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Who Wants to Be a Millionaire: Week 1 NFL GPP Picks

If you are reading this article, I think it is fair to assume that you are a fan of playing fantasy football in some regard. It’s a fantastic game that has become a hobby for football fans of all ages. There is a copious amount of ways to make playing fantasy football even more fun than it already is, but there are no methods better than introducing money. And thanks to DFS, money is aplenty this football season. DraftKings and FanDuel are both making millionaires out of players in week 1 of this NFL season, and it’s my job here to help you become one of those players. Cash games are great, and probably the smarter method of building a bankroll, but that’s not what we’re here to do. This is for those of you who want to go for it all, like I do. These picks are for those of you trying to turn $20 into $2 million (or $25 into $1 million). They are picks that I feel will have low ownership percentages, high scores, and therefore the potential to give you a greater chance at becoming a millionaire without the help of Regis Philbin.

Quarterback:

Jay Cutler (DK - $6,800; FD - $7,900) - I’m going to start my picks off with some serious stuff, so brace yourself… The Chicago Bears are going to lose week 1 against the Green Bay Packers. I know, riveting stuff. Joking aside, the Bears are very likely going to fall to the Packers as they so often do, and Aaron Rodgers is going to be really good. That means one obvious certainty: Jay Cutler is going to have to throw the ball a whole lot. Not very many people like Mr. Cutler, nor do I. He’s not a winner and I am convinced he never will be. But that doesn’t matter in DFS, which is why he is a perfect GPP option in week 1. Cutler, despite all the negatives, can throw the football pretty damn well. When he’s on fire, he can put up points with the Rodgers and the Manning’s of the league. Quietly, Cutler put up his best season as a pro in 2014 despite Marshall and Jeffery dealing with injuries for much of the season. People don’t like Jay Cutler and the Packers are the much better NFL team, but these two ideas are what is going to drive his ownership percentages down and give you a potentially massive edge if Cutler can have one of those big games he’s more than capable of.

Andy Dalton (DK - $6,100; FD - $7,100) – Staying right in line with my last pick, here’s another guy that seems to be on the wrong side of most jokes and scrutiny. Another guy who seems destined for being known as someone who just is not a winner, Dalton has always choked when Cincy has needed him most. I don’t see that being the case to open the season, however. He’s facing Oakland which is nice, but that isn’t the reason I think he makes a good GPP option in week 1. I think he’s a perfect option due to recency bias; Dalton was awful last year and that’s what players will remember when creating lineups for the next month. With that said, the amount of injuries that Dalton’s skill players suffered last season cannot be ignored. AJ Green was banged up, Marvin Jones didn’t play, and Giovani Bernard missed time as well. Mohamed Sanu was Dalton’s #1 target for much of last season, which is not good (to keep it tactful). Now Dalton gets all of these weapons back at full health, as well as another year under Jeremy Hill’s belt and an improved defense with Geno Atkins healthy again. I think there will be way too many overlooking these facts when considering Dalton as their QB and consequently keep his ownership down despite a juicy matchup.

Honorable Mention – Derek Carr (DK - $6,100; FD - $6,300)

Running Back:

Marshawn Lynch (DK - $7,300; FD - $8,600) – For whatever reason, Marshawn Lynch always seems to be the lone man left out when people talk about the truly elite. It’s always because, “he’s too old” or “he’s taken too much of a beating”; but in reality, Marshawn has been the most consistent back in the NFL since his arrival in the Pacific Northwest. I expect this notion to hold true in week 1. I’ll preface my argument for taking Beast Mode by saying that the matchup is not ideal, but that’s all the more reason for his ownership to stay lower than it should be. After the tragedy that took place at the end of last season’s Super Bowl, I believe that there will be a premium put on getting Marshawn touches. All the hype is surrounding the arrival of Jimmy Graham with his redzone prowess (and for good reason), but not much seems to be made about how this domination in the redzone by Graham will open up the goal line for Beast Mode. This leads me to believe that there’s a good opportunity for Lynch to open up the 2015-2016 season with a multi-touchdown performance at an ownership far too low in the big tournaments, similar to how he started his 2014-2015 season against Green Bay (110 yards and 2 scores).

