. Introduction
If one asks what is really new after the end of the so-called Cold War, one has to accept that instead of new, modern order concepts in secur ity policy theories there is much inertia, which extends the life of old order concepts, and still also a prevailing thinking in categories of East-
West and North-South confrontation. Today, this certainly happens in categories which are rather free from ideologies, but still according to ge opolitical perceptions of balances and counter- balances. And one must not forget that the main opponents in the Cold War, the U.S.A. and
Russia, still maintain their strategic nuclear ar senals and, therefore, an antagonistic base component in their relations.
Beyond that it is also necessary to develop courage for new scenarios, for new thinking, indeed perhaps for something like ‘mind games’ - in an essay - based, of course, on perceptions from the past and the present. Extrapolations are indeed permitted when dealing with future scenarios. Also, potential constellations have to be aimed at which guide beyond historic reflections or so-called current analyses. Therefore, the reader will occasionally also come across subjunctives in this essay. The future is open
; occasionally, we may also encircle it with
‘unbrushed thinking’.
Is the East-West conflict really over? Or has it only declined in importance because of a much weaker Russia - compared with the Soviet Union - , her concentration in a limited area compared with its former global dimension, and the change from a comprehensive confrontation
(ideological, political, economic and military) to a co mpetition for zones of influence. If this is so
- and there is no reason to deny the fact that th ere still exists a confrontational situation between the ‘West’ and Russia - , then the basis for it mu st be geopolitical