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HIPERINFLASI di INDONESIA Tahun 1963

Hiperinflasi tetap tidak dapat dihindari akibat money creation yang terus menerus, sehingga pada tanggal 13 Desember 1965 pemerintah melakukan pemotongan nilai uang dari 1000 rupiah menjadi 1 rupiah. Kebijakan ini memberikan pukulan besar bagi perbankan nasional, terutama yang telah menyetor modal tambahan karena tergerus drastis dalam sekejab. Para nasabah perbankan juga gigit jari akibat nilai dana simpanannya juga menciut 1/1000. Segala usaha pemotongan nilai uang ini ternyata tidak berhasil meredam inflasi, dan harga tetap naik membumbung tinggi maka terjadilah hiperinflasi.
Ada yang mempertanyakan mengapa ekonomi terpuruk hanya karena nilai mata uang yang berubah? Itulah masalahnya karena banyak uang beredar terlalu besar akibatnya menurunkan nilai mata uang itu sendiri. Tetapi lain bagi pemilik emas, harganya masih tetap stabil, ketika rupiah terpuruk dari 1 USD menjadi 20.000 rupiah, maka harga emas akan semakin membumbung tinggi , jika melakukan jual beli didalam negeri. Silahkan anda renungkan……bagaimana kekuatan emas ini….saat itu….saat hiperinflasi terjadi.
Ditulis oleh logam mulia pada November 12, 2008
Pada tahun 1963 Gubernur bank sentral ditetapkan sebagai sebutan Menteri urusan bank sentral, pada waktu itu segala urusan kebijakan moneter ditetapkan oleh Menteri urusan bank sentral dan bertanggung jawab langsung kepada Presiden.
Waktu itu aksi-aksi militer guna memadamkan pemberontakan di daerah makin menggerogoti anggaran pemerintah, diperbesar lagi adanya propaganda politik misalnya, pemberontakan Irian barat, konfrontasi dengan Malaysia, pembangunan proyek2 mercusuar dan lain sebagainya, yang akibatnya menimbulkan defisit bagi negara semakin parah. Defisit negara yang semula pada tahun 1955 sebesar 14% membengkak menjadi 175%. Sehingga untuk menutupinya pemerintah melakukan money creation yang mengakibatkan inflasi makin tinggi.
Tingginya laju inflasi ini mengikis tingkat suku bunga riil para deposan, bahkan menjadi negatif. Akibatnya banyak bank yang menggunakan uang nasabah dimasukkan ke institusi luar yang returnnya lebih tinggi termasuk perdagangan komoditas yang untungnya jauh lebih besar. Sehingga BI memberi aturan tegas bagi bank2 di Indonesi agar uang tidak lari keluar guna menjaga likuiditas dalam negeri. Sifatnya adalah membatasi ruang gerak dan peningkatan permodalan. Pemerintah memberikan aturan bahwa seluruh saldo bank2 swasta harus dipindahkan ke rekening bank-bank pemerintah. Untuk itu pemerintah mengharuskan bank2 swasta menambah jumlah modal sebesar 25 juta rupiah.
Namun hiperinflasi tetap tidak dapat dihindari akibat money creation yang terus menerus, sehingga pada tanggal 13 Desember 1965 pemerintah melakukan pemotongan nilai uang dari 1000 rupiah menjadi 1 rupiah. Kebijakan ini memberikan pukulan besar bagi perbankan nasional, terutama yang telah menyetor modal tambahan karena tergerus drastis dalam sekejab. Para nasabah perbankan juga gigit jari akibat nilai dana simpanannya juga menciut 1/1000. Segala usaha pemotongan nilai uang ini ternyata tidak berhasil meredam inflasi, dan harga tetap naik membumbung tinggi maka terjadilah hiperinflasi.
Perlu diketahui bahwa gejala hiperinflasi ini dulu juga dimulai dengan menguatnya nilai tukar usd seperti sekarang yang terjadi. Dimana USD menguat takterkendali, padahal RESESI EKONOMI terjadi di negara yang mengeluarkan uang USD tersebut. Waktu itu Indonesia amat bergantung pada IMPORT sehingga bahan2 baku dan barang di Indonesia meningkat tak terkendali, suku bunga bank meroket 90% guna mengurangi likuiditas yang terlalu besar beredar di masyarakat. Dunia usaha macet, banyak penganguran dimana-mana, GDP minus, banyak orang frustasi.
Ada yang mempertanyakan mengapa ekonomi terpuruk hanya karena nilai mata uang yang berubah? Itulah masalahnya karena banyak uang beredar terlalu besar akibatnya menurunkan nilai mata uang itu sendiri. Tetapi lain bagi pemilik emas, harganya masih tetap stabil, ketika rupiah terpuruk dari 1 USD menjadi 20.000 rupiah, maka harga emas akan semakin membumbung tinggi , jika melakukan jual beli didalam negeri. Silahkan anda renungkan. Bagaimana kekuatan emas ini….saat itu….saat HIPERINFLASI terjadi.
Sumber : http://geraidinarbogor.blogspot.com/2010/01/hiperinflasi-di-indonesi-tahun-1963.html

