...Generally regression analysis is used with the regression equation. Here a linear equation is created to predict the Body fat (%) using 3 predictors or also known as independent variables which are the chest circumference, abdomen circumference and weight. From the result a line equation is formed , that is in the in form of (Y) = a + bx Where : (Y) is the average predicted value that is the variable which need to be estimated for any value of x. X is the independent variable and at each time a different predictor (independent variable) is used that is chest circumference, abdomen circumference and weight. A is the Y intercept . This is the Y value (body fat %) when x = 0 B is the slope of the regression line . This slope measures the average change in Y (the body fat %) for each unit change in x ( chest circumference, abdomen circumference and weight) The following are the result of the regressing which were attach after the result. Result 1 : Predicting Body Fat % Using chest circumference (Y) = -51.72 +0.697 X The slope of the equation is 0.697. This means that for every one unit increase in the chest circumference the body fat % will increase 0.697 unit. Result 2 : Predicting Body Fat...
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...Staffing Forecasting and Planning (Book Review) ORGS 6200 MANAGING HUMAN RESOURCES Synopses: J Phillips and S Gully start this well researched and practical book by stressing the importance of workforce planning through recognizing the value of strategic staffing on the company’s ability to improve its capabilities and survive any economic environment while reducing its labor related costs as well as many other expenses indirectly associated with its employees. It is further stressed that talent and its acquisition are to be treated as investments not costs of doing business. It is argued that a single most important factor in order to ensure an organization’s strategic goals are met, is its ability to hire the right people at the right time in order to enhance the firm’s return on its investment. The authors then further expand on this theory by defining a set of common goals for staffing forecasting and planning activities that can benefit any company in any industry and economic life cycle. In addition, the book discusses the importance of understanding a company’s strategy, goals and competition in order to identify what type of talents will the firm need and when. “Ensuring that the right people are in the place at the right time, requires understanding and forecasting the firm’s labor demand and maintaining an awareness of relevant pipelines of labor supply and talent. Action plans can then be developed to address any gaps between labor supply...
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...Forecasting Methods Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck. Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new technologies with uncanny accuracy. There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass. Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena. Trend extrapolation - These methods examine trends and cycles in historical data, and then use mathematical techniques to extrapolate to the future. The assumption of all these techniques is that the forces responsible for creating the past, will continue to operate in the future. This is often a valid assumption when forecasting short term horizons, but it falls short when creating medium and long term forecasts. The further out we attempt to forecast, the less certain we become of the forecast. The stability of the environment is the key factor in determining whether trend extrapolation is an appropriate forecasting...
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...packaged goods. There are no magical algorithms, forecasting tools, or proprietary process solutions that offer much more than a "like as" or analog-based planning solution. The companies that do the best job in forecasting new ¡Hnáucts work the details in a methodical way, challenge underlying assumptions, and examine all available data to givei: PATRICK BOWER Mr. Bower is Senior Director of Corporate Planning & Customer Service at Combe Incorporated, producer of high-quality personal care products. He is a frequent writer and speaker on supply chain subjects, and is a self-professed "S&OP geek." Prior to Combe, he was with a consulting firm where he worked for clients such as Diageo, Bayer, Glaxo Smith Kline, Pfizer, Foster Farms, Farley's and Sather, Cabot Industries, and American Girl. His experience also includes employment at Cadbury, Kraft Foods, Unisys, and Snapple. He has been twice recognized as a "Pro to Know" by Supply atid Detnand Chain Executive magazine. He is also the recipient of the IBF 2012 award for "Excellence in Business Forecasting & Planning." His expertise includes S&OP, demand planning, inventory, network optimization, and production scheduling. Copyright ©2013 Journal of Business Forecasting 1 All Rights Reserved I Winter 2012-2013 ne of the toughest demand planning tasks is forei goods world. Why? First, we don't really have good math tg^nnelp us. It would be great if there were a forecasting algorithm that reads consurriefs'' minds, but there...
