...INDONESIA: The Causes, Effects and Lessons of the 1997 East Asian Financial Crisis by Zara Ahmed Julia Dreier Frank Ro April 9, 2007 FSPP 556: Macroeconomics Professor Kathryn Dominguez [pic] Introduction Following its independence in 1945, the Indonesia economy deteriorated drastically as a result of political instability, a young inexperienced government, and ill-disciplined economic nationalism. However, the New Order administration in the 1960s, brought about a new degree of discipline to economic policy that quickly brought inflation down, managed foreign debt, but more importantly, attracted foreign investment through financial liberalization. As massive inflows of foreign investment poured into the country, problems soon arose with regulation and oversight. These structural weaknesses created instability and ultimately multiplied the effects of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. With strong encouragement of the IMF, Indonesia adopted a set of policies to protect currency values and penalize insolvent companies, in order to restore investor and creditor confidence in the country. Despite assistance from the International Monetary Fund, the Crisis devastated the Indonesian economy and brought on massive social unrest. This paper consists of six parts. We intend to analyze pre, during, and post-crisis trends utilizing such macroeconomic models as the Mundell-Fleming model, the IS-LM model, and the open economy model for calculating...
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...| Asian Crisis of 1997 | | | Prepared by:Azra Becirovic and Sanela Bilalic | | April 21, 2012 | Long before Asian financial crisis has started, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia had an increasing economic performance; economy was fast growing, saving rates were high, and inflation low. Turning point in Asian economy was 2 July 1997, the day when Thai Baht fell around 20 % against the $US. “It all began in Thailand’ summarizes the conventional explanation of the early stages of the crisis.” (Hill, p.3) How it all began, what factors caused the crisis, what segments were affected the most, what was the backup plan, and what policies should have been taken to prevent the crisis are the points that this paper will cover. First and Second-Generation Models According to 1996 annual report of Bank for International Settlements (BIS), pre-crisis fundamentals exhibit economic performance of Asian countries. They’ve experienced moderate inflation rates of about 6%, high savings rate of 32%, and trade openness indicators of 39%. Table 1: East Asian Economic Conditions Before Crisis Although accounting and macroeconomic analytics have failed to foreseen the currency crisis, which is inevitable, first and second-generation models explain us was it due to weakening macroeconomic fundamentals or financial contagion. In accordance to first-generation model developed by Krugman 1979, market-speculative movements, in response to policies, are incompatible...
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...Causes of the Indonesian Financial Crisis When the financial crisis hit Asian countries in mid-1997, Indonesia did not escape the impact. It became one of the worst hit countries during the crisis. The question to be answered is what really caused Indonesia, which at the time had a magnificent economic growth to collapse along with most of Asian countries. This paper studies the factors that may be causing the crisis and how the combination of them could lead to such crisis. Indonesia’s Economy before the Crisis * Indonesia under the governance of President Suharto was considered a growing and vastly developing country, with a 7.9% growth in GDP in 1996. GDP per capita first surpassed $1000 in 1995, growing significantly from mere $70 thirty years ago. Total GDP was US$227 billion in 1996. (exhibit 1) * Surplus on merchandise trade through the 1980s and 1990s. Manufactured exports grew from less than US$1 billion in 1980 to more than US$9 billion in 1990. In 1996 total exports was US$49.8 billion, with a growth of 9.7% from the previous year. 76.5% are from non-oil and gas exports. Main destinations were Japan followed by USA and Singapore. * In 1996, imports totaled US$42.9 billion, grew 5.7% from the previous year. * Indonesia was the third-largest FDI recipient in the Asia Pacific, averaging over US$31 billion per year from 1994 to 1996. In 1997 before the crisis, FDI was US$16 billion. * In 1991, foreign debt increased 66% from 1988. In 1992, the total...
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...IMF’s Role on Asian Crisis In July of 1997 Thailand devalued the Baht and thus began the ‘Asian Crisis’ that would soon affect other Southeast Asian countries including the other two that were hit the hardest Indonesia and South Korea. Each country had no choice but to seek help from The International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF would have to pull through in aiding these countries out of this crisis, after carefully reviewing each country and see to what extent their financial problems had developed. As you can see below on Graph 1 each country’s exchange rate had depreciated tremendously during the crisis. With the demise of each Country’s currency their public debt, as shown on Chart 2 below, had grown tremendously. Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea each developed specific financial restructuring measures that were agreed upon with the IMF. Graph 1: Chart 2: It all started on May 14th 1997 when Thailand started pouring foreign currency into the market in order to ‘to defend the Thai baht against speculative attacks,’ according to the “TimeLine of the Crisis” written by PBS. Two months later the Baht had reached an all-time low of 20% devaluation. Indonesia started to widen its ‘trading band for the rupiah in a move to discourage speculators’ only seven days after Indonesia’s reach for assistance (PBS). No more than two weeks pass until the Singapore dollar starts to devalue. Shortly after that, the Rupiah plummeted when Indonesia allowed the currency...
