...Application of foresight in corporations 12th Session of the UNIDO General Conference EUR and NIS Regional Round Table Vienna, 5 December 2007 Dr. Frank Ruff Daimler AG Society and Technology Research Group Berlin, Palo Alto, Kyoto Agenda A Why Corporate Foresight? B A closer look at Corporate Foresight C Implications for UNIDO D Q & A, Discussion UNIDO 5 December 2007 / Dr. Frank Ruff 2 Why Corporate Foresight? History of Future Studies/Foresight Foresight embedded in enterprises First Think Tanks in enterprises (e.g. Shell, Toyota, Daimler-Benz) Corporate Foresight: Innovation and Technology Analysis Establishment of new (e.g. Daimler-Benz, variants and diffusion Siemens, Philips) of concepts of future studies and analysis Consumer and marketing-oriented trend research Future Consulting (e.g. Z_Punkt) Emergence of systematic resp. scientific future studies Journalists/Entrepreneurs/Expert-Networks/Consulting Warning future studies „Doom-Saying“ (e.g. Club of Rome, Robert Jungk) Economic and political future studies (e.g. Faith Popcorn, (e.g. Alvin Toffler, Trendbüro, John Naisbitt, Dan Coates, PROGNOS) Matthias Horx) „Premodern future view“ Delphic oracle Spiritual and religious foresight Outsider (e.g. Nostredamus) State-run/scientific/supranational institutions Military futurologic research MIT) Technology assessment Economic, political, Science and Technology resource-oriented (e.g. RAND Corporation...
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...At this fork in life, I chose --------------, instead of ------------. Life is all about making choices. Making the right choice at the right time is very important. However, no one knows whether the choice they made was the right one. Nevertheless, living with the choice you made and dealing with it, is more important than being right or wrong. Since I began my O-levels, I had always heard how “cool” it is to get into LUMS. Independence, away from home, doing whatever you want, enjoying life were just some of the things I had heard from friends that got into LUMS. In A-levels, my senior LUMS friends would brag about the amazing badminton and tennis courts they have there and how they can go and play there whenever they want, since they knew my school courts were usually closed. Eventually, I got interested in getting admission into LUMS and dreamt of “enjoying” life the way they did. Working hard to write the perfect essay for their admission form and working harder than ever to get into LUMS, I was still very much surprised when I got my acceptance letter. Jumping with joy and shedding tears of happiness and hugging the letter like it was a child, something dawned upon me: I have to go for Hajj this September. My exciting mood got ruined because I couldn’t possibly miss Hajj for LUMS or can I? LUMS was a dream that I couldn’t possibly think of letting go this easily, especially when I had worked so hard to fulfill it. But then Hajj was important too. I was stuck somewhere...
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...Essay of foresight At this fork in life, I chose --------------, instead of ------------. Life is all about making choices. Making the right choice at the right time is very important. However, no one knows whether the choice they made was the right one. Nevertheless, living with the choice you made and dealing with it, is more important than being right or wrong. Since I began my O-levels, I had always heard how “cool” it is to get into LUMS. Independence, away from home, doing whatever you want, enjoying life were just some of the things I had heard from friends that got into LUMS. In A-levels, my senior LUMS friends would brag about the amazing badminton and tennis courts they have there and how they can go and play there whenever they want, since they knew my school courts were usually closed. Eventually, I got interested in getting admission into LUMS and dreamt of “enjoying” life the way they did. Working hard to write the perfect essay for their admission form and working harder than ever to get into LUMS, I was still very much surprised when I got my acceptance letter. Jumping with joy and shedding tears of happiness and hugging the letter like it was a child, something dawned upon me: I have to go for Hajj this September. My exciting mood got ruined because I couldn’t possibly miss Hajj for LUMS or can I? LUMS was a dream that I couldn’t possibly think of letting go this easily, especially when I had worked so hard to fulfill it. But then Hajj was important too...
