...Journal of Economic Literature Vol. XXXIV (March 1996), pp. 97-114 The Standard Error of Regressions By D E I R D R E N . M C C L O S K E Y and STEPHEN T. ZILIAK University of Iowa Suggestions by two anonymous and patient referees greatly improved the paper. Our thanks also to seminars at Clark, Iowa State, Harvard, Houston, Indiana, and Kansas State universities, at Williatns College, and at the universities of Virginia and Iowa. A colleague at Iowa, Calvin Siehert, was materially helpful. T cant for science or policy and yet be insignificant statistically, ignored by the less thoughtful researchers. In the 1930s Jerzy Neyman and Egon S. Pearson, and then more explicitly Abraham Wald, argued that actual investigations should depend on substantive not merely statistical significance. In 1933 Neyman and Pearson wrote of type I and type II errors: HE IDEA OF Statistical significance is old, as old as Cicero writing on forecasts (Cicero, De Divinatione, 1. xiii. 23). In 1773 Laplace used it to test whether comets came from outside the solar system (Elizabeth Scott 1953, p. 20). The first use of the very word "significance" in a statistical context seems to be John Venn's, in 1888, speaking of differences expressed in units of probable error; Is it more serious to convict an innocent man or to acquit a guilty? That will depend on the consequences of the error; is the punishment death or fine; what is the danger to the community of released...
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...[Cover page] Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) Working Paper Series: WP 0604 Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: 1981-2005 Shamim Ahmed Md. Golam Mortaza December 2005 Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) Research Department, Bangladesh Bank Head Office, Dhaka, Bangladesh (www.bangladeshbank.org.bd) (www.bangladesh-bank.org) Policy Analysis Unit* (PAU) Working Paper Series: WP 0604 Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: 1981-2005 Shamim Ahmed Research Economist, Policy Analysis Unit Research Department Bangladesh Bank Md. Golam Mortaza Senior Research Associate Centre for Policy Dialogue December 2005 Copyright © 2005 by Bangladesh Bank * The Bangladesh Bank (BB), in cooperation with the World Bank Institute (WBI), has formed the Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) within its Research Department in July 2005. The aim behind this initiative is to upgrade the capacity for research and policy analysis at BB. As part of its mandate PAU will publish, among other, several Working Papers on macroeconomic research completed by its staff every quarter. The precise topics of these papers are chosen by the Resident Economic Adviser in consultation with the PAU members. These papers reflect research in progress, and as such comments are most welcome. It is anticipated that a majority of these papers will eventually be published in learned journals after the due review process. Neither the Board of Directors nor the management of Bangladesh Bank, nor WBI, nor any agency...
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...Review of Development Economics, 9(2), 166–176, 2005 Endogenous Growth Models and Stock Market Development: Evidence from Four Countries Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Peter Howells, and Alaa M. Soliman* Abstract This paper re-examines the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. It provides a theoretical basis for establishing the channel through which stock markets affect economic growth in the long run. It examines the hypothesis of endogenous growth models that financial development causes higher growth through its influence on the level of investment and its productivity. The empirical part of this study exploits techniques recently developed to test for causality in VARs. The evidence obtained from a sample of four countries suggests that investment productivity is the channel through which stock market development enhances the growth rate in the long run. 1. Introduction Several theoretical and empirical papers such as Levine (1991), Levine and Zervos (1995), Demirguc-Kunt (1994), Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (1995), Rousseau and Wachtel (2000) and Beck and Levine (2003), have suggested that stock market development affects economic growth in developing countries. The common problem with these studies, however, is that there is no discussion of the channels through which stock markets can stimulate economic growth. In traditional growth theory, the growth rate is a positive function of exogenous technical progress. However, financial development...
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...Conference On Applied Economics – ICOAE 2010 299 DOES STOCK MARKET DEVELOPMENT CAUSE ECONOMIC GROWTH? A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR BANGLADESH ECONOMY MD. SHARIF HOSSAIN (PH. D.)1 - KHND. MD. MOSTAFA KAMAL2 Abstract In this paper the principal purpose has been made to investigate the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth in Bangladesh. To investigate long-run causal linkages between stock market development and economic growth the Engle-Granger causality and ML tests are applied. In this paper another attempt has been made to investigate the non-stationarity in the series of stock market development and economic growth by using modern econometric techniques. The co-integrated tests are applied to know whether this pair of variables shares the same stochastic trend or not. From our analysis it has been found that the stock market development strongly influences the economic growth in Bangladesh economy, but there is no causation from economic growth to stock market development. Thus unidirectional causality has prevailed between stock market development and economic growth in the Bangladesh economy. Also it has been found that all the variables are integrated of order 1, and both the variables stock market development and economic growth share the same stochastic trend in Bangladesh economy. JEL Code: C010 Key Words: Stock Market Development, Causal Relationship, Non-stationarity, Unit Root Test, Co-integrated Tests 1 Introduction ...