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...Economics and Management in Developing Countries INSEAD P4 Assignment MICROFINANCE in INDONESIA By Dewi BRAMONO Ming CHUNG Yoonmi EOM Kevin LAM Yenn Khan Executive Summary • • Microfinance in Indonesia can be traced back to more than a century ago, where village credit organizations (BKDs) offered small loans to villagers. Today, BRI unit desa of Indonesia is one of the most successful and profitable microfinance institutions in the world with more than 3.1 million borrowers with a gross loan portfolio of more than USD 1.7b as of Dec 2003. Indonesia’s successful experience in microfinance is further shown during the hard-hitting Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 to 1998. At a time when commercial banks were collapsing, savings in microfinance institutions rose from IDR 8 trillion in 1997 to about IDR16 trillion in 1998, as depositors sought the stability of these institutions. There are however some outstanding issues: o Inadequate outreach to the rural community o Politics impact the microfinance efforts negatively o Lack of awareness of microfinance among stakeholders o Microfinance may not be the answer for the poorest of the poor. Recommendations include: o Greater co-ordination required with the NGOs to target the poorest of poor, especially in the rural areas(through aid, training and provision of the infrastructure) o Increase the awareness of the benefits of microfinance, and to educate stakeholders accordingly. • • • Page 1 of 12 Economics and Management...
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...to the economic crisis which faced Indonesia in 1997, which in turn led to Indonesia making major reforms in government as well as in every other sector. It also looks at the major factors that also have to be improved even though major reforms have swept the nation. The policy of decentralisation, although done for the better, has its drawbacks which can hurt Indonesia in the long run. Contents - Executive Summary 2 -Acknowledgements 3 -Introduction To The Topic 3 -Background Literature Survey 4 -Observations 8 -Conclusions and Recommendations For Future Studies 9 -Appendix/Bibliography/References 10 Acknowledgements I would like to thank Prof. Perrie, for initiating this project and letting us choose suitable topics to analyse. Introduction to topic Indonesia is a country with around 240 million people. From being one of the worst hit countries of the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998 it has become one of the largest countries in the South East Asia in terms of Economy. With a population so big and also a diverse ethnic culture to keep in mind the reforms which were propagated after the financial crisis has been largely the decentralisation of the Government. Background Literature Survey Indonesia has seen many difficulties...
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...5 Abstract This paper investigates the impact of real interest rate on national saving in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. We analyze impact real interest rate to nation saving for ASEAN starting 1991-2013. Through an analysis from Excel, real interest rate is found to have significant impact on national saving during different stage of economic. Extensions using a graph reveal the impact of real interest rate in ASEAN-5 and thus mainly reflect heightened concerns to national savings amid the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis. Keywords: real interest rate, national saving, financial crisis 1.0 Introduction The world’s average saving rate has been declining since the first oil shock and through the early 1990s. However this trend conceals a large and increasing dispersion of saving rates, particularly among developing countries. The large heterogeneity in saving behavior is associated to country and time differences in levels of development, growth performance, and fiscal and financial policies. The level of real interest rates has once again become the focus of policy makers' concerned. To understanding the response of national saving to changes in interest rates is central to many issues in economic policy. For example, a reduction in the budget deficit would probably cause interest rates to decline. If personal saving declined as a result, the overall increase...
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...International Monetary Funds (IMF) in the East Asian Debt Crisis of 1997 By Yaro Sadek Tahirou Minnesota State University, Mankato 2 ABSTRACT During the East Asian Financial crisis in particular, the IMF has been criticized of promoting international cooperation because of the supervised enforcement of its rules. The purpose of this research is to find out how the IMF responded to the East Asian debt crisis and whether or not its responses were the best possible responses to this crisis. Through my research, I talked about the causes of the East Asian financial crisis, the role of the IMF in the international monetary system, and if the IMF responses to Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia were the best responses or not. After analyzing the IMF responses in this crisis, I found that the IMF policies need to be reformed in order to monitor and prevent future financial crises spill-over effects at the global and regional levels. I will analyzed 5 scholarly journals on the financial crisis in East Asia, 3 scholarly articles on the role of IMF in the East Asia financial crisis, and 1 novel called POLITICS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA DEMOCRACY OR LESS by William Case. INTRODUCTION Several financial crises have occurred in the world economy through the last decades. Some examples include the East Asian financial Crisis of 1997, the Latin American debt crisis of 1994-95, the Russian crisis of 1998, and the Brazilian crisis of 1998-99 which spread out to other areas also known as the...
