Premium Essay

Forecasting Imports Price Growth in China with Many Potentially Relevant Predictors: an Analysis of Forecast Methods

In:

Submitted By huiheise
Words 7204
Pages 29
Jiang 1

Forecasting Imports Price Growth in China With Many Potentially Relevant Predictors: An Analysis of Forecast Methods

Lili Jiang Saint Louis University ECON 698 Professor: Hailong Qian

Jiang 2

Abstract
This paper examines to forecast monthly growth rate of import price in China in the presence of 19 potentially relevant predictors, including international trade related variables, broad economic trend measurement, world CPI and world commodity prices and indices from January 1994 to January 2013. Simulated out-of-sample autoregressive model serves as the benchmark model. Individual autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, simple averaging combination forecast, approximate Bayesian model averaging combination forecast, discount MSFE combination forecast and diffusion indices forecast are built to compete the benchmark model. We found that all combination forecasts outperform benchmark forecast but are not statistically significant by using Clark & West test. The ARDL model with the predictor of China export price and China PPI beat the benchmark model significantly. Finally, resorting to Diebold and Mariano test, we found that the predictor of PPI in China performs best in forecasting the growth rate of import price in China.

Jiang 3

1. Introduction
In the past 20 years, China has undertaken market oriented economic reforms and achieved an average annual growth rate of 9.62%. The expansion of economic activities and growth of household expenditure and further decrease of custom tax level have led to a surge in demand of imported goods. China has become one of the largest importers in the world, which has a total value of imported goods of USD 1818 billion in 2012, average growth as 21% in the past 10 years(Figure 1). The import of iron ore and crude oil pushed the pace of the increase.

Similar Documents

Premium Essay

Cash Flow Forecasting

...Cash Flow Forecasting Essential Capital Markets Books in the series: Cash Flow Forecasting Corporate Valuation Credit Risk Management Finance of International Trade Mergers and Acquisitions Portfolio Management in Practice Introduction to Project Finance Syndicated Lending Cash Flow Forecasting Edited by Andrew Fight A MSTERDAM • BOSTON • HEIDELBERG • LONDON • NEW YORK • OXFORD P ARIS • SAN DIEGO • SAN FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO Butterworth-Heinemann is an imprint of Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann is an imprint of Elsevier Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford OX2 8DP 30 Corporate Drive, Suite 400, Burlington, MA 01803 First published 2006 Copyright © 2006, Andrew Fight. All rights reserved. Note The materials contained in this book remain the copyrighted intellectual property of Andrew Fight, are destined for use in his consulting activities, and are to be clearly identified as copyrighted to him. Andrew Fight has asserted his right under the Copyrights, Designs, and Patents Act 1988, to be identified as author of this work, and confirms that he retains ownership of the intellectual property and rights to use these materials in his training courses and consulting activities. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any material form (including photocopying or storing in any medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this publication) without the written permission...

Words: 70546 - Pages: 283

Premium Essay

International Finance

...Managing for Corporate Value Creation Sixth Edition Chew The New Corporate Finance: Where Theory Meets Practice Third Edition Cornett, Adair, and Nofsinger Finance: Applications and Theory First Edition Cornett, Adair, and Nofsinger Finance: M Book First Edition DeMello Cases in Finance Second Edition Grinblatt (editor) Stephen A. Ross, Mentor: Influence through Generations Grinblatt and Titman Financial Markets and Corporate Strategy Second Edition Higgins Analysis for Financial Management Ninth Edition Kellison Theory of Interest Third Edition Kester, Ruback, and Tufano Case Problems in Finance Twelfth Edition Ross, Westerfield, and Jaffe Corporate Finance Ninth Edition Ross, Westerfield, Jaffe, and Jordan Corporate Finance: Core Principles and Applications Third Edition Ross, Westerfield, and Jordan Essentials of Corporate Finance Seventh Edition Ross, Westerfield, and Jordan Fundamentals of Corporate Finance Ninth Edition Shefrin Behavioral Corporate Finance: Decisions that Create Value First Edition White Financial Analysis with an Electronic...

