...past recessions, should be going forward and getting better, but is it? According to statistics from Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the United States is still trying to recover. The gross domestic product rate keeps going up and down; it does not keep going up, as it did in past recessions. What is to become of the United States if President Obama cannot get us out of the recession? EXPECTED U.S. GDP GROWTH RATE GOING FORWARD The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is an important indicator of the U.S. economic health. The slope of the yield curve – the spread between long and short - term interest rates – is a good predictor of future economic activity. As these slopes shift, you will get periods of high and low growth in GDP. There are three different methods of determining GDP. The first one is estimating each industry’s gross output and subtracts intermediate inputs from other industries to derive each industry’s residual value-added, which is sometimes called the production approach (Wells and Krugman, 2009). The second method is the income approach, which measures the income earned by the different factors of production (Wells et al). The third method is the final expenditures approach, which shows what is happening across different types of spending throughout the economy, usually done annually (Wells et al). The calculation is GDP = C (Consumption) + I (Investment)...
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...industry and research institutions. The survey participants were asked to provide their forecast for key macro economic variables for the year 2011-12 as well as for Quarter 1 (Apr-June) and Quarter 2 (July-Sep) of 2011-12. In addition to these, views were sought on two topical issues – whether RBI should be prepared to deal with the possibility of another global slowdown and the expected stance of RBI in the forthcoming monetary policy review on July 26th, 2011. The feedback received from the survey participants was aggregated and analyzed. The results obtained are presented in the following pages. The findings of the survey represent the views of respondents and do not reflect the views of FICCI. 2|P a g e FICCI Economic Outlook Survey – July 2011 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Annual forecasts for 2011-12 GDP growth – 7.9 percent Agriculture & allied activities growth – 3.8 percent Industry growth – 7.3 percent Services growth – 9.4 percent Fiscal Deficit – 5.1 percent of GDP WPI Inflation rate (end March 2012) – 6.6 percent IIP growth – 7.3 percent Trade Balance – (-) 7.5 percent of GDP Current...
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...Threats to the Colombian Market 9 5.4.1 Risks of the fluctuation of the Colombian Peso interest rate 10 5. 3 scenarios 11 5.1 Scenario 1 11 5.2 scenario 2 14 6.3 Scenario 3 15 6. Advice 16 7. Bibliografy 17 1. Introduction The two currencies that have been chosen for this report are the Colombian peso and the US Dollar. The bank of Utrecht will consider the possible investing situations based on the 3 scenarios presented on these reports with the different hedging techniques and the possible return on investment the project can make against the risk taken. The 3 scenarios used will display what could possibly take place in the countries the bank of Utrecht will partake in. The two currencies will be borrowed from one country and lent to other on the basis that the currency will appreciate on the long term and the interest rate that will be compounded will help the bank of Utrecht make the decision to how exposed it will want to be when running the risks in those countries. There will be a macro-analysis of the USA and Colombia, analyzing the possible the economic, political and the yield curve of the interest the currency will be that is invested in. 2. Why the Currencies The reason why the Colombian Peso and the United States Dollar was chosen, was because the Colombian currency is showing signs of appreciating in the future. The prime interest rate in the South American country, Colombia, is approximately 8,7% right now and it is continuing to...
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...The Index The Index | 1 | The Introduction | 2 | Financial Subprime Mortgage Crisis Causes | 3 | Introduction & Background to the Situation of the Egyptian Economy prior to the Global Financial crisis | 10 | Financial Subprime Mortgage Crisis Impacts on Egypt | 13 | The Egyptian Economy & the crisis | 21 | The Conclusion & Solutions | 23 | The References | 27 | The Introduction In the second half of 2008, the world economy went through a serious financial upheaval that sparked off in the United States and spread to Europe and the rest of the world. The negative consequences of this financial crisis had bitten the Egyptian economy in many fields. Egypt’s growth rate witnessed setbacks and may have posted its slowest annual growth in half a decade in 2008–2009 as the global crisis hit revenue from tourism, migrant labor remittances, the Suez Canal, export revenues, and investment. The severity of the crisis and its uncertainties demonstrated the need for urgent action to restore financial stability, lead the economic recovery and secure a sustainable future for the country. This paper therefore critically discusses the current global financial crisis and its impact on Egypt. It presents an overview of the Egyptian economy prior to the crisis, followed by an assessment of the depth and impact of the crisis on sectors of the Egyptian economy. Additionally, the paper highlights the actions taken by the Egyptian government to weather the effects...