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...Foresight Energy Partners LP Company Description Foresight Energy Partners perceives a bright future in coal mining. Formed in 2012, Foresight Energy owns and operates four underground coal mining complexes in the Illinois Basin. Its complexes, which include the Williamson, Sugar Camp, Hillsboro, and Macoupin, have a combined production capacity of up to 65 million tons of high Btu coal per year and contain an estimated 3 billion tons of coal reserves. The company sells its mined coal to primarily US and overseas electric utilities and industrial companies. Foresight Energy was formed in early 2012; it filed to go public a short time after its formation. The Company is a low cost producer of high quality thermal coal with expertise in operating and developing highly productive underground mines in the Illinois Basin. It has invested over $1.5 billion in four mining complexes with long reserve lives which it believes will provide it with significant sustainable free cash flow. The company have significant near-term and long-term growth opportunities through our approximately 3 billion tons of coal reserves. It believes its first operation, Williamson, was the most productive underground coal mine in the United States for the fourth quarter of 2011 on a clean tons produced per man hour basis. Its leading productivity translates into low costs, and it believes it is the lowest cost underground coal producer in the United States at $19.41 per ton in 2010. It have developed...
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...Managing Foresight for Innovation in Large Firms Lina Bakker & Linn Johansson Summary Corporate foresight has the potential to create competitive advantage by providing strategic orientation and supporting future insights. As humans we apply foresight every day by anticipating the future and preparing for it. Yet, in a corporate context the concept has been much less explored. There is a lack of research covering how to organise for foresight, particularly in an innovation setting. The purpose of this study was therefore to examine how large companies can manage foresight. This was investigated in a qualitative research with the means of multiple case studies and expert consultation. The findings of this study show that managing and organising for foresight in large firms can be done on the basis of two approaches, formal or informal. This is based on theory and has been extended and modified in this study. The formal approach builds on structure and processes whereas the informal approach is based on the corporate culture. Which approach is more suitable depends on the existing structures and culture in place, as well as the desired outcome of foresight. 1 Introduction Today’s business environment is defined by rapidly changing technology and intense competition, in which innovation has become a critical success factor to sustain competitive advantage. More and more companies are searching for strategic orientation and feel the need to support more future insights to...
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...Normality of the future: Trend diagnosis for strategic foresight (Liebl 2010) Table of contents 1. Summary of the article 3 2. Analysis of the strength and weakness of the argument 5 2.1 Strengths 5 2.2 Weakness 6 3. Implications for the top management 7 4. Conclusion 8 Appendix A 10 Appendix B 11 1. Summary of the article “In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things” (Musashi 2009). * This article focuses on trend diagnosis for strategic foresight in its entirety. The author scrutinizes that although trend is an imperative concept in the strategic issue management, the interpretation of trend in strategic foresight is ambiguous. This paper conceptualizes, from a strategic point of view, trend as an innovation (socio-cultural) and elaborate the implications with respect to strategic issue diagnosis. (Liebl 2010) * * * * * The figure above (Liebl 2010) depicts an elaborate framework for conceptualizing trends. The strategic trend diagnosis has to deal with two different aspects of innovation: invention and diffusion. The invention aspect of a trend is identifying “The New” results from a transgression of contextual boundaries whereas the diffusion is a process of normalization (Normality and Abnormality) – i.e., a new socio-cultural practice becomes a social convention and...
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...companies in order to survive and grow. Foresight is about thinking, debating and shaping the future and thus these foresight activities play a crucial role in today’s decision making process within the organization which would influence the future survival, growth and success of the corporate.(Daheim, C & Uerz G. 2006) Corporate foresight has been defined as an ability that includes any structural or cultural element that enables the company to detect discontinuous change early, interpret the consequences for the company, and formulate effective responses to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company (Rene Rohrbeck, 2011) In particular, corporate foresight activities are an increasingly important tool to make better long-term decisions, support innovation activities, strategic planning by identifying the emerging technologies and trends which would create the future scenarios. In brief, corporate foresight can be expected to be a mechanism that enables companies to profit from fundamental change. Today, when we critically evaluate the success of the foresight activities planned and executed in the past we are generally answering the question to learn “ how accurate have been in fore sighting the change” rather than trying to understand if this foresight activity has added any value to the growth or success of the corporate. Consequently, in this study the author sheds light on the value creation from corporate-foresight activities and methods and practices used...