Words: 186186 - Pages: 745

Premium Essay

Antecedents of Commitment to an Import Supplier

...Antecedents of Commitment to an Import Supplier Submitted by Md. Abu Saleh B. Com (Honours), M. Com, M-Phil Dhaka A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Advertising, Marketing and Public Relations Faculty of Business QUEENSLAND UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Brisbane, Queensland 4000, Australia 2006 Title: Antecedents of Commitment to an Import Supplier Saleh @ 2006 Key Words: 1. Antecedents of commitment 2. Importer’ s commitment 3. Importer supplier relationship 4. Mediating role of trust 5. Cultural similarity 6. Communication 7. Knowledge and experience 8. Supplier’ s opportunism 9. Environmental volatility 10. Transaction-specific investment 11. Supplier’s competencies ii Abstract The concept of commitment has emerged recently in international business literature especially in explaining importer behaviour as a counterpart of the process of internationalisation. Importer commitment often plays a dominant role as one of the major factors influencing relationships in the exporter-importer dyad and facilitates the process of internationalisation by imparting access to the international market. This critical importer and supplier relationship and its animating factors are, however, overlooked and largely neglected in the literature. Accordingly, it is inconclusive as to which factors influence importer commitment and how they influence it. Drawing on the literature, this study strived to investigate...

Words: 40233 - Pages: 161

Premium Essay

Kscnkslv

...have begun to swing on fears that the global recovery may be faltering, while risks of extreme events are rising. Amidst this gloomy landscape, India stands out as a haven of stability and an outpost of opportunity. Its macro-economy is stable, founded on the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and low inflation. Its economic growth is amongst the highest in the world, helped by a reorientation of government spending toward needed public infrastructure. These achievements are remarkable not least because they have been accomplished in the face of global headwinds and a second successive season of poor rainfall. The task now is to sustain them in an even more difficult global environment. This will require careful economic management. As regards monetary and liquidity policy, the benign outlook for inflation, widening output gaps, the uncertainty about the growth outlook and the over-indebtedness of the corporate sector all imply that there is room for easing. Fiscal consolidation continues to be vital, and will need to maintain credibility and reduce debt, in an uncertain global environment, while sustaining growth. On the government’s “reformto-transform” agenda, a series of measures, each incremental but collectively meaningful have been enacted. There have also been some disappointments— especially the Goods and Services Tax—which need to be retrieved going forward. Accelerated structural reforms at the Centre, the dynamism of competitive federalism...

Words: 64752 - Pages: 260

Premium Essay

Super Project

...Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org) OLIN BUSINESS SCHOOL Summer 2015 Advanced Corporate Finance IIIFrontiers of Valuation B62 FIN 534C Professor Todd Milbourn B62 MGT 534C Advanced Corporate Finance III – Frontiers of Valuation Summer 2015 Professor Todd Milbourn The Olin Business School Table of Contents 1. Valmont Industries HBP Case # UVA-F-1191 ............................................................................... 1 2. Super Project HBP Case # 9-112-034 ........................................................................................... 21 3. Calaveras Vineyards HBP Case # UVA-F-1094 ........................................................................... 37 4. Paginas Amarelas HBP Case # UVA-F-1210 ............................................................................... 63 5. Using Crystal Ball HBP Case # UVA-QA-0561 .......................................................................... 89 6. Valuation in Emerging Markets HBP Case # UVA-F-1455 ......................................................... 95 7. Project Valuation in Emerging Markets HBP Case # 9-702-077 ............................................... 113 8. Valuing Companies in Corporate Restructurings HBP Case # 9-201-073 ................................. 131 UVA-F-1191 Rev. Feb. 1, 2011 VALMONT INDUSTRI V IES, INC. Forty years ago, we made our fi F m irst center p pivot irriga ation system It was m. es ssentially a long steel pipe...

Words: 49316 - Pages: 198

Premium Essay

Startegic Human Resource Management: Employee Resourcing

...1.0 INTRODUCTION What is Strategic Human Resource Management (SHRM)? According to the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (2015), strategic human resource management (strategic HRM, or SHRM) is an approach to managing human resources that supports long-term business goals and outcomes with a strategic framework. The approach emphases on longer-term people issues, matching resources to future needs as well as macro-concerns about structure, quality, culture, values and commitment. It is necessarily dependent on the evolving nature of work itself. As mentioned by Stone (2013), because human resource management (HRM) seeks to strategically integrate the interests of an organisation and its employees, it is much more than a set of activities relating to the coordination of an organisation’s human resources. HRM is a major contributor to the success of an enterprise because it is in a key position ‘to affect customers, business results and ultimately shareholder value’. Stated by Gratton (2000), ‘The new sources of sustainable competitive advantage available to organisations have people at the centre – their creativity and talent, their inspirations and hopes, their dreams and excitement. The companies that flourish in this decade will do so because they are able to provide meaning and purpose, a context and frame that encourages individual potential to flourish and grow’. Stone (2013) mentioned that HRM is either part of the problem or part of the solution in...