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...improve deficient areas. By forecasting the needs of the company, Google is able to discover in advance, the crucial needs for the work force. Remedial action can also be taken well in advance if needed. The critical areas in the forecast are shortages in engineers and sales representatives. In an attempt to satisfy shortages in engineers and sales representatives, Google created an automated system to find the most talented individuals. Google also continues to make changes to its hiring process; the once grueling process had an effect on the expansion of the company. There are many companies that can follow Google’s Human Resource Plan to achieve success. Companies such as Facebook and Yahoo have to evaluate the core areas that need to be satisfied to further expansion. Firms have to determine the size of its workforce. There are many organizations that have equipment and the availability of funds, but not enough skilled individuals to participate in the production process. A shortage in staff can reduce the quality of goods and cause difficulty in meeting production deadlines. In other cases, companies may have a surplus in certain areas of production. A surplus can result in employees being underutilized. By forecasting, companies are able to balance the uncertainty and have the correct individuals operating in a corporation. HR planning is an ongoing process; therefore, evaluations are needed on a continuous basis. By successfully forecasting, organizations can devise a...
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...NOVA SOUTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY The Wayne Huizenga Graduate School of Business and Entrepreneurship-Master's ProgramS Assignment for Course: QNT 5040- Business Modeling Submitted to: Dr. Tom Griffin Submitted by: Prince A. Storr ps44@nova.edu Date of Course Meeting: November 18, 2011 Date of Submission: November 18, 2011 Title of Assignment: Greaves Brewery: 10 Month Forecasting CERTIFICATION OF AUTHORSHIP: I certify that I am the author of this paper and any assistance that I received in its preparation is fully acknowledged and disclosed in the paper. I have also cited any sources from which I used data, ideas, or words, either quoted directly or paraphrased. I also certify that this paper was prepared by me specifically for this course. Student Signature: Prince A Storr Instructor(s Grade on Assignment: Instructor(s Comments: Greaves Brewery: Ten Month Sales Forecasting Case Synopsis Alex Benson, purchasing manager for Greaves Brewery in Trinidad was faced with a dilemma in early 2004. He encountered difficulty in forecasting sales for 2004; particularly because of the 2003 slump, government excise taxes and other factors such as decreased numbers in both tourist arrivals to the Caribbean island and beer exports to the U.S. As purchasing manager, Benson’s prime responsibility was maintaining adequate inventory levels for all goods and materials used in the company’s production processes, including the purchase of new bottles and...
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...Bottlenecks in a Process Paper OPS/571 Bottlenecks in a process When defining what a process is in an organization, one might state that it is the process of transforming a set of inputs into a group of outputs that in turn are more value adding than the inputs alone (Chase, Jacobs, Aquilano). During the process of moving inputs to outputs many organizations benefit from identifying the potential bottlenecks in the process which may slow down the process. A similar process was conducted when creating a flow chart which described the decision making process of going fishing or staying home and going to a movie instead. One bottleneck that was quickly identified was with the inconsistencies of the weather forecasts. The measurement used was time leading up to the leave time for the trip and the inconsistent forecasts that were being made. The decision to be made relied solely on the consistent forecasts being provided by the three main weather channels for the area. To define a bottleneck, one would say that it is a process that unintentionally slows down or limits the maximum capacity of the said process (Chase, Jacobs, Aquilano). The bottleneck in this process actually hinders the decision of whether or not to go fishing or go to a movie and until an accurate and consistent forecast can be received, the decision cannot be made. Generally, fishing trips are planned and taken on the weekends so that one’s work is not affected; therefore there is time for the...