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...The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” Article Summary In the context of the global financial crisis and the turbulence that this has brought to the world economy and therefore to organisations, the article “The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” by Gill Ringland published in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social change volume 77 (9) aims to persuade the reader on the need for strategic foresight over the next decade and what role scenarios can play within strategy foresight activities in organisations (Ringland, 2010). The author predicts that organisations in the west will experience a period of great change and that they are mostly ill-prepared to deal with the rate or the enormity of this change. Ringland believes that conventional business planning will need to change and suggests the need to develop a systematic review of organisational practices that will lead to strategic foresight. This will ensure that organisations are in a position to cope and survive changes in their external environment. Ringland begins by pointing out that the current position of the world economy shows that business and government have a significant debt burden that will take years to pay back especially in the west. In an environment of unemployment, reduced consumer spending and debt repayment, wealthy nations will recover slower than developing nations. There is also a shift in international competitiveness due to changes in labour skills and costs as well as technological...
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...1. Summary: Exploring value creation from the corporate foresight activity The article Exploring value creation from the corporate foresight activity explains in details, both technical and the human aspect, the value creation from the future research. As the future research involves a monitory as well the human capital the return on investment is an important debate. While discussing the return on investment the time line is also a concern that when the return of the present investment would be physically enjoyable. The paper starts with a brilliant introduction of the thesis statement and the author has argued the most common question “Have the predictions been accurate? ‘With the question ‘‘did our futures research create any value?’’ .Further in the paper the author have supported his argument with a literature review and empirical investigation. Based on the literature review the author have found out three main group of potential value creations (Rohrbeck 2011) • Trigger organizational responses, including identifying relevant external change, start new innovation initiatives and challenge innovation development to ensure state-of-the-art • Start and facilitate strategic discussions to enable strategic change, including challenge and change existing mental models, moderate strategic discussions, promote participation and support breaking away from path dependency • Identify and support acquisition of needed strategic resources, including identify resources, decide on...
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...probability of an event while ignoring outcome data; that is, when they were asked to retrieve their foresight state-of-mind. Most research, including Fischhoffs, has indicated that hindsight judges cannot accurately recall foresight knowledge. A study by Hasher, Attig, and Alba (1981), however, demonstrated that initial foresight knowledge was not erased from memory, it was simply more difficult to retrieve. Given that foresight knowledge seems to be more difficult to retrieve once outcome knowledge has been provided and that, in many cases, foresight knowledge may actually conflict with hindsight knowledge, one method suggested by Fischhoff (1975) to assimilate outcome data makes use of heuristics as proposed by Tversky and Kahneman (1973, 1974). Of particular relevance to our study, Fischhoff argued: THE HINDSIGHT BIAS 441 A second heuristic leads judges to evaluate an outcome's likelihood by the relative "availability" of scenarios leading to its occurrence and nonoccurrence. The judge who knows what happened, and has adjusted his perceptions in the light of that knowledge, may well find it difficult to imagine how things could have turned out otherwise. (1975, p. 298) Our purpose was to investigate the role of the availability heuristic with regard to outcome knowledge. If hindsight knowledge facilitates the use of heuristics because it inhibits access to the foresight state-of-mind as suggested by Fischhoff (1975), then accompanying biases or distortion in probability...