Words: 16825 - Pages: 68

Premium Essay

Pmda Handbook New Product Developme

...THE PDMA HANDBOOK OF NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT T HIRD E DITION Kenneth B. Kahn, Editor Associate Editors: Sally Evans Kay Rebecca J. Slotegraaf Steve Uban JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC. Cover image: © Les Cunliffe/iStockphoto Cover design: Elizabeth Brooks This book is printed on acid-free paper. Copyright © 2013 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey Published simultaneously in Canada No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 7486008, or online at www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with the respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of...

Words: 165678 - Pages: 663

Premium Essay

Ggggggg

...reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media springeronline.com ° Springer Berlin ´ Heidelberg 2006 Printed in Germany The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Hardcover-Design: Design & Production, Heidelberg SPIN 11543282 43/3153-5 4 3 2 1 0 ± Printed on acid-free paper Foreword Hans-Joachim Körber Chief Executive Officer of METRO AG In general, retailing is perceived as a...

Words: 158632 - Pages: 635

Premium Essay

Management

...PRINCIPLES OF MANAGEMENT Table of Contents Ch# Title Page 1 Historical overview of Management ……………………………………………………… 1 2 Management and Managers ………………………………………………………………. 5 3 Managerial Roles in Organizations ……………………………………………………….. 7 4 Managerial Functions i.e. POLCA ………………………………………………………... 9 5 Managerial Levels and Skills ……………………………………………………………… 11 6 Management Ideas: Yesterday and Today ………………………………………………... 14 7 Classical View of Management (Scientific and Bureaucratic)……………………………… 16 8 Administrative View of Management ……………………………………………………. 19 9 Behavioral Theories of Management 20 10 Quantitative, Contemporary and Emerging Views of Management 23 11 System’s View of Management and Organization 25 12 Analyzing Organizational Environment and Understanding Organizational Culture …….. 29 13 21st Century Management Trends………………………………………………………… 32 14 Understanding Global Environment: WTO and SAARC ………………………………… 36 15 Decision Making and Decision Taking …………………………………………………… 39 16 Rational Decision Making ………………………………………………………………... 41 17 Nature and Types of Managerial Decisions ……………………………………………… 43 18 Non Rational Decision Making ………………………………………………………….. 45 19 Group Decision Making and Creativity ………………………………………………….. 47 20 Planning and Decision Aids-I …………………………………………………………… 50 21 Planning and Decision Aids-II …………………………………………………………… 53 22 Planning: Functions & Benefits ………………………………………………………….. 56 23 Planning Process and Goals Levels ………………………………………………………...

Words: 51623 - Pages: 207

Premium Essay

Environmental Analysis

...VIEW Strategic Human Resource Management Taken from: Strategic Human Resource Management, Second Edition by Charles R. Greer Copyright © 2001, 1995 by Prentice-Hall, Inc. A Pearson Education Company Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 Compilation Copyright © 2003 by Pearson Custom Publishing All rights reserved. This copyright covers material written expressly for this volume by the editor/s as well as the compilation itself. It does not cover the individual selections herein that first appeared elsewhere. ii Permission to reprint these has been obtained by Pearson Custom Publishing for this edition only. Further reproduction by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, must be arranged with the individual copyright holders noted. This special edition published in cooperation with Pearson Custom Publishing. Printed in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Please visit our web site at www.pearsoncustom.com ISBN 0–536–72690–6 BA 996748 PEARSON CUSTOM PUBLISHING 75 Arlington Street, Suite 300 Boston, MA 02116 A Pearson Education Company iii iv Table of Contents SECTION ONE ................................................................. 1 An Investment Perspective and Human Resources .... 2 HUMAN RESOURCE INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS ...6 INVESTMENTS IN TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT ..... 14 INVESTMENT PRACTICES FOR IMPROVED RETENTION ..................

Words: 132738 - Pages: 531

Free Essay

Earning Quality

...out that the ‘‘quality’’ of earnings is a function of the firm’s fundamental performance. The contribution of a firm’s fundamental performance to its earnings quality is suggested as one area for future work. & 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: G31 M40 M41 Keywords: Earnings quality Earnings management Review Survey 1. Introduction Statement of Financial Accounting Concepts No. 1 (SFAC No. 1) states that ‘‘Financial reporting should provide information about an enterprise’s financial performance during a period.’’ Borrowing language from SFAC No. 1, we define earnings quality as follows: Higher quality earnings provide more information about the features of a firm’s financial performance that are relevant to a specific decision made by a specific...

