Premium Essay

Global Construction Report

In:

Submitted By chatbite
Words 455
Pages 2
Global Sector Report
Euler
Hermes
Economic
Research

CONSTRUCTION

Sector Risk Rating

What to Watch?
 Stronger than expected economic struggles in emerging markets, markedly for commodity exporters, leading to declining public investments
 Increasing interest rates weighing on firms’ capacity to repay debts and household purchasing decisions
 Rebound in public investment may support some infrastructure projects in Europe and
China

Structural growth will be shaped by a mix of divergent country trends
Growth in the construction sector is set to remain slow with a +2.8% increase this year after +2.4% in
2015. Moreover it currently faces a major shift: production in emerging markets will grow in 2016 by only +3.4% vs. +7% over the last 10 years. Yet it will rebound in advanced economies with +2.2% vs.
-0.7%.

Construction Gross Output (real USD)
6 000
5 000
4 000

Structural weaknesses coupled with lasting price pressures mean the sector is still risky with a fairly negative outlook in most countries monitored.
The sector remains mainly composed of small firms with very high leverage ratios, a weakness highlighted by longer payment terms compared to other sectors.
More complexity is added into the mix by the effects of strong cyclicality and cross-country differences.
Recovery in the UK has reached a plateau, while growth is negatively impacted in oil exporting countries as low oil prices put brakes on infrastructure investments. Prospects appear brighter in the Nordics – markedly Norway – and the
United States.
There is also marked heterogeneity in housing prices trends. Some bubbles keep on inflating
(China) while others are slowly deflating (France).

3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Advanced Economies

Sources: Oxford Economics, Euler Hermes

2011

2012

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