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...On the Relationship between stock return and exchange rate: evidence on China Yaqiong Li a b , Lihong Huang b a b The Business School, Loughborough University ,UK College of Mathematics and Econometrics, Hunan University, Changsha ,Hunan ,China Abstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between RMB exchange rate and A-share stock returns in China, in particular in Shanghai stock market. We find that both stock returns and RMB nominal exchange rate are integrated of order 1. The Engle–Granger cointegration test is then performed, suggesting that there is not a long-run equilibrium relationship between stock returns and RMB exchange rates at 5% significance level. However, there is strong evidence suggesting that there is a short-run uni-directional causality relationship from the nominal exchange rate to the stock returns. Keywords: cointegration; Granger causality; RMB exchange rate; stock return; unit root test. 1. Introduction The China’s exchange rate policy has recently emerged as one of major issues in the trade between the PR of China and the United States of America. The controversy is fuelled by China’s pegging of RMB to USD. Since a major devaluation of the RMB in 1994, the Chinese currency’s exchange rate vis-a-vis USD remained more or less unchanged until 21 July 2005, and has fluctuated from RMB 8.22 to 8.11 per dollar since then. The Chinese Authority has recently announced that “RMB will be no longer pegged to the US dollar”...
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...Mayer ETHICS IN ECONOMICS Honesty and Integrity in Academic Economics Thomas Mayer There may not be much outright plagiarism or cheating in economics research, argues this economist, but there are grounds to conclude that a bias exists in statistical research. Does this amount to dishonesty? The author tackles the issue. T is that people try to maximize their welfare. Since dishonesty can enhance the prospect of publication, the prime success indicator in academia, economists should ask themselves whether academic economists sometimes maximize utility by being dishonest in doing or presenting their research. HE CORE ASSUMPTION OF MAINSTREAM ECONOMICS I Plagiarism, in its flagrant form of copying someone else’s work, seems rare; I can recall reading about only three confirmed cases of it in the almost sixty years I have spent as an economist. Both the risk of exposure and feelings of conscience provide plausible explanations for this scarcity. Soft plagiarism in the sense of making unacknowledged THOMAS MAYER is professor emeritus of economics at University of California–Davis. A more detailed working-paper version of this article is available at www.econ.ucdavis.edu. Challenge, vol. 52, no. 4, July/August 2009, pp. 16–24. © 2009 M.E. Sharpe, Inc. All rights reserved. ISSN 0577–5132 / 2009 $9.50 + 0.00. DOI: 10.2753/0577–5132520402 16 Challenge/July–August 2009 Honesty and Integrity in Academic Economics use of someone else’s ideas is probably much...
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...edu Political economy is the study of the role of government, politics and collective human behavior in shaping economic outcomes. This exciting field is both old and new. Political economy predates both political science and economics but only reemerged as a distinct field in the 1960s and 70s. It is concerned with understanding how political forces (broadly defined) shape and are shaped by economic ones (broadly defined). There are many research and policy-relevant questions addressed in this field: 1. What is globalization and is it really good for everyone? 2. Is free trade really the only “appropriate” means for international exchange? 3. Why are some countries or regions rich while others struggle? 4. How did the global casino of high finance emerge and what is its purpose? 5. Is economic performance the root of power or power the root of economic performance? 6. What should be the role of government in the economy? 7. Is there a best practice for government economic policy or are there many workable practices? 8. Why has Asia seemed to perform so well over the last 30 years while Europe appears to have stagnated? 9. Does a rising tide really life all boats? This is a critical class. Although I have my theoretical inclinations, I hold no sacred cows in terms of theories or approaches. Capitalism, socialism, economic liberalism, mercantilism and any other “ism” are all open for support, criticism and analysis. It is my hope we will...