Reggie Bush (DK - $3,900; FD - $5,500) – It’s allllllllll about Carlos Hyde these days, isn’t it? First off, I will concede that Hyde is ultra talented and could potentially blow up into a top NFL running back, but he’s playing for a team that could end up being a bottom feeder this season. The 49ers have essentially retired themselves out of contention for the foreseeable future. The 49ers will give up a lot of points this season and that bodes well for the former USC standout more than it helps Hyde. Since they’ll be playing from behind more often than not, a receiver out of the backfield (Bush) will become a lot more valuable than your traditional three-down back (Hyde). So while everyone rides the Hyde bandwagon to start the season, Bush will go overlooked in the big tournaments despite having the same, if not more, amount of upside. While everyone else is beating around the Bush, we’re going to be taking home the big bucks by using the Bush.

Honorable Mention – David Cobb (DK - $3,400; FD - $5,400)

Wide Receiver:

Kendall Wright (DK - $5,100; FD – $5,800) – Realistically, who else is going to do anything for Tennessee on offense? This pick is solely based on the possibility of a massive workload intertwined with a solid matchup (@ Tampa Bay). The Titans offer next to nothing in the run game, and don’t really have much to offer through the air other than Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker. There’s a lot of reason to avoid this situation completely, but I think that’s going to be the mindset of most players in week 1. That leaves us with an opportunity to roster a player with the prospective for a myriad of targets. This isn’t a sexy pick, but that’s exactly what we want in pursuit of the millions; we want a player that most won’t even acknowledge despite the realistic upside. Wright is a cheap option that won’t make or break your rosters either, which is precisely what we’re looking for. Go ahead and roster Wright, because no one else will.

Michael Crabtree (DK - $4,400; FD - $5,600) – This pick is similar to the Reggie Bush pick; everyone is talking about the young stud while simultaneously forgetting about the veteran. Crabtree is a solid wide receiver (mediocre, if you ask Richard Sherman) that never really panned out in San Francisco. The talent has always been undeniable, but it seems that most people have given up Crabtree. I think this could be a revival year for him. The Oakland Raiders were top 5 in passing attempts last season (mind-boggling, I know), and they look to be in line for a similar finish in passing attempts this season. They’ll trail in many games throughout this season, and that will be no different against Cincinnati in week 1. I’m predicting double-digit targets for Crabtree in this game. While the rest of the DFS world salivates over Cooper, we’re going to roster Crabtree at a massive discount with a much lower ownership to give ourselves a massive edge against the field.

Honorable Mention – Keenan Allen (DK - $7,100: FD - $7,900)

Tight End:

Jason Witten (DK - $4,000; FD - $5,800) – Witten had a down year by his standards last season. He’s getting up there in age, but that doesn’t matter to me. Witten is an ironman; he plays through everything and is reliable as all hell. With Demarco Murray now playing for Witten’s rival, I see the Cowboys upping the pass attack to a similar degree as the 2013-2014 season. That can only mean good things for Witten, as it’s likely that his targets increase this season. His targets fell below 111 last season for the first time since 2006, but that is going to change with Murray gone. Randle and McFadden aren’t as good as many seem to think, no matter how good that offensive line is. All this leads me to believe that Witten will absolutely outperform his numbers from last season. Week 1 is going to be a shootout with their rival Giants, and I see Witten scoring at least one touchdown while approaching the 100-yard mark. With recency bias keeping many off of Witten, he makes for a perfect low ownership play.

Vernon Davis (DK - $3,100; FD - $5,300) – Boy, has it been a rough year or so for the 49ers. They’ve lost a lot of players this offseason and had a rough fall from the top last season. Vernon Davis has been one of the main victims of this fall, and it seems like this has caused the football community to completely forget he exists. He won’t ever be what he was a few seasons ago, but he’s still a talented player with a physical advantage over a vast majority of defensive players in the NFL. As mentioned earlier, the 49ers are likely going to have to throw a lot in week 1 due to a bad defense and a tough matchup. Vernon Davis will have a minuscule ownership after his awful year last season. It’s a worthy gamble to take for a talented player on a pretty bad team. For such a cheap price, he’s worth the risk in hunting for an inexpensive touchdown. I see Vernon scoring against Minnesota to open the season.

Honorable Mention – Larry Donnell (DK - $ 3,200; FD - $5,300)

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