...Indian Institute Of Management Lucknow August 2013 A MICROECONOMIC STUDY ON GOLD Submitted to Professor Sanjay K Singh By Section E, Group J Aman Doharey (PGP30244) Mahesh Raja R (ABM11045) Prerna Pal (PGP30265) Rohit Mandappalli (PGP29341) Shradhha MeryllinePanna (PGP30280) Swagata Das Chowdhury (PGP30419) Tanuj Kumar Lodhi (PGP30420) Table of Contents Introduction Background Protection Requirement Elasticity Of Gold Gold Consumption Scenario in India Need and Objective Of Study Research Methodology Tools and Techniques Hypotheses Data Analysis 1. US Dollar 2. Crude Oil 3. Silver 4. Inflation 5. Sensex Values Findings and Conclusions INTRODUCTION This report emphasizes on studying, interpreting and illustrating the various economic factors affecting the consumption and price of the precious metal Gold. We examine the impact of factors that maybe reason for such distortion and also see how the change in gold price impacts other commodities in the open market. Background Used as a sovereign since ages, gold has always been a sought after commodity. The price variation has almost always been upwards and has had a steep rise in this trend. A few pointers about Gold can be inferred as below. Production Gold is majorly obtained through mining, other sources may include recycling, trading etc. Through these sources gold enters the market. Requirement Gold is an essential commodity in any country’s economic...
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...develop your hypothesis; Are the U.S. Borders secure enough? B. With border security we have an issue with our nations security of in the southern land border with Mexico. Over the last 15 years there have been 12.2 million undocumented immigrants that have tried to cross the border. That number has dropped to 11.3 million. 1. Define all terms in your hypothesis: The really problem is when is our nation going to get better security for this problem to stop. 2. Identify points for further clarification (if any): When I think of border security, All I can think of is 911 or the incident that accord the other day with 2 cops getting shot by an undocumented immigrants. And this immigrant had two identities. a.) Sub points a (as needed) Border mayor on immigration crisis is illegal immigration children and mothers are trying to cross the border to escaping violence at home. The concern about better border security to protect our citens from the Ebola virus our on a rise. b.) Sub point b “ The is a lot going on with the border security Obama want to pass a bill about letting illegal immigrant’s in to our country. c.) Sub point c “ Another issue is that Obama wants to let illegal immigrants in the USA to be able to come a better living for there family and let them take work away from us Americans that are struggling to get employed and get by in life to make a living. I. Other necessary information (as needed) The border security is a huge crisis in the US immigration...
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...Introduction: Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) implies markets to be rational, incorporating new information to reflect in stock prices rapidly, considering direction and size of the share price movement. Consequently, leaving no opportunities for investors to beat the market and acquire abnormal returns. Predictable information raises the stock prices prior to its occurrence, and rapidly adjusting at the event date. Addendum to EMH, Random Walk Theory proposes market prices abide no pressure from past-price movements thus pursue a random course, making impossible to forecast future-price movements as they are an independent of past-prices. Fama (1970) establish three-level grading system portraying degree of market efficiency, based on investment approach endowing abnormal returns: Market anomalies are inconsistent with EMH and a consequence of deviations and incomprehensible patterns in smooth running of stock markets. Anomalies are statistically considerable and additionally proffer investors with risk adjusted economic returns. Once documented and scrutinized in literature, anomalies tend to disappear, overturn, or attenuate; doubting their subsistence in past, as being statistical irregularity, or have been arbitraged away. This essay will begin by defining limitations of CAPM and introduce three-factor model. Additionally, it will discuss the fundamental anomalies (Value and Size effects), calendar anomalies (January, Weekend and Time-of-the-month effects) and...
