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Falling Rupee

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Submitted By singhdharmendra
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Rupee heading for 60? It is difficult to stop the slide
The Indian rupee is making headlines today, but mostly for the wrong reasons. Its value has been falling against the US dollar steadily and since the beginning of 2012, it has fallen 23 per cent, closing at a record low of Rs 55.39 on Tuesday. The worrisome fact, however, is that no one has any inkling, the government and the Finance Ministry the least, as to how deep the rupee will fall and how long will the downturn last? Research units of some banks have already predicted that the rupee may soon touch 60 to a dollar.

About a month ago when the rupee was at 48, such predictions would have looked preposterous, but not anymore. Worst, neither the Finance Ministry nor the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) can do much to stop the fall.

There are several reasons behind this pessimistic view. The most important factor is that India’s deficit in foreign trade – excess of imports against exports – has ballooned to an all time high of $185 billion in 2011-12, a whopping 56 per cent more than $119 in 2010-11.

Similarly, the import bill for gold and silver was at $60 billion, the second largest item in the basket.

Our imports went up by 32 per cent in 2011-12 to Rs 489 crore, our exports at Rs 304 crore were higher by 21 per cent. Since the financial turmoil in Europe has resulted in severe demand contractions in many European countries, a major destination for Indian exports, India’s total export earnings, experts believe, are likely to stagnate or marginally go up in the current year.

Imports, on the other hand, will keep growing as the country will consume more of oil (we import 80 per cent of our need), coal (for producing power and steel) and fertiliser (to sustain food production). Thanks to doubling of customs duty, gold consumption in 2012-13 is likely to be lower.

There is no doubt that we need to curb

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