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Effect of Currency Towards Income of Individuals

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Submitted By bentwah
Words 2633
Pages 11
Chapter 1 Pages:

1.0 Introduction…………………………………………………………….1

1.1 Background…………………………………………………………….2

1.2 Statement of the study…….………………………………………........2-4

1.3 Objective of the study..................................................................…........4

1.4 Research questions……………………………………………...…...5-11

1.5 Research hypothesis………………………….……………………........12

1.6 Significance of the research……………….……………………………12

Chapter 2

2.0 Literature review………………………………………………..……….13

Chapter 3

3.0 Research design………………………………………………………..17

3.1 Study population……………………………………………………….17

3.2 Scope of the study……………………...………………………………17

3.3 Sample and sampling techniques……….………………………………17

3.4 Methods of data collection……………………………………………...18

3.5 Methods of data analysis………………………………………………..18

3.6 Time schedule…………...………………………………………………19

3.7 Financial budget………...……………………………………………….20

3.8 Bibliography…………..…………………………………………………21

Chapter 1
1.0 Introduction. The value of money depends upon price level of commodities. When the price level rises, the value of money decreases and this may also be opposite. The changes in the value of money can affect different sections of the community. For instant, when the price level goes up, businessmen, industrialists and peasants gain, but fixed income earners and consumers lose, the opposite of this is also true (Saleemi, 1987).

When prices rise, production of commodities increases, employment level rise, but on the other hand income distribution in the case of those who earn high, those who earn low as well as those who earn nothing is completely unfair. In addition, when price has a falling trend, the level of production decreases but fixed income earners gain.

According to Saleemi (1987) economically, the rapid rise in price level is known as inflation, whereas the rapid decrease is deflation. Too much fluctuation of the price level of commodities either inflation or deflation has a great effect in economic stability of a country. Tanzania being our case study seems to lose the stability of her currency day after day due to inflation effects. 1. Background If we look at the trend of fluctuation of Tanzanian Shilling (TShs), we may note that in recent years it has been dropping time after time. According to Ali (2006) during the second term of leadership in Tanzania, the shilling fell from 43.7 percent while during the time of third government of the, the shilling fell further to 96.4 percent.

In reality, the situation of currency fluctuation threaten the economic growth of Tanzania to that extent that even the increase in tax collection which was realized can not be reflected to the low income earners (walalahoi). For those with fixed income, currency fluctuation may affect them positively or negatively depending on the fluctuation of the currency.

Furthermore, Ali (2006) informs that in Zimbabwe, the currency felt from an exchange rate of 23.7 in 1998 to 6,200 Zimbabwean dollar in 2005 per 1 USD, this reflects 1000 percent inflation. On the other hand in Kenya, despite of political instability, the exchange rate of Kenyan shilling has raised from 76.2 Shs in year 2000 to Kshs 72.5 per 1 USD in year 2006.

2. Statement of the study The fluctuation of currency in Tanzania can be reflected far back to post Tanzanian Uganda war against fugitive invader Iddi Amin Dada. Before the war, the Tanzanian currency was strong having better exchange per USD (Dr Mshana’s personal communication). However, in recent years the fluctuation of Tanzanian shilling was realized during the second term of political governance, whereby the shilling fell from 43.7 percent while in the third term of leadership, the shilling further to 96.4 percent. This reflects a negative fluctuation of 52.7 percent.

Subsequently, in year 2006 from the period running from January to September, The Tanzanian Shilling has fell by 19.6 percent at exchange rate of 1350 Tsh in September as compared to TShs 1120 in January per Uniited States Dollar (USD). Even though, some stability in the shilling during the second half of September 2006 was realized due to some changes which were made in the system of foreign exchange in the Bank of Tanzania (BOT), (Ali 2006). With this realization of currency fluctuation, the economy of the country is highly affected and mostly affecting the low-income earners. As such, the position of Tanzania in the world list of poor countries is also increased.