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...Hypothesis Testing Statistical Method Karl Phillip R. Alcarde MBA University of Negros Occidental-Recoletos DEFINITION DEFINITION Hypothesis testing or significance testing is a method for testing a claim or hypothesis about a parameter in a population, using data measured in a sample. In this method, we test some hypothesis by determining the likelihood that a sample statistic could have been selected, if the hypothesis regarding the population parameter were true. Hypothesis testing or significance testing is a method for testing a claim or hypothesis about a parameter in a population, using data measured in a sample. In this method, we test some hypothesis by determining the likelihood that a sample statistic could have been selected, if the hypothesis regarding the population parameter were true. The method of hypothesis testing can be summarized in four steps. 1. To begin, we identify a hypothesis or claim that we feel should be tested. For example, we might want to test the claim that the mean number of hours that children in the United States watch TV is 3 hours. 2. We select a criterion upon which we decide that the claim being tested is true or not. For example, the claim is that children watch 3 hours of TV per week. Most samples we select should have a mean close to or equal to 3 hours if the claim we are testing is true. So at what point do we decide that the discrepancy between the sample mean and 3 is so big that the claim we...
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...Examining the Effects of Music on Memory <Name Removed> University of Mary Hardin-Baylor Abstract This experiment was designed to test the effects that classical music has on memory. Previous experiments have shown that the effects of music can be beneficial in work and school environments. Our hypothesis was that a group that is required to listen to classical music during a study would outperform a group who studied in silence. The participants were college students and were randomly assigned to two groups. The control group performed the experiment in complete silence, while the experimental group listened to classical music the entire time. Both groups were asked to examine a picture and memorize as much as they could for two minutes. Immediately after two minutes a short distraction film was played and a multiple choice test was given. The results were not statistically significant and our hypothesis was rejected. Methodological limitations and ideas for follow-up research are discussed. Keywords: music, memory, memorize, distraction, test Examining the Effects of Music on Memory Memory is an area that sparks the interest of many scientists. Memory can be affected by multiple genetic and environmental factors having positive and negative influences on working memory function (Alley & Greene, 2008). Research has shown that if music is played to babies while in the womb, they possess recognition and memory recall of the music a year after being...
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...Question 1 For 4 Dow Jones stocks for a 15 year period, compute quarterly realized betas from daily data. Find firm specific and macroeconomic variables that help explain quarterly beta. Answer 1.1 Factors Introduction Factor model survey the sensitivity of a stock return as a function of one or more factors. There are single-factor and multi-factor models. In factors model, based on the type of factors used, it can be classified to economic and fundamental factor models. Economic factor models use macroeconomic and financial markets variables as factors, while fundamental factor models use firm-specific microeconomic variables, such as financial indicators. In recent research shows that the change in macroeconomic factors could be reflected in the change of systematic risk which impacts a stock’s expected return (Humpe & Macmillan 2007). Macroeconomic factors included industry production index, CPI, GDP, unemployment rate, inflation rate, risk premium, default premium, business cycle index and so on. From Chen (1986) notable study which uses variables include industrial production, inflation, risk premium, term structure, market index, consumption and oil prices to found out that industrial production, unanticipated change in the risk premium, unanticipated inflation, and, a slightly weaker, the unanticipated change in term structure, are the most important factors affecting expected stock returns. The 15 macroeconomic variables used as factors in our model are...
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...136 Positive Accounting Theory and Science JCC Journal of CENTRUM Cathedra ™ Positive Accounting Theory and Science by M. Humayun Kabir Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Business Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand Abstract This paper examines the development of positive accounting theory (PAT) and compares it with three standard accounts of science: Popper (1959), Kuhn (1996), and Lakatos (1970). PAT has been one of the most influential accounting research programs during the last four decades. One important reason which Watts & Zimmerman (1986) have used to popularize and legitimize their approach is that their view of accounting theory is the same as that used in science. Thus, it is important to examine how far accounting has been successful in imitating natural science and how the development of PAT compares with the three standard accounts of science. This paper shows that accounting could not emulate the success of natural science. Further, the methodological positions of PAT conform to none of the standard accounts of science. Rather, PAT contains elements of all three. Finally, this paper identifies some methodological gaps in PAT. Keywords: Positive Accounting Theory, Philosophy of Science, Methodological Controversies Acknowledgements I would like to thank two anonymous reviewers of the journal for their helpful comments. Earlier versions of this paper benefited from comments from Lee Parker of the University of South Australia, Keith...
