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Highline Financial Service, Ltd.

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Submitted By JeniferR
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Executive Overview
Highline Financial Services, Ltd. provides financial services to its clients. It separates these services into three categories, A, B, and C. For planning purposes, the company requires a forecast of demand for each of its three categories of service over the next four quarters. Given no significant changes in advertising and promotion or in competition, this report examines the demand for each category of service, over the past two years to predict a reasonable estimate of demand for the coming year.

Analysis

The additive approach to the naïve method of forecasting serves as a standard of comparison against the other time-series data forecasting technique, the moving average. The naïve method versus the moving average technique result in the following estimates for year three for each category of service each quarter, respectively: Service A first quarter 84/66, second quarter 57/48, third quarter 124/106, and fourth quarter 95/80. Service B first quarter 75/90, second quarter 65/80, third quarter 78/88.5, and fourth quarter 35/57.5. Service C first quarter 111/97.5, second quarter 60/82.5, third quarter 110/110, and fourth quarter 110/95. The data from years one and two as well as the estimates for year three are shown in Appendix A.
In reviewing the last two years of demand data, Service A has a general increase in demand, Service B has a general decrease in demand, and Service C has a flatter pattern of demand. The historical graphs in Appendix B, C, and D for Service A, B, and C, respectively, show these general trends developing. The naïve method and the moving average technique graphs, shown in the same appendices, show the historical graphs with the addition of the coming year estimates. The naïve method gives a better estimate for Service A and Service B. Service A shows continued upward growth and Service B shows continued

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