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Economic Research

Economic Briefing
Germany: Analysts’ concerns are growing
The ZEW Index for Germany tumbled again in October. Poorer economic data and a far from solved debt crisis are making analysts more skeptical about the future. How companies view the situation is more important though. This will be revealed by the Ifo business climate on Friday, which is also set to fall again. Financial analysts give an increasingly negative assessment of the outlook for the German economy. The ZEW index for the economic expectations in Germany dropped again in October. At -48.3, it came in slightly below expectations (Commerzbank forecast and consensus: -45.0). Well over half of the analysts surveyed meanwhile believe that the economic situation in Germany will deteriorate in the next six months. That said, Germany is the only country for which the index for the current situation is still clearly in positive territory, at 38.4. For the euro zone and the other surveyed countries, the figure is already in deep negative territory. These figures do not really bring much news; the fact that analysts have reduced their growth estimates again for next year – meaning they assess the outlook less favourably – is already in the newspapers. Furthermore, a look at the markets shows that the sovereign debt crisis is causing unrest on the financial markets (and therefore among the analysts working in this sector). What is more surprising is that 8% of those asked still anticipate an improvement in the economic situation. Although the ZEW has been quite a reliable leading indicator in the past, it is not possible to defer from it just how sharply the economy is weakening at present. More insight will be given by the Ifo business climate due for publication on Friday, as it will show how businesses view the current situation and whether order intake has weakened further recently. We expect business expectations especially to drop further and therefore follow the ZEW downwards.

18 October 2011

Germany: Analysts increasingly pessimistic, businesses too?
ZEW index, Ifo business expectations, industrial sector
115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 ZEW (rhs) 2011 100 75 50 25 0 -25 -50 -75 -100

Ifo expecations (lhs)
Sources: ZEW, Global Insight, Commerzbank Research

Author: Dr. Ralph Solveen
+49 69 136 22322 ralph.solveen@commerzbank.com

ZEW survey of financial experts
Indicator Expectations Current Situation Oct 11 -48.3 38.4 Forecasts CB -45.0 – -45.0 40.0 Sep 11 -37.6 53.5 Aug 11 -15.1 90.6 Jul 11 3.1 91.5

Chief Economist Dr Jörg Krämer
+49 69 136 23650 joerg.kraemer@commerzbank.com

Sources: Global Insight, Commerzbank Research research.commerzbank.com

For important disclosure information please see page 2

Economics Briefing

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18 October 2011

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