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...the Free-Cash-Flow, the Maturity and the Catering Hypotheses all predict an average positive (negative) reaction to announcement of a dividend increase (decrease). However, these hypotheses have different cross-sectional predictions. This paper documents that the positive stock price response to dividend increases is due primarily to the signaling of higher future earnings, to the managers catering to the time-varying premium assigned by the market to dividend paying stocks, and partially to the reduction of agency problems. On the contrary, the negative price response to dividend decreases is mainly due to the transition from a mature life-cycle stage to a decline stage with higher systematic risk, as maintained by the Maturity Hypothesis. Keywords: Dividend; Signaling; Overinvestment; Life-Cycle. JEL Classification Numbers: G14, G35. ∗ I would like to thank Albert Sheen for his constant support and excellent insights. I would also like to thank Antonio Bernardo, my mentor over the years, and Mark Garmaise and Walter Torous for their helpful comments. All errors are mine. 1 1 Introduction The impact of dividend change announcements on stock prices has been widely documented. Petit (1972) and many others afterwards show on average a positive correlation between dividend changes and short term abnormal returns. In a recent study, Grullon, Michaely, and Swaminathan (2002) show a 3-day cumulative abnormal return of 1.34% for dividend increases and...
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...Due on 4/29 * Test corrections * Final Paper – Hard Copy * Final Exam – 15 questions – each worth similar points * Review midterms 1, and 2 in its entirety * Chapter 14 and 15 new material – complete the problem set on blackboard * Blue book and tables and calculator * 2 sides of 8 x10 * 14 and 15 all sections – not going to give us 30 observations and ask us to calculate the coefficient. No calculation formulas in the chapters. Put on the cheat sheet what a generic model looks like, a generic estimation. * Might have to interpret residuals, what is the formula for residuals, why do we calculate residuals. * Residual is the difference between the observed value and expected value of y…I think…… So imagine that I am in the city council and I want to be able to estimate the number of police officers for my city, From my data set I want to look at the relationship between officers and crime. Maybe the best way to complete this is to look at population. My initial hypothesis is that the size of the city is going to determine the number of officers. This means that my alternative hypothesis is that there is no connections between the size of the city and the number of officers. The intuition behind this is that the larger the city in square miles, the more officers we need patrolling the area. Moreover, it makes sense that the amount of crime also is connected to the number of officers. In order to begin to understand the relationship...
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...that many of the evolutionary adaptations our brain has undergone in connection with communication have been directed at improving the efficiency and effectiveness of face-to-face communication, which begs the question: What happens when we selectively suppress face-to-face communication elements (e.g., colocation, the ability to employ/observe facial expressions) through e-communication technologies? This paper tries to provide an answer to this question by developing a hypothesis, called the media naturalness hypothesis, which builds on modern human evolution theory. The media naturalness hypothesis argues that, other things being equal, a decrease in the degree of naturalness of a communication medium (or its degree of similarity to the face-to-face medium) leads to the following effects in connection with a communication interaction: (1) increased cognitive effort, (2) increased communication ambiguity, and (3) decreased physiological arousal. It is argued that the media naturalness hypothesis has important implications for the selection, use, and deployment of e-communication tools in organizations, particularly in the context of...
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...use their higher-order process or thinking skills in conducting a research. Let us provide you a brief description of the parts of the Science Investigatory Project Report below. Title The Title should be clear and precise. It has an objective or purpose. It should not be written too long or too short. By just reading the title, you can determine what the investigative study is all about. Abstract The Abstract should be one or two paragraphs only. It includes your research problems, the method or procedure that you used and the findings or conclusion of the study. Chapter I 1. Introduction and Its Background The Introduction is about one page only wherein it includes the background of the study and its rationale. It usually leads into the research problem. 2. Statement of the Problem The Statement of the Problem has two categories namely: the general problem and specific problems. Usually, one general problem and three specific problems which derived from the general problem. The research problems should be specific, reliable,valid, measurable, objectively stated. It can be a question form or in a declarative statement. 3. Formulation of the Hypothesis The Formulation of the Hypothesis has two types namely: the null hypothesis and affirmative hypothesis. Hypotheses is a scientific guess which intends subject for thorough investigation. It is recommended to use null hypothesis in your research project. 4. Significant of the Study The Significant of the Study...