Some of the Government efforts to bridge the fluctuation of the currency includes: increasing interest rates in commercial Banks through the BOT. Other measures are such as regulation of prices of commodities such as price of consumables and increasing import tax just to mention but a few. In order to contain the problem of Tanzanian currency fluctuation, this study is important, as it will come up with recommendation to lessen the fluctuation.

3. Objective of the study The main objective of this study is to determine how Tanzanian shilling fluctuation affects the economy of individuals and the country at large.

1.3.1 Specific objectives of the study The main objective study will be attained through the following specific objectives.
1. To determine how the Global economy affects the fluctuation of Tanzanian shilling.
2. To assess how conducive is Tanzanian investment policy or political stability influence Tanzanian currency fluctuation.
3. To determine the impact of political governance on Tanzanian currency fluctuation.
4. To determine how locally produced commercial crops affects the fluctuation of Tanzanian shilling.
5. To determine how taxation can assist in controlling the fluctuation of the Tanzanian shilling.

4. Research questions

1. How does the Global economy affect the fluctuation of Tanzanian shilling?

2. How conducive is Tanzanian investment policy or political stability in influencing Tanzanian currency fluctuation?

3. What is the impact of political governance on Tanzanian currency fluctuation?

4. How do locally produce commercial crop affect the fluctuation of Tanzanian shilling?

5. How does taxation assist in controlling the fluctuation of the Tanzanian shilling?

Questionnaire A study to determine how fluctuation of Tanzanian Shilling affects the economy of individuals and the country.

1. Name of respondent…………………………………. 2. Sex i. Male ii. Female 3. Age…………………… years 4. Level of education i. Never been to school ii. Primary education iii. Ordinary secondary education iv. Advanced secondary school v. Higher learning education 5. Occupation i. Jobless (never employed) ii. Public sector employee iii. Private sector employee iv. Retired

6. Do you think that the rise of fuel price in the global market affects the fluctuation of the Tanzanian shilling? i. Yes ii. No 7. If the answer to question 6 above, explain 1……………………………………………………….. 2……………………………………………………….. 3……………………………………………………….. 4……………………………………………………….. 5……………………………………………………….. 8. What do you think are the impacts of globalization on the fluctuation of the Tanzanian shilling? 1……………………………………………………….. 2……………………………………………………….. 3……………………………………………………….. 4……………………………………………………….. 5……………………………………………………….. 9. Do you think the Tanzanian investment policy has effect to the fluctuation of its currency? i. Yes ii. No

10. If the answer for question 9 above is yes, give reasons. 1……………………………………………………….. 2……………………………………………………….. 3……………………………………………………….. 4……………………………………………………….. 5……………………………………………………….. 11. What measures could be taken to reduce the rate of Tanzanian currency fluctuation? 1……………………………………………………….. 2……………………………………………………….. 3……………………………………………………….. 4……………………………………………………….. 5……………………………………………………….. 12. What explanations could you give on changes in leadership and fluctuation of Tanzanian currency? 1……………………………………………………….. 2……………………………………………………….. 3……………………………………………………….. 4……………………………………………………….. 5………………………………………………………..

13. What do you think is the role of the government in relation to the Tanzanian currency? 1……………………………………………………….. 2……………………………………………………….. 3……………………………………………………….. 4……………………………………………………….. 5……………………………………………………….. 6………………………………………………………... 7………………………………………………………… 14. Do locally produce products contribute to the Tanzanian economy iii. Yes iv. No 15. If the answer to question 14 above is yes give reasons 1……………………………………………………….. 2……………………………………………………….. 3……………………………………………………….. 4……………………………………………………….. 5……………………………………………………….. 6………………………………………………………... 7………………………………………………………… 16. If the answer to question 14 above is no give reasons 1……………………………………………………….. 2……………………………………………………….. 3……………………………………………………….. 4……………………………………………………….. 5……………………………………………………….. 6………………………………………………………... 7………………………………………………………… 17. What would you advise the government on locally produced products? 1……………………………………………………….. 2……………………………………………………….. 3……………………………………………………….. 4……………………………………………………….. 5……………………………………………………….. 6………………………………………………………... 7………………………………………………………… 18. How does Taxation on import and export affect the fluctuation of the Tanzanian shilling? 1……………………………………………………….. 2……………………………………………………….. 3……………………………………………………….. 4……………………………………………………….. 5……………………………………………………….. 6………………………………………………………... 7…………………………………………………………
19. How could taxation policy be improved so as to prevent the currency fluctuation? Explain 1……………………………………………………….. 2……………………………………………………….. 3……………………………………………………….. 4……………………………………………………….. 5……………………………………………………….. 6………………………………………………………... 7…………………………………………………………