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...:ﺗﺌﻮری ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری :)درﺟﮫ اول اھﻤﯿﺖ (ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ اﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺌﻮری ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری (ﺟﻠﺪ اول)، دﮐﺘﺮ ﺳﺎﺳﺎن ﻣﮭﺮاﻧﯽ، دﮐﺘﺮ ﮐﺮﻣﯽ، ﺳﯿﺪ ﻣﺼﻄﻔﯽ ﺳﯿﺪ ﺣﺴﯿﻨﯽ، اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات ﻧﮕﺎه داﻧﺶ (ﺟﻠﺪ دوم ھﻨﻮز ﻣﻨﺘﺸﺮ ﻧﺸﺪه .1 )اﺳﺖ )ﻧﻈﺮﯾﮫ ھﺎی ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری ( ﺟﻠﺪ اول )، دﮐﺘﺮ ﺛﻘﻔﯽ ، اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات ﺗﺮﻣﮫ ( ﺟﻠﺪ دوم ھﻨﻮز ﻣﻨﺘﺸﺮ ﻧﺸﺪه اﺳﺖ .2 ﺗﺌﻮری ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، اﺳﮑﺎت، ﺗﺮﺟﻤﮫ دﮐﺘﺮ ﭘﺎرﺳﺎﯾﯿﺎن، اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات ﺗﺮﻣﮫ ﻓﺼﻮل ۱، ۲، ۳، ۴، ۵، ۶، ۸ ، ۹ .3 )ﻧﺸﺮﯾﮫ ۳۱۱ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺮﺳﯽ (ﻣﻔﺎھﯿﻢ ﻧﻈﺮی ﮔﺰارﺷﮕﺮی ﻣﺎﻟﯽ .4 ﺗﺌﻮری ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، واﺗﺲ و زﯾﻤﺮﻣﻦ، دﮐﺘﺮ ﭘﺎرﺳﺎﺋﯿﺎن، ﻓﺼﻮل ۴ و ۵ و ۷ .5 :درﺟﮫ دوم اھﻤﯿﺖ ﺗﺌﻮری ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، ھﻨﺪرﯾﮑﺴﻦ (ﺟﻠﺪ اول و دوم)، دﮐﺘﺮ ﻋﻠﯽ ﭘﺎرﺳﺎﯾﯿﺎن، اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات ﺗﺮﻣﮫ ﻓﺼﻮل ۲۱، ۲۲ و ۳۲ .1 ﺗﺌﻮری ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، ﺑﻠﮑﻮﯾﯽ ، ﺗﺮﺟﻤﮫ دﮐﺘﺮ ﭘﺎرﺳﺎﯾﯿﺎن، اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات ﺗﺮﻣﮫ. ﻓﺼﻮل ۹ ، ۰۱، ۲۱ و ۴۱ .2 Munich Personal RePEc Archiveدﮐﺘﺮ ﮐﺮﻣﯽ و ﮐﺎﻣﺮان ﺗﺎﺟﯿﮏ، اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات ﻧﮕﺎه داﻧﺶ، ﻓﺼﻮل ۲ ، ۴ ، ۷ .3 ﺗﺌﻮری ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، وﻟﮏ ، ﺗﺮﺟﻤﮫ :درﺟﮫ ﺳﻮم اھﻤﯿﺖ ﺗﺌﻮری ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، ھﻨﺪرﯾﮑﺴﻦ (ﺟﻠﺪ اول)، دﮐﺘﺮ ﻋﻠﯽ ﭘﺎرﺳﺎﯾﯿﺎن، اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات ﺗﺮﻣﮫ ﻓﺼﻮل ۴، ۶، ۸، ۹ ، ۰۱ .1 ﺗﺌﻮری ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، ﺑﻠﮑﻮﯾﯽ ، ﺗﺮﺟﻤﮫ دﮐﺘﺮ ﭘﺎرﺳﺎﯾﯿﺎن، ﻓﺼﻮل ۵، ۶ و ۱۱ .2 ﺗﺌﻮری ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری، اﺳﮑﺎت، ﺗﺮﺟﻤﮫ دﮐﺘﺮ ﭘﺎرﺳﺎﯾﯿﺎن، ﻓﺼﻮل ۰۱ و ۱۱ .3 :ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ :)درﺟﮫ اول اھﻤﯿﺖ (ﻣﻨﺒﻊ اﺻﻠﯽ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ، دﮐﺘﺮ ﺳﺎﺳﺎن ﻣﮭﺮاﻧﯽ، دﮐﺘﺮ ﮐﺮﻣﯽ، ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪزاده و اﻣﯿﺪ ﻓﺮﺟﯽ، اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات ﻧﮕﺎه داﻧﺶ .1 :درﺟﮫ دوم اھﻤﯿﺖ ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ، دﮐﺘﺮ ﻧﯿﮑﺒﺨﺖ و زھﺮا دﯾﺎﻧﺘﯽ دﯾﻠﻤﯽ، ﻧﺸﺮ ﻣﮭﺮﺑﺎن ( ﻓﺼﻮل ھﺰﯾﻨﮫ ﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ، ھﺰﯾﻨﮫ ﯾﺎﺑﯽ ھﺪف، ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﻗﺪام ﺑﮫ ھﻨﮕﺎم .1 ).ﺧﻮاﻧﺪه ﺷﻮد ﺣﺴﺎﺑﺪاری ﺻﻨﻌﺘﯽ ( ﺟﻠﺪ دوم)، ھﻮرن ﮔﺮن و ھﻤﮑﺎران، ﺗﺮﺟﻤﮫ دﮐﺘﺮ ﭘﺎرﺳﺎﯾﯿﺎن و ﻣﻮﺳﯽ ﺑﺰرگ اﺻﻞ (ﻓﺼﻮل ﺑﻮدﺟﮫ ﺟﺎﻣﻊ، ﺑﻮدﺟﮫ اﻧﻌﻄﺎف .2 )ﭘﺬﯾﺮ...
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...solved. • Describe the role of the personnel involved in the project. • Explain the process of solving the problem and developing the program in terms of the programming development cycle. • Explain how you would take a modular approach to the program solution and why it is important. • Provide appropriate references to support the points in your paper. Format your paper consistent with APA guidelines. Part 2: Selection Structure Paper Use the Part 1: Programming Solution Proposal you developed in Week Two and select one section of the proposal that requires a selection structure. Write a 2- to 3-page paper describing the purpose of that structure and write the pseudocode for that structure. Examine any iteration control structure. If the program you described in Week Two does not lend itself well to the inclusion of a selection structure, create a new example of a selection structure. Create a Visual Logic flowchart that parallels this pseudocode. Test the flowchart to make sure that it executes properly and produces correct results. Submit the paper and the Visual Logic file. Format your paper consistent with APA guidelines. Part 3: Array Structure Proposal Use the Part 2: Selection...
