of the Department of the Interior. President Chester Arthur appointed Carroll Wright as the first Commissioner of Labor. Many studies, reports, and statistical ideas developed under Wright’s tenure, “but perhaps his greatest accomplishment was the establishment of the principle that the Bureau would be devoted to ‘the fearless publication of the facts without regard to the influence those facts may have upon any party's position or any partisan's views’” (“History of BLS”, 2013). As the fundamental fact finders for the Federal Government in the area of labor economics and statistics, the BLS collects data from various sources. It processes and analyzes the data before publishing essential statistics for use by the American public; federal, state, and local governments; and businesses. “BLS data must satisfy a number of criteria, including relevance to current social and economic issues, timeliness in reflecting today’s rapidly changing economic...
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