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...on Growth Diagnostics of Indonesia February 6, 2013 I. Introduction The goal of every country is to achieve not only sustainable development but also inclusive growth. Sustainable development, as defined by the Brundtland Commission, is a "development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs". Inclusive growth on the other hand, pertains to an equitable allocation of resources to every sector of the society which in effect decreases the rapid growth rate of poverty, at the same time increasing the involvement of its people to the growth of the country. To be considered as an industrialized and developed country, one must take consideration on the political, social and most importantly the economic aspect in order for the country to be competitive in the market and also promote a high standard of living. Those prerequisites can be achieved by determining first the factors that trigger the economic growth of a country and that include infrastructures, human capital, literacy, safety, and other indicators. In layman’s term, an economy can be defined as the system that is used to manage the resources in a country. It is often used as an indicator to measure how rich or poor a country and its people are. When an economy is doing well, the government is able to meet the needs of the people and its country. In this paper, we will study the growth diagnostics of Indonesia to determine how far the...
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...IMF-Supported Programs in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand A Preliminary Assessment Timothy Lane, Atish Ghosh, Javier Hamann, Steven Phillips, Marianne Schulze-Ghattas, and Tsidi Tsikata INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Washington DC 1999 © 1999 International Monetary Fund Production: IMF Graphics Section Typesetting: Alicia Etchebarne-Bourdin Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF-supported programs in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand : a preliminary assessment / by Timothy Lane . . . [et al.]. — [Washington DC : International Monetary Fund], 1999. p. cm. — (Occasional paper, 0251-6365); no. 178 Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 1-55775-783-6 1. Indonesia—Economic policy. 2. Korea—Economic policy. 3. Thailand—Economic policy. 4. International Monetary Fund—Indonesia. 5. International Monetary Fund—Korea. 6. International Monetary Fund—Thailand. I. Lane, Timothy D. (Timothy David), 1955- II. Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund); no. 178. HC447.I44 1999 Price: US$18.00 (US$15.00 to full-time faculty members and students at universities and colleges) Please send orders to: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A. Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Internet: http://www.imf.org recycled paper Contents Preface I Overview Timothy Lane and Marianne Schulze-Ghattas References II Background to the Crisis Javier Hamann Financial Vulnerabilities Macroeconomic...
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...An Overview of The Asian Financial Crisis Prepared for Mahrufa Bashar Assistant Professor Course Instructor: International Finance Prepared by S.M. Ishtiuaque (ZR 30) Md. Sakib Khaled (ZR 55) Md. Mahmudur Rahman (ZR 82) Mazharul Islam Bin Towhid (ZR 89) Debojit Saha (ZR 110) BBA 18th batch Institute of Business Administration, University of Dhaka October 02, 2013 Contents 1. Introduction 2 2. Background of the Asian Financial Crisis 2 3. Development of the Crisis 3 4. Reasons Behind the Crisis 4 5. Solutions to Problem 5 6. Conclusion 6 ------------------------------------------------- 1. Introduction In 1993 the Worldbank, celebrating the outstanding performance of eight Asian economies, coined the term ‘The Asian Miracle’. Less than five years later, four of these economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Korea, and Thailand) and the Philippines found themselves in one of the sharpest economic crises of the last decades. The resulting economic recession shocked the world with its staggering economic and social costs. Over a million people in Thailand and approximately 21 million in Indonesia found themselves impoverished in just a few weeks, as personal savings and assets were devalued to a fraction of their pre-crisis worth. As firms went bankrupt and layoffs ensued, millions lost their jobs. Soaring inflation raised the cost of basic necessities. Strapped fiscal budgets imposed a financial squeeze on social programs, and the absence of adequate...