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...ANALYSIS ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIONS ON AIR POLLUTION Lu Li, Zhaowei Liu ECON508: Applied econometrics May 10, 2013 Abstract In China, many environmental problems have been ignored when it mainly focused on a higher pace of economic growth for a long time. In this paper, we aim at finding the relationship between air pollutions and its potential contributor—industrial development. And we are also interested in finding out which department in industry contributes most to air pollution. With these questions, it is essential for us to bring our analysis into a practical and comprehensive content. In this paper, we choose air pollution indicators and industry output in provincial level, thus we would like to test it based on different regions. We use the fixed effect model to construct the data and use hypothesis testing to testify our model through three characteristics: normality, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. After the regression and test, we come to the conclusion that basically our model is an appropriate one although several data and time series problems limit its further accuracy. And what is more, the result is quite accordance with our assumption that industrial sectors do effect the environment to some extent and among all the sectors we discuss, mining is the most overarching element. In order to obtain a better and more convincing result, we still need more information about air quality in our further study and research. Keywords:...
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...Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online) Vol.4, No.10, 2013 www.iiste.org An Evaluation and Forecast of the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria’s Agriculture Sector in A VAR Environment Ayodeji Adetunji Idowu* Liu Ying Huazhong Agricultural University, No.1, Shizishan Street, Hongshan District, Wuhan, Hubei Province · 430070 · P.R. China * E-mail of the corresponding author: ayodeji.idowu@hotmail.com The research is financed by project (NCET-12-0868) New Century Excellent Talents and Project (2013PY017). Abstract This study evaluated and forecasted the impact of FDI in the agricultural sector from 1980-2007, specifically its impact on agricultural output and labor in a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) environment. Data used in this study were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin (2009). Results from the analysis revealed that FDI in the period under review had no significant impact on agricultural output. In addition, results of the forecast estimates showed that the current volume of FDI would not significantly affect agricultural output but will have significant positive impact on labor (employment generation). This study recommended for increase in the volume of FDI and advised government and other stakeholders to seek FDI that will improve existing or introduce new technology in the agricultural sector and enhance domestic capacity or domestic investment, even if the opportunity...