Words: 58742 - Pages: 235

Premium Essay

Consumer Behavior

...to a buyer’s expectations. Demands-human wants that are backed by buying power Exchange-is the act of obtaining a desired object from someone by offering something in return Internet-a vast public web of computer networks that connect users of all types all around the world to each other and to an amazingly large “information repository’ Market-is the set of actual and potential buyers of a product Marketing-the process by which companies create value for customers and build strong customer relationships in order to capture value from customers in return Marketing Concept-holds that achieving organizational goals depends on knowing the needs and wants of target markets and building profitable relationships with them Marketing Myopia-many sellers make the mistake of paying more attention to the specific products they offer than to the benefits and experiences produced by these products Market Offering-some combination of products, services, information, or experiences offered to a market to satisfy a need or want Needs-states of felt deprivation Partner Relationship Management-working...

Words: 50597 - Pages: 203

Premium Essay

Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems

...SUGGESTED ANSWERS AND SOLUTIONS TO END-OF-CHAPTER QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1. Globalization and the Multinational Firm Suggested Answers to End-of-Chapter Questions 3 2. International Monetary System Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems 12 3. Balance of Payments Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems 17 4. The Market for Foreign Exchange Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems 23 5. International Parity Relationships Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems 33 6. International Banking Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems 40 7. International Bond Markets Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems 50 8. International Equity Markets Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems 56 9. Futures and Options on Foreign Exchange Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems 62 10. Currency and Interest Rate Swaps Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems 70 11. International Portfolio Investments Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems 78 12. Management of Economic Exposure Suggested Answers and Solutions to End-of-Chapter Questions and Problems 87 13. Management...

Words: 50358 - Pages: 202

Premium Essay

Jpmorgan Matrix Structure

...managing NOW! Gary Dessler Florida International University Jean Phillips Rutgers University Houghton Mifflin Company Boston New York To Samantha Vice President, Executive Publisher: George Hoffman Executive Sponsoring Editor: Lisé Johnson Senior Marketing Manager: Nicole Hamm Development Editor: Julia Perez Cover Design Manager: Anne S. Katzeff Senior Photo Editor: Jennifer Meyer Dare Senior Project Editor: Nancy Blodget Editorial Assistant: Jill Clark Art and Design Manager: Jill Haber Senior Composition Buyer: Chuck Dutton Cover photo credits Main image: © Bryan F. Peterson/CORBIS Lower left image: © Stockbyte/Getty Images Lower right image: © David Oliver/Getty Images Additional photo credits are listed on page 516. Copyright © 2008 by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Houghton Mifflin Company unless such copying is expressly permitted by federal copyright law. Address inquiries to College Permissions, Houghton Mifflin Company, 222 Berkeley Street, Boston, MA 02116-3764. Printed in the U.S.A. Library of Congress Control Number: 2007924351 Instructor’s exam copy : ISBN-13: 978-0-618-83347-4 ISBN-10: 0-618-83347-1 For orders, use student text ISBNs: ISBN-13: 978-0-618-74163-2 ISBN-10: 0-618-74163-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7...

Words: 96057 - Pages: 385

Free Essay

International Business

...This text was adapted by The Saylor Foundation under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 License without attribution as requested by the work’s original creator or licensee. Organization The overarching logic of the book is intuitive—organized around answers to the what, where, why, and how of international business. WHAT? Section one introduces what is international business and who has an interest in it. Students will sift through the globalization debate and understanding the impact of ethics on global businesses. Additionally, students will explore the evolution of international trade from past to present, with a focus on how firms and professionals can better understand today’s complex global business arena by understanding the impact of political and legal factors. The section concludes with a chapter on understanding how cultures are defined and the impact on business interactions and practices with tangible tips for negotiating across cultures. WHERE? Section two develops student knowledge about key facets of the global business environment and the key elements of trade and cooperation between nations and global organizations. Today, with increasing numbers of companies of all sizes operating internationally, no business or country can remain an island. Rather, the interconnections between countries, businesses, and institutions are inextricable. Even how we define the world is changing. No longer classified into simple and neat...

Words: 239764 - Pages: 960