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High Low Crime Rates

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Texkansahomatucky Map of High vs. Low Crime Counties

Group Assignment Part 1

MGMT 650

UMUC

February 05, 2012

Team 4: STAT Team

Tezra Hamilton

James R. Johnson

Bholi Lamba

Patricia S. Miller

Introduction:

Team STAT created a map that highlights high crime and low counties in the state of Texkansahomatucky per the Justice Department’s request. We were given county names, populations, area size, code, and the number of occurrences of seven different types of crime. We used the data provided to divide the counties into high crime and low crime areas in addition to creating a color coded map of the state based on our findings.
Metrics Used: 1. Calculation of population per square (sq.) mile a. Individual county population/area(sq. mi) 2. Crime variable analytics a. Calculated each crime on a sq. mile basis for all counties (ex. murder per sq. mile = murder/population per sq. mile). b. Calculated the average of each crime using “crime per sq. mile” data. c. Calculated “total crimes” for all counties based on crimes per sq. mile. d. Sum of all crime averages (13.96) was used as a median to determine high and low crime areas.
Results:

High crime counties (crime total of 13.96 and above): Kern, Kent, York, Cook, Lake, Knox, Ray, Lane, and Webb. Low crime counties were (crime total 13.95 and below): Lee, Bell, Pike, Ida, Clay, Cass, King, Bay, Kane, Nye, and Jay
Justification:
At first glance, one would tend to assume that highly populated areas would have higher crime rates than the low populated area; however, this assumption is inaccurate. These types of assumptions lead to misrepresentation of statistical data and do not provide an accurate assessment of Texkansahomatucky’s crime data. In an effort to accurately portray each counties crime data; we used the secondary information provided to calculate population per square mile which was the starting point used to calculate the remaining quantitative crime variables. Team STAT determined that a highly populated area was any county with a population greater than 1310.39 residence per square mile. We acknowledged that a large area size and highly populated county does not necessarily equate to a high crime county, which proved to be the case for six out of eight counties that were deemed “highly populated”. We concluded that we must devise an all-inclusive method that takes into account population and area size. By dividing each counties population by their area size allowed us to calculate population per square mile and crimes per square mile. Square mile calculations provide a more accurate representation of all counties regardless of overall county population and area size. Team STAT concludes that the population size and area size are not directly correlated with crime occurrence.

Appendix A

|County |Crime Metric |
|Nye County |5.163923502 |
|Bay County |6.880915951 |
|Ida County |7.129322817 |
|Pike County |7.797650129 |
|Jay County |8.208254333 |
|Kane County |8.545979453 |
|Lee County |9.312821575 |
|Cass County |11.69360897 |
|Clay County |11.81389555 |
|Cook County |13.03255723 |
|King County |13.08022114 |
|Bell County |13.4255618 |
|York County |14.4283324 |
|Lake County |15.48252037 |
|Kern County |16.13647703 |
|Ray County |18.26256883 |
|Lane County |19.08097262 |
|Webb County |20.42055978 |
|Knox County |20.88531387 |
|Kent County |38.43144321 |

Table 1: Texkansahomatucky Statistical Crime Data Analysis: 2011

|High Crime County |13.96 and above |
|Low Crime County |13.95 & Below |

Appendix B

Figure 1: Map of Texhansahomatcuky

[pic]

Appendix C

Table 2: Texkansahomatucky Crime Data: 2011

|Texkansahomatucky Crime Data: 2011 |
| |Violent Crime |Property Crime |

County |Population |Area (sq mi) |County Code |Murder |Rape |Robbery |Agg. Assault |Burglary |Larceny |MV Theft | |Lake County | 4,537,195 | 1,002 | 074 076 150 |83 |802 |2284 |5096 |12585 |45782 |3475 | |Lee County | 4,229,379 | 754 | 137 055 192 |160 |1360 |4375 |9372 |8422 |26140 |2409 | |Clay County | 2,823,135 | 662 | 120 090 210 |92 |821 |2591 |5356 |9522 |29682 |2317 | |Knox County | 1,919,369 | 844 | 145 126 271 |73 |638 |1915 |5071 |8917 |28560 |2322 | |Cass County | 1,332,650 | 788 | 076 080 156 |25 |231 |695 |1607 |3626 |12593 |999 | |Bay County | 1,272,513 | 441 | 119 078 197 |38 |356 |1072 |2546 |3284 |11586 |973 | |Pike County | 950,265 | 577 | 082 069 151 |21 |203 |545 |1244 |2067 |8075 |687 | |Nye County | 735,343 | 385 | 074 073 147 |13 |119 |391 |980 |1960 |5905 |495 | |King County | 295,745 | 910 | 127 068 195 |10 |90 |277 |602 |731 |2355 |186 | |Ray County | 201,212 | 674 | 126 149 275 |6 |62 |192 |444 |971 |3498 |279 | |Jay County | 195,146 | 624 | 100 063 163 |5 |45 |137 |345 |394 |1517 |124 | |Cook County | 61,676 | 588 | 075 120 195 |1 |11 |34 |69 |275 |899 |78 | |Kane County | 51,784 | 489 | 131 089 220 |1 |16 |47 |112 |161 |521 |47 | |Kern County | 49,708 | 664 | 087 128 215 |1 |10 |31 |70 |225 |810 |61 | |Webb County | 48,055 | 811 | 075 132 207 |0 |8 |29 |62 |208 |841 |62 | |Kent County | 38,851 | 1,422 | 137 145 282 |1 |14 |42 |97 |192 |648 |56 | |Ida County | 21,427 | 536 | 056 071 127 |0 |2 |8 |19 |54 |187 |15 | |Bell County | 19,224 | 711 | 071 105 176 |0 |3 |9 |21 |68 |244 |18 | |Lane County | 16,944 | 1,234 | 085 077 162 |0 |3 |11 |23 |43 |170 |12 | |York County | 5,379 | 597 | 115 122 237 |0 |1 |5 |10 |21 |87 |6 | |

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