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...ECON 191, Fall 2012 Guidelines for Writing an Economics Research Paper Writing a good economics paper is both an exciting and a nontrivial task. It requires a sustained effort in identifying an important question and in developing a credible model to think about that question or a testable hypothesis to answer it. In many cases it may require collecting data that gives the opportunity to test the hypothesis that you develop. You are encouraged to structure your paper in four parts: introduction, literature review, body, and conclusion. A brief abstract of no more than 100 words should precede your paper. Introduction Identifying a significant and well formulated question is the single most important part of the research process and the most difficult as well. A good research question has to be concise (remember, you are writing a 15-page paper, not a book), feasible and important. Choosing a research question requires balancing importance and feasibility. Feasibility means tractability for theoretical research and data availability for empirical research. Whenever you come up with an idea for a research question, always try to think about a critic sitting in front of you asking “Why should I care about this?” Consider this question to be a first filter for your research question. Identify a well-defined research question. The introduction is where you (1) present the research question, (2) motivate why it is important and briefly outline (3) how you go about answering it...
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...THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASEAN COUNTRIES BY KOH YONG HONG CHOONG PIK SIN LEE SOCK MEI NG HON MENG LEONG MUN HONG A research project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of BACHELOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION (HONS) BANKING AND FINANCE UNIVERSITI TUNKU ABDUL RAHMAN FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND FINANCE DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE MARCH 2016 Copyright @ 2016 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this paper may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, graphic, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, without the prior consent of the authors. DECLARATION We hereby declare that: (1) This undergraduate research project is the end result of our own work and that due acknowledgement has been given in the references to ALL sources of information be they printed, electronic, or personal. (2) No portion of this research project has been submitted in support of any application for any other degree or qualification of this or any other university, or other institutes of learning. (3) Equal contribution has been made by each group member in completing the research project. (4) The word count of this research report is 10,786 words. Name of Student: Student ID: Signature: 1. KOH YONG HONG 11ABB02521 2. CHOONG PIK...
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...THE GROWTH EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION PROGRAMME IN EGYPT: DEVELOPMENTS AND DRAWBACKS (Key Words: financial liberalisation, economic growth, Egypt) DR. Ayman M. Ebrahim Faculty of Commerce and Business Administration Helwan University Ein Helwan , Cairo E-mail: ahendy@ksu.edu.sa hendyayman@hotmail.com ABSTRACT The paper begins with a review of theory and recent empirical evidence relating to financial liberalisation and economic development. Among the countries that underwent financial liberalisation programmes in the 1990s, Egypt appears to have performed well. Although the internal and external shock to the economy and the associated drawbacks in the financial liberalisation programme, over the past decade, which brought the experience of financial liberalisation, the Egyptian economic performance improved. Its aggregate growth rate was positive and macroeconomic variables moved in a favourable direction in accordance with the predictions of the financial liberalisation paradigm. The econometric test specification follows the nonlinear least-squares estimations methodology to test the co-movement of the underlying variables. INTRODUCTION The financial liberalisation paradigm encourages nominal interest rate liberalisation, the reduction or abolition of reserve requirements, the elimination of inflationary finance, the removal of other forms of taxation on...
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...Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 72 (2009) 147–152 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo Cognitive abilities and behavioral biases Jörg Oechssler a,∗ , Andreas Roider a , Patrick W. Schmitz b a b Department of Economics, University of Heidelberg, Bergheimer Str. 58, 69115 Heidelberg, Germany Department of Economics, University of Cologne, Germany a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t We use a simple, three-item test for cognitive abilities to investigate whether established behavioral biases that play a prominent role in behavioral economics and finance are related to cognitive abilities. We find that higher test scores on the cognitive reflection test of Frederick [Frederick, S., 2005. Cognitive reflection and decision-making. Journal of Economic Perspectives 19, 25–42] indeed are correlated with lower incidences of the conjunction fallacy and conservatism in updating probabilities. Test scores are also significantly related to subjects’ time and risk preferences. Test scores have no influence on the amount of anchoring, although there is evidence of anchoring among all subjects. Even if incidences of most biases are lower for people with higher cognitive abilities, they still remain substantial. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Article history: Received 19 May 2008 Received in revised form 15 April 2009 Accepted 15 April 2009 Available online...
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