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...Shylinda Graystreete Dr.Davis - Unit 2 Individual Project 29 July 2012 Expected U.S. GDP growth rate going forward The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a major factor that shows how the economy will either get better or worse. The GDP is how we can measure the spending and production of the U.S. The GDP is a total measurement usually calculated quarterly (Russell, 2012). These calculations show change to the economy even if products and services increased or decreased, According to Russell, (2012) regardless of changes in the purchasing power of the currency. There are many things that affect our economy such as international debt, increase in taxes, the effect to interest rates, the rise in unemployment, the poor failing real estate market, lack of investing, lack of spending by consumers, which is directly affected because of lack of employment. Some believe that the economy will eventually recover. This may be a slow process, however. Those in the business world believe this will most likely put inflation at a standstill. (TBQ, 2012). It is predicted that the GDP will continue to go up and down for years to come as the US tries to recover from the economic slump that it has found itself in unless congress and the president can pull us out. There are three different methods of determining GDP. The first one is estimating each industry’s gross output or production (Wells and Krugman, 2009). Second would be to measure income (Wells et al). Third would be expenditures...
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...values added to the process of goods from natural resources. | Production factors | Resources used for production 1. Labor 2. Natural resources 3. Capital | Gross Domestic Products (GDP) | Total production of goods and services within the borders of a country | Comparison of GDP per capita3 steps | 1. Calculate the GDP per capita ( GDP/population) 2. Convert to a common currency 3. Adjust for the differences in the purchasing power of the currency per country | Economic growth | Growth in production | Welfare/well-being | The sense of contentment or satisfaction people in a society have | Human Development Index (HDI) | A metric to determine the welfare of a population | 3 ways to measure production | 1. Production approach: Adding up the total added value of the goods and services of a country 2. Income approach: Adding up all the remuneration for the resource owners in that country 3. Expenditure approach: Adding up all the expenditure of the country | Gross National Income (GNI) | Total production + Total Income | Production factors of capital | 1. Durable capital goods (>1 year) 2. Floating capital goods (<1 year) 3. Consumables (Added during the processes) | Production factors of labor | 1. The size of population 2. Participation rate | Causes of rises in wage costs | 1. Scarcity of labor market 2. Increased labor productivity 3. Increased consumer price index 4. Increase in social security and contribution policy...
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...considered post-industrial, it continues to be one of the world's largest manufacturers.5 The country accounts for 37% of global military spending,6 being the world's foremost economic and military power, a prominent political and cultural force, and a leader in scientific research and technological innovations.7 Economy The United States has a capitalist mixed economy which is fueled by abundant natural resources and high productivity.8 According to the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. GDP of $16.8 trillion constitutes 24% of the gross world product at market exchange rates and over 19% of the gross world product at purchasing power parity (PPP).9Its national GDP was about 5% larger at PPP in 2014 than the European Union's, whose population is around 62% higher.10 However, the US's nominal GDP is estimated to be $17.528 trillion as of 2014, which is about 5% smaller than that of the European Union.11 From 1983 to 2008, U.S. real compounded annual GDP growth was 3.3%, compared to a 2.3% weighted average for the The New York Times Guide to Essential Knowledge, Second...
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...13 | LIST OF GRAPHS | Graphs | Page | 1.GDP Over Years | 6 | 2.Sector Wise Contribution(2005-09) | 9 | 3. Average retail rents/region Comparitive Hotel Occupancy Rates | 11 | 4. Comparitive Hotel Occupancy Rates GNI of UAE over the years | 11 | 5. GNI of UAE over the years | 14 | 6. GNI per capita of UAE over the years | 15 | 7. Unemployment Rate 2006-2012 | 16 | 8. Unemployment and UAE Nationals Participation in the labour market. | 17 | * 9. Inflation in UAE in recent times | 18 | * 10. Average Retail Rents/Region * | 19 | * 11. Current Account Balance of UAE 2004-2014 | 20 | Contents Topic | Pageno. | 1.Introduction | 4 | 2.GDP of UAE | 6 | 3.Factors affecting GDP | 6 | 4.Contribution of different sector | 8 | 5.GDP of UAE in 2013 | 9 | 6.Hydrocarbon Sector | 11 | 7.GNP of UAE | 13 | 8.Unemployment rate in UAE | 16 | 9.Implication of unemployment rate | 17 | 10.Inflation | 18 | 11.BOP | 20 | 12.Fiscal Policy | 21 | 13.Monetary Policy | 21 | 14.Analysis of exchange rate | 22 | 15.Recovery from global Recession | 23 | 16.Conclusion | 24 | INTRODUCTION Thirty years ago the United Arab Emirates was considered as one of the least developed countries of the world. But now an income level has been reached which can be compared to the industrialized nations. The UAE’s economy is the second largest in the Arab World (after Saudi Arabia) with GDP of $377 billion in 2012. The UAE has been trying...