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...size of the market share and drivers of demand. It is also important how often major components fail and sent for repair. If a failed major components is beyond repair, it needs to be replaced with a new system. Followed by surveys and consultation of their customers. They are interested in finding out how changing customers demand for their products. Lastly the strategies which includes availability and reliability of data, right forecasting model, customer collaboration, sales and operations planning process and the measurement of forecast error. 3) What are the findings? ⇨ Due to relatively low demand and MRO, forecasting demand in the Aerospace and Defense industry is very challenging. The industry is currently going through major evolution in its forecasting practices in an effort to drive down cost and enhance service. Demand for new product and better services are further putting pressure on the A and D companies to improve forecast period. A concerted effort in enhancing data collection, statistical forecasting, customer collaboration and sales operations planning is required to achieve this goal. 4) What is the relevance of the study? 5) What is your opinion with regard to the ideas...
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...Planning Your Future Choosing the right major is complicated and so complex. There are some majors that sound interesting and some are boring. However, choosing the right major is important. It doesn't only give you good paid job, but it serves as your key to a better future goal. Moreover, deciding what major you want to take takes time, you have to do some research about the course description; and where and what colleges or universities you can go to that focus best regarding the majors. What was amusing about Mapping Your Future’s website was valuable information like the following: Assessing your skills and interested Consider your skills Develop a career plan (Explore Career para 3) This site even included sample career plan to finding work websites. I can see how this site will be beneficial for me. It provides step-by-step instruction on how I can obtain information to prepare me for my career choice. It also indicates the directions, tools and education needed to proceed with career choice. In addition to the employment website I already have, this website supplied me with additional information concerning other jobs site I can start working with in order to find employment in the chosen field of Human Resources. I will definitely look forward in obtaining and utilizing these resources now and as my career goals changes in the future. The future is looking brighter for me, I now know...
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...Applying Time Series Methodologies Derek Griffin RES/342 March 22, 2012 Olivia Scott Applying Time Series Methodologies MEMO To: Myra Reid, VP of Production From: Derek Griffin, Market Analyst Date: 22 March 2012 Subject: Three Week Analysis Simulation to Predict Blues Inc. Forecast Message: Over the past three weeks an indebt research analysis was conducted to provide Blues Inc reasonably accurate forecast that will ensure continued growth to the six percent market share of a 45 billion dollar industry. In week one the marketing team was given a directive from the Chief Executive Officer, Barbara Baderman, to have an effective advertising strategy in place to become the industry leader. A regression analysis was performed using sales as the selected variable for the strong positive relationship to advertising budget. The correlation coefficient of sales with the advertising budget is 0.96, which was higher than the relationship of competitors advertising budget or retail coverage. Sales with a lower standard error indicate a better predicted forecast. Using the regression equation and expected sales of 2,400 million, the forecasted advertising budget should be set at 162 million. During week two the marketing team was challenged to predict the market sales for the next year. Denim sales have increased five percent over the past four years and is expected to increase again next year. The team used the weighted moving average with a weight of .9 for the...
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...A Supply Chain Approach to Workforce Planning PETER CAPPELLI T H E G O O D O L D D A Y S O F M A N P OW E R P L A N N I N G Workforce planning wasn’t always an afterthought. ‘‘Manpower plans,’’ as they were known, had long been a crucial component of overall business planning. Their roots were in the World War II War Manpower Commission, which required businesses to report on expected staffing levels and requirements to prevent shortfalls in skilled workers that could derail production and the war effort. By the mid-1960s, a study of personnel departments found that 96% of corporations had a dedicated manpower planning function. The assumption in these models was that the supply of talent was within the control of the company, an internal function. The plans began by estimating what the internal supply of candidates would be in the future for each position and then matched that to assumptions about company growth in the demand for talent. Because the supply for all but entry-level jobs came only from within, managing that supply involved some hiring but focused on internal advancement and the rate at which candidates progressed from one job to the other. The peak of workforce planning was probably a late 1960s model called MANPLAN, which attempted to model the movement of individuals within a career system by including in the forecasts individual behavior and psychological variables such as worker...