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...use their higher-order process or thinking skills in conducting a research. Let us provide you a brief description of the parts of the Science Investigatory Project Report below. Title The Title should be clear and precise. It has an objective or purpose. It should not be written too long or too short. By just reading the title, you can determine what the investigative study is all about. Abstract The Abstract should be one or two paragraphs only. It includes your research problems, the method or procedure that you used and the findings or conclusion of the study. Chapter I 1. Introduction and Its Background The Introduction is about one page only wherein it includes the background of the study and its rationale. It usually leads into the research problem. 2. Statement of the Problem The Statement of the Problem has two categories namely: the general problem and specific problems. Usually, one general problem and three specific problems which derived from the general problem. The research problems should be specific, reliable,valid, measurable, objectively stated. It can be a question form or in a declarative statement. 3. Formulation of the Hypothesis The Formulation of the Hypothesis has two types namely: the null hypothesis and affirmative hypothesis. Hypotheses is a scientific guess which intends subject for thorough investigation. It is recommended to use null hypothesis in your research project. 4. Significant of the Study The Significant of the Study...
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...--------------------------------2 Markan Priority---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3 Q Hypothesis------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------4 L and M------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6 Two Gospel Hypothesis-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------7 Conclusion--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------10 Bibliography------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------11 Introduction There are differences in the area of Synoptic Gospel as well as there are large amounts of similarities that can be proved with all the evidence written as well as physical. The synoptic Gospels are ones that include Matthew, Luke and Mark. The reason they are called synoptic, which means, seen together, is because of their adjacent similarities, which allow the texts to be set out in congruence for comparison. It is commonly established that there is a “literary relationship” between them, but the “phenomena” are multifaceted and rulings on them are “conflicting.” “Prevailing in modern critical scholarship is the Two Document Hypothesis (TDH), namely, that Mark was the first gospel and was one of two...
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...September 2003; accepted 28 June 2004 Available online 23 September 2004 Abstract Using an international database containing 103 German, UK and US ethical mutual funds we review and extend previous research on ethical mutual fund performance. By applying a Carhart multi-factor model [Carhart, Journal of Finance 57 (1997) 57] we overcome the benchmark problem most prior ethical studies suffered from. After controlling for investment style, we find no evidence of significant differences in risk-adjusted returns between ethical and conventional funds for the 1990–2001 period. Our results also suggest that ethical mutual funds underwent a catching up phase, before delivering financial returns similar to those of conventional mutual funds. Finally, our performance estimates are robust to the inclusion of ethical indexes, which, surprisingly, are not incrementally capable of explaining ethical mutual fund return variation. Ó 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: G12; G20; G23 Keywords: Mutual funds; Performance evaluation; Style analysis; Ethical investments * Corresponding author. Tel.: +31 10 408 2790; fax: +31 10 408 9017. E-mail address: c.koedijk@fbk.eur.nl (K. Koedijk). 0378-4266/$ - see front matter Ó 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2004.06.035 1752 R. Bauer et al. / Journal of Banking & Finance 29 (2005) 1751–1767 1....
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...are packed without any gaps and can not be separated from their immediate neighbors. In that sense they are not discrete. In this course we will be concerned with objects such as integers, propositions, sets, relations and functions, which are all discrete. We are going to learn concepts associated with them, their properties, and relationships among them among others. Why Discrete Mathematics ? Let us first see why we want to be interested in the formal/theoretical approaches in computer science. Some of the major reasons that we adopt formal approaches are 1) we can handle infinity or large quantity and indefiniteness with them, and 2) results from formal approaches are reusable. As an example, let us consider a simple problem of investment. Suppose that we invest $1,000 every year with expected return of 10% a year. How much are we going to have after 3 years, 5 years, or 10 years ? The most naive way to find that out would be the brute force calculation. Let us see what happens to $1,000 invested at the beginning of each year for three years. First let us consider the $1,000 invested at the beginning of the first year. After one year it produces a return of $100. Thus at the beginning of the second year,...
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