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...Write a mini-essay where you consider the Leon’s observation that Hamlet’s feelings of entrapment render him incapable to act with wisdom and foresight. Leon’s observation regarding Hamlet’s in ability to act with wisdom and foresight is valid. On one hand, Hamlet is a contemplative character who acts based on a strict moral code which is often excessive and uncalled for. On the other hand, Hamlet is an indecisive person by nature and tends to contemplate his every action to the point where it seems unreasonable to the readers of Hamlet. As a result, when tasked to avenge his father’s death, Hamlet struggles to cope. Hamlet is therefore caught between his own conscience and the honour of his father’s avengement. Hamlet’s inability to act with wisdom and foresight stems from his failure to choose which path to follow: the path his conscience takes him on or the path of honourable avengement. Being a Protestant, educated at the University of Wittenberg, Hamlet is guided by the laws of God and hence, refuses to act unless he can be sure that his actions align themselves with the moral values which exist in his conscience. This is epitomised by Hamlet’s refusal to kill King Claudius while in prayer citing his desire to end Claudius’ life at a time when his “…soul may be damned and black… As hell whereto it goes” (3.3.94-95) as his reason. Killing Claudius while in prayer does not assimilate within Hamlet’s Protestant values because the King Hamlet was not given the option...
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...ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGIES NEW TECHNOLOGIES 244-465-AB C-0017 SUSTAINABILITY (with Jim Banks) Sustainability is the capacity to endure, to last, and to make conscious decisions that will allow for the well being of the future. Mr. Jim Banks, a senior employee at Bombardier Canada, came to John Abbott College to lead a talk about the role that bombardier plays in Canada. He also came to speak about issues with fossil fuels and its consumption, and our sustainability; how we are now making important decisions that will try to ensure a bright and healthy future for us and our planet. He began his presentation by first talking about himself. He started out as a technician, much like us students. He was given the chance to work with NASA as a draftsman, eventually designing some electronic enclosures for the international space station. Bombardier is the Canadian leader in transportation. They are also the third largest civil aircraft manufacturers in the world. Their head office is in Montreal, and they also employ tens of thousands of employees in all corners of the globe. Bombardier is a leader in design and production of smaller business jets, regional jets, turboprops, and amphibious planes. Bombardier also produces trains and other land transport. Jim Banks emphasized to us that when designing any type of transportation; its environmental impacts and sustainability are of utmost importance. Bombardier is known for its history of innovation. In the last twenty-one...
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...Fear and Foresight are Driven by Past Experiences By looking at the novel Three Day Road by Joseph Boyden, one can see that fear and foresight affect the way one commits to resolving the fear by thinking the problem out, numbing the fear and the ability to make decisions, and instinctively acting upon those fears and the decisions made. Fear is driven by the experiences that humans have in their life times and foresight of what is to come makes one makes decisions based on those past experiences. Boyden develops on the idea that instincts can drive decisions and help one survive the future. The characters Elijah and Xavier both had very good instincts that saved their lives more than once. Xavier had better instincts than Elijah because...
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...their demise. Friar Lawrence's lack of responsibility and foresight contributed significantly to the deaths of Romeo and Juliet. Being the individual to marry them, and devise ill fated plans, he was imprudent because he did not predict that such a situation would have tragic results. His inability to communicate between all involved severely impacted the...
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...The single most important aspect that a college student can pursue is self-image. Self-image can be defined as the idea one has of one’s abilities, appearance and personality. If someone perceives themselves in a positive manner, people will be more likely to see that individual as a positive, capable person who is able to achieve anything that they put their mind to. Roth gives a strategy called guided fantasy that can be associated to a confident self- image. Roth defines guided fantasy as a tool to assist who we really are by closing our eyes and creating a world of fantasy in our minds. Guided fantasy that develops foresight, promotes awareness, and establishes mindfulness is that most significant aspect of self-image a student can have in their life. Guided fantasy develops foresight that can positively change a person’s self-image. “The way the world might turn out tomorrow that helps one recognize changing aspects of the present environment. Futures scenario planning is about making choices today with an understanding of how they might turn out” (Lloyd). Creating an imaginative plan of the future helps an individual prepare and be proactive about...
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