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...Sales Forecast In this sales forecast with applying time series methodologies the company Blues Inc. has some dilemma’s they need to look at and with a sales forecast it can give them a good overview of what to expect and how to prepare for any losses or new ideas. Myra here is a sales forecast of how it can be analyzed and what to look for in the future for improvements. By using sales as an independent variable we are able to get a better view as to what our budget is and what the company can spend on to make a little more profit each quarter or year. The advertising budget will be a little bit more expensive but the return on investment will be greater than it was the year before. The fluctuations in the denim market are promising, a lot of people love to wear denim but there is a period where the sales do drop but they pick back up after the third year of being lower than usual. By looking into the future and using past forecasts the company Blues Inc. will be able to stay on top and grab a piece of the pie so to speak. By using a quarterly forecast we can find out in what month’s people aren’t buying denim and how much they are buying. Advertising Budget and Quarterly Forecast Going into any business there are going to be ups and downs. By looking at similar businesses forecasts and using that as a basis to know how much product the business needs to be profitable we can make an educated decision in what the business needs and what it doesn’t need. ...
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...your business plan to determine the resources you need to achieve the business’s goals. It will better prepare you for staff turnover, recruitment, and strategic hiring – and alleviate stress when you have emergency/last-minute hiring needs. This module provides a detailed outline of how small business owners can develop a human resource plan. There is also a discussion of issues to consider when developing a succession plan, the plan that is needed to consider how to carry on the business, or sell the business, when the current management/ownership leaves. Tips for creating a personnel policy manual are also included. Module 1 - p 2 Managing Your Human Assets Module 1: Human Resource Planning 2. DEVELOPING AN HR PLAN 2.1 Forecasting Hiring Needs The daily demands and hectic lifestyle of business owners and managers often has an unfortunate...
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...TOPIC 1. FUNDAMENTALS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING TOPIC I TOPIC I. FUNDAMENTALS OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING Contents 1. Meaning of forecasting 2. Features, importance and limitations of forecasting 3. Forecast types 1. Meaning of forecasting Forecast is a likely, scientifically well-grounded opinion about the possible state of the events, objects or processes in the future. Forecasting is a process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. Forecasting is a process of predicting or estimating the future based on past and present data. Economic Forecasting is a process of making forecasts based on analysis of past trends and regularities of the economic processes. Economic forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation – for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit – or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific companies. Economic forecasting provides information about the potential future events and their consequences for the organization. It may not reduce the complications and uncertainty of the future. However, it increases the confidence of the management to make important decisions. Economic forecasting includes the following steps: 1. Identifying items to be forecast. The items of socio-economic forecasting are the economic processes (for example, inflation, demand, supply), any indicator describing the company activity (for example...
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...Discussion Questions: 1,7, and 15 1: (a) What is forecasting? Why is it so important in the management of business firms and other enterprises? (b) What are the different types of forecasting? (c) How can the firm determine the most suitable forecasting method to use? a) Forecasting is used to try and predict the economic activity of a firm’s future. It aims to reduce risk/uncertainty that is faced in the short-term operational decision making. It is also used to plan for the firm’s long-term growth. Forecasting helps make decisions by using macroforecasts of the general economic activity as inputs for their microforecasts of the industry’s and firm’s demand and sales. Forecasting helps decide a firm’s marketing strategy, production needs, sales forecast, and helps predict financial needs such as cash flow, profits, and outside financing. Furthermore, it helps make personal based decisions, as well as assist for the long-term future of the firm (Salvatore, 2012). b) Forcasting types range from expensive to inexpensive, as well as simple to complex. Forecasting techniques can be qualitative, and others can be quantitative. Salvatore focuses on qualitative forecasts. These forecasts include: time-series, smoothing techniques (moving averages), barometric forecasts with leading indicators, econometric forecasts, and input-output forecasts. c) A firm determines the most suitable forecasting method to use by using the following criterion: ...
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