THANK YOU FOR YOUR CONTRRIBUTION.

1.5 Research Hypothesis The fluctuation of Tanzanian shilling is influenced by factors such as Global economy, investment policy or political stability, political governance, locally produced commercial crops and Taxation.

1.6 Significance of the study

The significance of this study bases on the fact that currency fluctuation has direct impact to the economy of individuals and the country. When the currency fluctuates negatively, the purchasing power is decreased affecting ability to buy and pay. In addition, the government foreign reserve is reduced which pushes the Government to print more local currency to bridge the gap. Given the case, this study which aims at determining how Tanzanian shilling fluctuation affects the economy of individuals and the country at large. A critical analysis of the causes of the fluctuation to be attained through analysis of the study’s specific objectives the results will provide opportunity for providing recommendation for feasible interventions. Chapter 2
2.0 Literature review Currency fluctuation may be well thought-out as the tendency where by the value of currency changes frequently occasionally. When this happen, the economy of individuals and the country changes positively or negatively as regards to the nature of fluctuation. In this realization, as value of the currency decreases as well the economy of the country decreases, the opposing of this is also valid. So they are proportional to each other (Romer, 2001).

When there is declining of the economy, there is considerable income inequality among families within a nation; this implies that few people are high-income earners while the majorities are low-income earners plus the dependants (Mc Connell, 2002).

Global economy on currency fluctuation According to Ali (2006), the problems of Tanzanian currency fluctuation is due to the failure of the government to have a commodity to export into the International market in order to obtain foreign currency to raise her fund (revenue), and so decide to make some more notes and introduce them in the economy. This lead into an exchange rate overshooting which economically means that, the circulation of money in the economy is higher than economic needs (Romer, 2001). Another example of financial crisis is reported in Indonesia. The crisis evolved in stages. In the first stage, the devaluation of the Thai's Baht on July 2 created a serious jitteriness among global investors. Mutual fund managers and corporate treasurers from around the world, not only in Thailand but also in Jakarta, Manila, and Kuala Lumpur immediately began to sell local currencies, setting off a tumble not only in local currencies but also in the stock markets as well (Azis….).

Taxation and fluctuation of currency

Fluctuation of currency may be affected by taxation policies implemented by the government on both importation and exportation activities (ADB, 2000).

The International Monetary Fund in collaboration with the World Bank investment policy also affects fluctuation of the Tanzanian currency whereas, for a poor country to have a stable economy though it will take a long period to attain it (Mchangilla, 2006 -Personal communication,).

Government investment policy and political stability

Other factors which influencing fluctuation of the Tanzanian currency is the government investment policy’s blind on the domination of the country’s economy and those investors being using them for self-benefits (Ali, 2006). Furthermore, according to Ali (2006), the problem of currency fluctuation may also be influenced by poor strategic plans, which are aimed at encouraging the economic growth among individuals and the whole country. On the other hand, the fluctuation of Tanzanian currency may be influenced by lack of peace and security in the country, because this may hinder investment activities.

In the Indonesian crisis, it was not until the economic crisis quickly turned into a political crisis that the fear of a collapsed system became real. The IMF seems to have failed to take into account the sudden jump in the political risk premium. In such a situation, it is not unusual that rumors of all types spread (Azis……). It is explained that perceptions were widespread that Suharto had lost his touch. A popular revolt gained strength and public attacks on the government and Suharto's leadership were on the rise. Fearing deeper political turmoil, the armed forces were put on special alert.

