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Forecasting Model

In: Business and Management

Submitted By egarcia12
Words 390
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The business development of the construction industry depends not only on the ability to optimize operations within industry, adapt to external conditions, but also on the country's economic development, the situation in the market.
The Manpower forecasting model.

The Estimated Manpower Forecast Model is designed to capture the future labour requirements of the engineering construction industry by key sectors.
Manpower is undoubtedly a valuable asset upon which the construction industry depends. However, rapid changes of the economy, working arrangements, and technology in construction advocate reliable estimations of manpower demand to lessen future skills imbalance. The aim of this research is to develop advanced manpower demand forecasting models, at both project and industry levels, to facilitate manpower planning for the construction industry.
At the project level, statistical models for forecasting the demand of labour demand for a construction project were developed using multiple regression analysis. Results reveal that project cost and project type play an important role in determining the project labour requirements. The forecasting models could serve as practical tools for contractors and government to predict the labour requirements and number of jobs created at an early outset, thus enabling proper human resources planning and budgeting. At the industry level, co-integration analysis was applied to develop a long-term relationship between aggregate construction manpower demand and relevant variables.It was proved that the demand and the associated economic factors including construction output, wage, material price and interest rate are cointegrated. Subsequently, a vector error correction model incorporating short-run dynamics was developed for forecasting purposes. Upon completion of the aggregate model, occupational share manpower demand

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