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...6? The iPhone 6-era produced more growth than the iPhone 5-era (trend is in the right direction), AAPL is opening more retail stores in China now than ever before, China’s middle class is growing at a rate of 10% (assuming China GDP growth of 7%) and is expected to be 1.5x the size of the US middle class in 2017, and 30% of iPhone buyers are switching from Android. Although it was arguably reasonable for analysts to sound the alarm bells from 2013 through 2014 because era-over-era growth dropped from 563.3% (iPhone 4-era) to 51.1% (iPhone 5 era), it is unfounded today given a conservative iPhone 6 era-over-era growth estimate of approximately 63% (30%+ per year). This report focuses on the iPhone because it generates nearly 70% of AAPL revenue and 100% of growth. I bought AAPL on 2/16/2016 at $95.0 because the Street’s 2017 revenue and earnings estimates are irrationally low. Thesis Summary: * The Street focuses on QoQ growth rates and next quarter guidance, which equates to comparing every iPhone release with the previous release in order to project short to medium term iPhone revenue growth. This methodology would have an investor think that iPhone growth is slowing and the iPhone 7 will produce far lower growth than the 5 (~25%/year) or the iPhone 6 (~30%/year) * The reasonable/rational way to think about iPhone growth is “era-over-era” because all iPhone releases are not comparable and one ought to expect AAPL's revenue growth to be lumpy. I refer to this business...
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...industry and has always been the source of growth of most economy. However, for Jamaica this sector's has been impeded by a number of factors including crime, high energy costs, reduced access to affordable raw materials and thereby resulted in a decline in the industry. THE FOUNDATION Jamaica possesses a highly diversified manufacturing industry whose development has been based on continuous investment from other countries, which has produced high-quality products and dominated the country’s export over the last 50 years. A primary force behind the increase in the manufacturing industry resulted from the shortage of goods after World War 11, therefore a lot of the international goods were produced locally. In its early stages of development of the manufacturing industry was overwhelmed with opportunities. With the support of Government, an entrepreneurial class, a local market that could facilitate over 1 million individuals, and labour in abundance, the manufacturing industry was unstoppable. The company was moving so rapid that sectors quickly diversified from sugar and rum into producing a wide range of manufactured products such as garments, processed foods, machinery, and electrical equipment, and this resulted in an impressive growth. Real value increased for the sector increased at an average of 7% annually between 1938 and 1950, and its contribution to GDP increased from 6.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent during the period. Growth continued annually in real terms between...
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...Confederation of Indian Industry CII 13th Manufacturing Summit 2014 Make In India: Turning Vision Into Reality The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global management consulting firm and the world’s leading advisor on business strategy. We partner with clients from the private, public, and not-forprofit sectors in all regions to identify their highest-value opportunities, address their most critical challenges, and transform their enterprises. Our customized approach combines deep in ight into s the dynamics of companies and markets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our clients achieve sustainable compettive advantage, build more i capable organizations, and secure lasting results. Founded in 1963, BCG is a private company with 81 offices in 45 countries. For more information, please visit bcg.com. The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) works to create and sustain an environment conducive to the development of India, partnering industry, Government, and civil society, through advisory and consultative processes. CII is a non-government, not-for-profit, industry-led and industry-managed organization, playing a proactive role in India‘s development process. Founded in 1895, India‘s premier business association has over 7200 members, from the private as well as public sectors, including SMEs and MNCs, and an indirect membership of over 100,000 enterprises from around 242 national and regional...