The impact of political governance on currency fluctuation

According (Azis……) there seems to be no alternatives to resolving the debt-cum-currency problem other than subscribing to some forms of debt restructuring, which is more desirable than a debt moratorium. Not even strict compliance with the IMF program can help abate the panic caused by continued pressures on the Rupiah. But debt restructuring cannot be applied to all debtors. Only prudent and healthier corporate entities and those who have a good long relationship with their bankers can, and should, manage to restructure. In the Indonesian crisis, what is clear is that early pressures did not come from what some political leaders in the region called "speculators" (i.e., those who attempted to profit from the declining values of a currency). It was only at a later third stage that they may have taken advantage by joining the flux, exacerbating the already slumped Rupiah Baht, etc., and further bruising the regional stock market (Azis……) concludes. Chapter 3 3.0 Research design The study will be descriptive in nature aiming at describing the effects of Tanzanian shilling fluctuation. 3.1 Study Population Male and females aged between 25 and 45 years of old. This group is within the working age category. 3.2 Scope of the study The scope of the study will lie on financial and economical issues in relation to currency. 3.3 Sample and sampling Techniques Sample size: The sample size for this study will be 30 which is the minimum acceptable sample. Sampling Technique: Convenient sampling technique will be used to obtain the respondents for the study.

3.4 Methods of data collection A questionnaire comprising of open and closed ended questions will be used to collect data from the respondents. Respondent asked for permission to participate in the study. 3.5 Methods of data analysis Data will be manually analyzed with the aid of calculator to calculate means, median, percentiles and presented in the form of tables, charts and narratives. 3.6 TIME SCHEDULE
| | | | | |
|S |Activity |Time |Responsible |Indicator |
| | | | | |
|No | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | |Start |End | | |
|1 |Develop proposal |16.10.06 |21.10.06 |Researchers |Proposal finalized |
|2 |Secure funds | | |Researchers |Funds available |
|3 |Pre-test data collection tool |01.11.2006 |07.11.2006 |Researchers |Pre testing done |
| |and analysis data | | | | |
|5 |Collect data (interviews) |10.11.2006 |20.12.2006 |Researchers |Data available |
|7 |Data entry and analysis |23.12.2006 |13.01.2007 |Researchers |Complete data entry |
|8 |Report writing |15.01.2007 |26.01.2007 |Researchers |Report available |

3.7 Financial budget

This shows the proposed amount required to finance the whole research plus the analysis of the use of that money. The proposed amount in conducting this research is Tshs 1,047,000/-

|Items/Details |Quantity |Price per unity |Amount required |
|Note book |1 |1,000 |1,000 |
|Photocopy papers |2Reams |4,800 |9,600 |
|Pens |5 |250 |1,250 |
|Pencils |1 |150 |150 |
|Secretarial services |- |- |80,000 |
|Binding |- |- |5,000 |
|Transport |- |- |50,000 |
|Researchers allowance |87 Days |10,000 Per day |870,000 |
|Emergencies |- |- |30,000 |
| | | | |
|TOTAL | | |1,047,000 |

3.8 Bibliography
Ali. M. S (2006), the drop of Tanzanian Shilling is a burden to low income earners (walalahoi), Mwananchi Oct 12, 2006 pg 14, Mwananchi Publishers Co Ltd, Dar es Salam.

Azis I. J

Brue. S .L & Mc Connell (2002), Economics-Principles, Problem and Policies Fifteenth Edit, McGraw-Hill Irwin.

Dornbusch. R. & Fischer. S. (1990), Macro-Economics Fifth Edit, McGraw-Hill Co, Singapore
.
Mchangilla G. D (2006), Treasurer-Citi Group (T) Ltd, Dar es Salaam.

Mshana S. Dr (2006), Lecturer-Primary Health Institute, Iringa.

Romer. D (2001), Advanced Macro- Economics, McGraw-Hill Higher Education, U.K.
Saleemi N. A (1987), Economics Simplified Second Edit, N. A Saleemi Publishers, Nairobi.

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