Uraian kasus :
Pada tahun 1963, Indonesia melakukan money creation yang berlebihan. Hal tersebut mengakibatkan money supply di Indonesia tinggi. Money supply yang tinggi menyebabkan nilai mata uang rupiah turun. Untuk mengatasi hal tersebut pemerintah Indonesia melakukan suatu kebijakan, dimana pemerintah melakukan pemotongan nilai mata uang rupiah 1/ 1.000. Kebijakan ini memberikan pukulan besar bagi perbankan nasional, terutama yang telah menyetor modal tambahan karena tergerus drastis dalam sekejab. Segala usaha pemotongan nilai uang ini ternyata tidak berhasil meredam inflasi, dan harga tetap naik membumbung tinggi maka terjadilah hiperinflasi.
Inflasi tersebut menyebabkan nilai tukar mata uang asing menguat. Pada saat itu, Indonesia bergantung pada import. Nilai tukar mata uang asing yang menguat menyebabkan harga barang import melonjak tinggi. Padahal industri di Indonesia menggunakan bahan baku import. Hal tersebut mengakibatkan banyak pabrik yang melakukan pengikisan tenaga kerja bahkan menutup usahanya. Jumlah pengangguran pada saat itu melonjak tinggi.
Nilai mata uang lokal yang turun menyebabkan para pemegang uang beralih ke mata uang asing untuk mendapatkan keuntungan. Untuk menahan hal tersebut pemerintah Indonesia menetapkan tingkat suku bunga dinaikan untuk menarik para nasabah menyimpan uang di bank.

Analisa kasus: Jika dalam suatu Negara tengah mengalami tingkat inflasi yang tinggi dimana jumlah uang beredar relatif lebih banyak dibandingkan dengan jumlah barang, pemerintah akan berusaha mengatasi hal tersebut dengan meningkatkan tingkat suku bunga. Hal ini dimaksudkan agar masyarakat lebih memilih untuk menyimpan uang mereka di bank dari pada mengkonsumsinya. Sehingga tigkat permintaan atau konsumsi barang atau jasa dapat menurun . Hal ini dapat berdampak pada keseimbangan jumlah barang dan jumlah uang beredar sehingga dapat kembali pada keadaan equilibrium atau keseimbangan semula. Negara yang inflasinya relatif lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan Negara lain maka mata uangnya akan cenderung melemah (relative inflation rate). Hal ini terkait dengan aspek purchasing power parity. Dimana ketika inflasi meningkat maka purchasing power parity akan menurun. Teori Paritas Daya Beli (Purchasing Power Parity Theory = PPPT) digunakan untuk menganalisa pengaruh inflasi antara dua negara terhadap kurs valas. Variabel-variabel yang digunakan dalam PPPT adalah perubahan kurs spot dalam persentase dan perbedaan laju inflasi antar dua -negara. Menurut PPPT, kurs spot suatu valas akan berubah sebagai reaksi terhadap inflasi. Ketika harga produk dalam negeri mengalami peningkatan maka masyarakat akan cenderung untuk mencari alternatif tawaran dari Negara lain yang lebih murah. Akibatnya kurs mata uang dalam negeri akan melemah seiring dengan penurunan permintaan akan mata uang dalam negeri. Permintaan mata uang asing akan meningkat seiring dengan peningkatan produk dari Negara lain. Itulah sebabnya mengapa Negara yang inflasinya relatif lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan Negara lain maka nilai mata uangnya akan cenderung melemah. Sedangkan hubungan antara tingkat suku bunga dan nilai tukar adalah sebagai berikut. Negara dengan tingkat suku bunga yang relatif lebih tinggi maka nilai mata uangnya akan cenderung menguat. Hal ini terkait dengan penyimpanan uang. Jika suatu Negara memiliki interest rate yang lebih tinggi maka masyarakat akan cenderung lebih tertarik untuk menyimpan uangnya di Negara tersebut. Terdapat dua pendekatan dalam meganalisis relative interest rate terhadap nilai tukar mata uang, yakni International rate parity dan International Fisher Effect Dengan menggunakan teori paritas suku bunga dapat diketahui hubungan antara bursa valas dan pasar uang internasional Interest Rate Pariety Theory (IRPT) paling banyak digunakan dalam literatur keuangan internasional yang menyatakan bahwa perbedaan tingkat suku bunga pada pasar keuangan internasional mempunyai kecenderungan yang sama dengan forward rate premium atau forward rate discount. IRPT menekankan pada perbedaan antara kurs forward dan kurs spot yang tercermin dari perbedaan tingkat suku bunga antara dua negara. Kurs forward mata uang suatu negara yang mengandung premi ditentukan oleh perbedaan tingkat suku bunga antar negara. Akibatnya arbitrase suku bunga yang ditutup akan lebih menguntungkan jika dibandingkan dengan suku bunga domestik. Variabel yang digunakan pada IRPT adalah premi forward dan perbedaan suku bunga antar dua Negara. IRPT memfokuskan pembahasannya pada penyebab terjadinya perbedaan antara kurs forward dengan kurs spot yang dapat mencerminkan perbedaan antara tingkat suku bunga antara dua negara dalam suatu periode tertentu. Sedangkan pada PPPT dan International Fisher Effect Theory (IFET) memfokuskan pembahasannya pada bagian kurs spot berubah sepanjang waktu. International Fisher Effect Theory memprediksikan bahwa kurs spot bergerak mengikuti perbedaan suku bunga antar negara. Dengan demikian terdapat hubungan antara International Fisher Effect Theory dengan PPPT, karena perbedaan tingkat suku bunga antar dua negara dipengaruhi oleh perbedaan tingkat inflasi antar negara

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