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...1. Population of Indonesia With a population totaling around 250 million individuals, Indonesia is the fourth largest country with regard to population size. Its ethnic composition is characterized by a wide variety as the country contains hundreds of different ethnic groups and cultures. However, more than half of the population can be classified as belonging to the two main ethnic groups: Javanese (41 percent of the total population) and Sundanese (15 percent of the total population). Both these groups originate from the island of Java, Indonesia's most populous island, which contains almost sixty percent of the country's total population. When the island of Sumatra is included, this figure rises to approximately eighty percent of Indonesia's total population, indicating a significant population concentration in the western part of the country. The most populous province is West Java (with more than 43 million people), while the least populous province is that of West Papua in the far eastern region of Indonesia (having around 761,000 people). Map of Indonesia Five Most Populous Provinces (in millions) Province | Population | 1. West Java | 43.1 | 2. East Java | 37.5 | 3. Central Java | 32.4 | 4. North Sumatra | 13.0 | 5. Banten (Java) | 10.6 | Source: Statistics Indonesia Population Census 2010 This section discusses a number of important aspects regarding Indonesia's demographic composition...
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...Islamic Finance: A Therapy for Healing the Global Financial Crisis Miranti Kartika Dewi 1 *Researcher of Centre for Islamic Economics and Business ** Lecturer of Department of Accounting Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia Ilham Reza Ferdian * Student of Master of Science on Finance Programme Kuliyyah of Economics and Management Sciences International Islamic University Malaysia ** Fellow of PT. Bank Muamalat Indonesia ABSTRACT Global financial crisis which hit many too-big-too-fail countries and financial institution in the world was mainly made happen by debt securitization. Derivative instruments resulted from this process obviously were not backed by real asset. When any party came up with investment on these instruments, the investment would never support the development of real sector economy, instead, it just worsen the situation by creating bubble economic. This condition becomes more harmful when the securitized debts default. This practice is strictly forbidden according to Islamic finance principles. It has inherent risk management tools to prevent the crisis. This paper attempts to examine the root of the financial crisis and find the solution from Islamic finance principles. Keywords: Financial crisis, Derivative, MBS, CDO, CDS, Islamic finance 1 Corresponding author can be contacted by email: miranti_k_dewi@yahoo.com. “The credit and capital markets have grown too rapidly...
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...Asian Crisis • What happened and when did it happen? Asian Crisis that hit pacific Asian in middle 1997, it liked a big earthquake suddenly hit Southern Asia. In Thailand, the July 2, 1997 when it currency had to devalue, the baht, about 20% against the US dollar, as a result of intense pressure in the foreign exchange market. Not only currency speculators but also many Thai residents were trying to sell the baht and buy the US dollar, causing and worsening capital flight out of the country, as the Thai government was running out of its foreign reserves and losing market confidence in maintaining the currency value and financial stability. The interest rates were shot up, as the outflow of short-term capital intensified. Then, the previously inflated stock and real estate markets collapsed and that has led to Thailand's worst recession in the postwar period with sharply rising unemployment and business failures, and the exports cheaper, pressuring other currencies to follow suit. Once the crisis hit Thailand, it has quickly spread to Indonesia. it's rupiah came under vicious attack and had to be devalued by about 90% over the period of just a few months. Interest rates were rising sharply, as capital flight from Indonesia was accelerating a complete collapse in the financial as well as the political system in that country. The Asian Crisis also has brought down South Korea, just like Indonesia and Thailand, has gone almost bankrupt as a nation and is receiving financial...
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...Dzhalil Atakeev Finance 190 Professor Shlyakhov 10/21/2013 Asian Currency Crisis The Asian Currency Crisis started in Thailand. The crisis just reflected structural and policy misinterpretation of the Asian region. Fundamental imbalances triggered the currency and financial crisis in 1997, due to crisis markets overreaction and herding caused the plunge of exchange rates, asset prices and economic conditions. Everything started from Thailand, before 1997 the economy grew was very high in Thailand, it was averaging 9% per year. The rate between USD and Baht was $25 per 1 baht. The 1997 was crucial for Thailand because massive speculators attacked Thai baht. The spark on Asian crisis was when prime minister of Thailand announced that he would not devalue the baht, and government just couldn’t defend baht, which was fixed to several currencies, one of the dominant components was USD. The decrease in economy of Thailand cause massive layoffs in finance, real estate, and construction that resulted many people to return their villages and countries. The Thailand baht was devaluating and by 1998 it reached lowest value of 58 baht over 1 USD. Without any support from foreign reserves Thai government had to float the baht, so that way baht was set on currency market. Since baht was pegged to other currencies crisis spread to another Asian countries. By 2001, Thailand's economy had recovered. The increasing tax revenues allowed the country to balance its budget and repay its debts...
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