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Exercise Study

In: Business and Management

Submitted By harsh12
Words 477
Pages 2
Exercise- 1: ORDROID FORECASTING
You have just been hired by a company that manufactures mid-range communication devices that use the Ordroid open source operating system. The company is focused on innovating its products and has not put much thought on its inventory or forecasting capabilities. Your boss thinks there might be a problem in the forecasting of the Ordroid Devices and wants you to figure it out. The Ordroid, far from being new to the market, has been out for two years.
Knowing this, you have asked for data on both years of historical sales as well as any forecasts, promotions, pricing changes, or competitive analysis made during this time. Your boss laughs and provides you with all the data they have the last six months of sales. You ask to meet with the current demand planner for the Ordroid Devices and she tells you that they use a forecasting algorithm of her own design and there is no documentation. 1.1 A. As the first step, you want to calculate some different performance metrics for the small data sample. Recall that the definition of the error term is the actual demand minus the forecasted demand.
What is the mean deviation of the forecasts in this data sample?
1.1B. What is the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the forecasts in this data sample? 1.1 C. What is the root mean square error (RMSE) of the forecasts in this data sample? 1.1 D. What is the mean percent error (MPE) of the forecasts in this data sample? 1.2 E. What is the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of the forecasts in this data sample? 1.1 A. Based on your analysis, answer the following questions.
What can you say about the presence seasonality of demand? a) There appears to be seasonality with lower demand in the summer b) There appears to be no seasonality c) There is not enough data to evaluate for seasonality
1.2 B. What can you say about the presence of a trend in the demand? a) There appears to be a positive trend in demand. b) There appears to be a negative trend in demand. c) There does not appear to be any trend in demand. d) There is not enough data to evaluate for a trend.
1.2 C. What can you say about the bias of the forecast? a) The forecast appears to be positively biased. b) The forecast appears to be negatively biased. c) The forecast appears to not be biased. d) There is not enough data to evaluate for bias.

1.2 D. What can you say about the accuracy of the forecast? a) This appears to be a highly accurate forecast. b) This does not appear to be a highly accurate forecast. c) There is not enough data to evaluate for accuracy.

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