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...Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures Edited by Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin CEPR Press a A VoxEU.org Book Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures A VoxEU.org eBook Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Centre for Economic Policy Research 3rd Floor 77 Bastwick Street London, EC1V 3PZ UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7183 8801 Email: cepr@cepr.org Web: www.cepr.org ISBN: 978-1-907142-77-2 © CEPR Press, 2014 Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes, and Cures A VoxEU.org eBook edited by Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin CEPR Press abcde Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of almost 900 research economists based mostly in European universities. The Centre’s goal is twofold: to promote world-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the hands of key decision-makers. CEPR’s guiding principle is ‘Research excellence with policy relevance’. A registered charity since it was founded in 1983, CEPR is independent of all public and private interest groups. It takes no institutional stand on economic policy matters and its core funding comes from its Institutional Members and sales of publications. Because it draws on such a large network of researchers, its output reflects a broad spectrum of individual viewpoints as well as perspectives drawn from civil society. CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Executive Committee of the Centre does not give prior...
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...Economic Reforms in Asia: The Indian Case Study The Asian economy has seen a rapid rise over the past decade with countries such as China, India and South Korea making major headways. China, being the leader of the group, has been largely tipped by many economists to overtake the US as the world’s superpower by 2025. Asian GDP Performance (1997-2005) Source: http://www.treasury.gov.au The success of these nations came on the back of major economic reforms which transformed these sleeping giants into what it is today. China went through a major economic reform in 1979 and soon thereafter success followed. India, followed the same path, but much later than China, and it was not until the turn on the 1990s that India went on the path of economic liberalisation. This paper will focus on the economic reforms that took place in India and its impact on the country in terms of trade and macroeconomics growth and the birth of new economy. A section of this paper will also be comparing the growth of India in comparison to its Chinese counterparts as well as discuss reasoning behind critics who believe liberalisation was not the main contributor to the growth India is achieving today. Pre-Reform Period Post independence, India saw the need to move from an agrarian economy to an industrial one and as such building its competency in crucial sectors of the economy was important. The role of government therefore included economic management...
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...Deficits, National Saving, and Interest Rates William G. Gale and Peter R. Orszag September 2004 Brookings Institution and Tax Policy Center. This paper was prepared for the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, September 9-10, 2004. We thank Emil Apostolov, Matt Hall, Brennan Kelly, and Melody Keung for outstanding research assistance; Alan Auerbach, William Brainard, Robert Cumby, Bill Dickens, Doug Elmendorf, Eric Engen, Laurence Kotlikoff, Thomas Laubach, Maria Perozek, George Perry, Frank Russek, Matthew Shapiro, and David Wilcox for helpful discussions; and Eric Engen, Jane Gravelle, and Thomas Laubach for sharing data. ABSTRACT This paper provides new evidence that sustained budget deficits reduce national saving and raise interest rates by economically and statistically significant quantities. Using a series of econometric specifications that nest Ricardian and non-Ricardian models, we obtain evidence of strong non-Ricardian behavior in aggregate consumption. Consistent with several recent studies, we find that projected future deficits affect longterm interest rates, but current deficits do not. Our estimates suggest that each percent-ofGDP in current deficits reduces national saving by 0.5 to 0.8 percent of GDP. Each percent-of-GDP in projected future unified deficits raises forward long-term interest rates by 25 to 35 basis points, and each percent-of-GDP in projected future primary deficits raises interest rates by 40 to 70 basis points. Budget...
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...direct exposure to the sub-prime mortgage assets or to the failed institutions. It has very limited off-balance sheet activities or securitized assets. In fact, our banks continue to remain safe and healthy. So, the enigma is how can India be caught up in a crisis when it has nothing much to do with any of the maladies that are at the core of the crisis. The second reason for dismay is that India's recent growth has been driven predominantly by domestic consumption and domestic investment. External demand, as measured by merchandize exports, accounts for less than 15 per cent of our GDP. The question then is, even if there is a global downturn, why should India be affected when its dependence on external demand is so limited? The answer to both the above frequently-asked questions lies in globalization. First, India's integration into the world economy over the last decade has been remarkably rapid. Integration into the world implies more than just exports. Going by the common measure of globalization, India's two-way trade (merchandize exports plus imports), as a proportion of GDP, grew from 21.2 per cent in 1997-98, the year of the Asian crisis, to 34.7 per cent in 2007-08. Second, India's financial integration with the world has been as deep as India's trade globalization, if not deeper. If we take an expanded measure...
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