Damian – Introduction – Migration in Canada * Why do we have to look at internal migration in Canada? Why is it important? * Even from the beginning of Canadian history, The Macdonald commission, found that when looking into the long term economic potential the Canadian federation will have problems in the regional disparity. * The question of regionalism and population distribution has been going on for a while and particular attention is placed on international and internal migration in Canada * Should Canada bring people to the jobs or the jobs to people? What do you think?
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Alex - Population distribution * Before the arrival of Europeans settlers, the aboriginal peoples were concentrated on the pacific coast and in the St Lawrence valley, extending in southern Ontario, but its very different now * Population distribution is an important indicator of the relative attractiveness of the various parts of the country and how that has changed with time * At the time of the 1986 census 72 percent of the population lived within 150km of the United States boarder and 85 percent lived within 300km of the boarder * If we look at the population distribution by regions that run east and west around the time of confederation, Ontario had 43 percent of the population, Quebec had 32 percent and the Maritime Provinces had 20 percent and the remaining 3 percent lived west of Ontario * The major changes in population distribution occurred with the immigration wave of 1897- 1913. * The four western provinces constituted 11 percent of the population in 1901 but jumped to 23 percent in 1911. * The distribution of British Columbia increased from 1921 to 2001 by 750% while Saskatchewan was increased by 30 percent. * Lower population density equals lower growth * For the country as a whole, the population has more than doubled in the last 50 years, but all provinces expect Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia had much lower rates of growth * Ontario gets its gains from immigration and internal migration. * Toronto boomed because of the resource of the Canadian Shield and the fact that it is so close to the sea * In 1951 Toronto was 18 percent smaller than Montreal, by 1967 they were the same size and in 2001 Toronto was 37 percent larger * The harsh winters and dry conditions limit the agricultural potential of the Prairies and their attractiveness for settlement * Alberta is growing because of the oil resources, BC because of the wood and minerals and the moderate climate and trade links in the Pacific Rim * The North’s population has increased but not enough to have any significant influence

Damian - Urban and rural areas * As late as 1931, over half the population lived in rural areas and 31.1% were classed as ‘rural farm’, by 1986 only 3.5%. * In 1871, the only city with more than 100,000 people was Montreal(3% of pop), by 2001 27 census metropolitan areas of this size(64% of pop)
NEXT SLIDE * What three cities now dominate the urban landscape? * Toronto and Montreal dominate urban landscape, Vancouver close behind * In 2001, four large urban regions contained half of Canada’s population: * the extended golden horse 6.7 million people of 22% of countries pop * Montreal – 3.7 million, 12%, BC has 2.7 million,9%, Calgary-edmonton corridor, 2.2 million, 7% * Size of the 25 largest metropolitan areas grew from 45% in 1951 to 63% in 2001 * 27 metropolitan areas and total population of these areas have been growing, 7 on the decline (LOOK IN BOOK), none within the main 4 * Cities that grown the most are among the largest * Urban population is defined as an area with more than 1000 or more, inc. from 62% in 1951 to 80% in 2001 – number of towns with urban populations * Rural population are less than 1000, or less than 400 people per square kilometer * 1871 80% of population was rural, 2001 20% of the population in rural areas * Rural farm population declined from 1.42 million in 1971 to 820,000 in 1996 * In ben’s class, we talk about the shift from rural to urban, bad for small towns but how bad is it for the country on a whole?
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Alex -Dynamics of internal migration * What factors can influence the change in distribution of the population? * The change in distribution of the population can be the result of natural increase, international migration or internal migration * 3 generalization can be made about migration: * characteristics of people who are most likely to migrate – young adults, above average education and socio-economic status * Areas of origin and destination – predominately from smaller to larger places, places with fewer opportunities to places with more * Migration process which is destructive to people’s lives – people prefer not to move, but when they do move they follow family and friends * People are likely to return home to the place of birth, province where people completed the highest degree of primary and secondary education (Rosenbaum) returning could have been part of the plan * Clearly often an economic motive to migration, helps to explain choice of destination * McDonald commission concludes that economic incentives are the main forces shaping migration flows particularly for Canadians in the labor force * A quarter of the population would move for a job that offered 25% higher pay, ¾ would not * There are also social factors since people prefer not to move and move is often assisted by relatives and friends * People are more likely to move when they are first leaving home because of less integration in that community * Concluded that social factors are mostly involved in the decision on whether or not to move, people are more prone to move at stages in their life where there is less integration into their community, once the decision to move has been made, economic factors are the main factor in the choice of a destination * Close than 1/5 of moves are based on wanting to live with or closer to family or friends * People move at stages in their lives that involved disruptions like leaving home, finishing school, finding a job, starting or terminating a relationship or retiring * When people are settled, especially in a case of a two income family with children, a higher salary at a different location will not be attractive, but when people are looking for a first job a higher salary may prompt them to move, especially if they see other opportunities at their potential destination * Migration rates in and out of Quebec and lower because of what we just said, except for moves to and from Ontario, Quebec appears to be disconnected to the rest of the country * Liaw states that the cultural barrier around Quebec, means that the French speaking population is less likely to leave the province, and English speaking outside of Quebec are less likely to move to Quebec * Every year since in 1971 the census has asked people about the place of residence 5 year earlier * About half the people (52-56%) are living in the same residence as they were living 5 years ago * 24-25% have changed residence but within the same municipality, 13-17% changed municipality within the province, 3-5% of the people are living in a different province than they were five years earlier * In contrast to the common view that there is more and more movement in the modern world, Canadian data for the period 1972 to 2011 show a slight drop in internal migration between provinces * Types of migrants: primary, return and onward * Can anyone guess what each one is? * Primary is people who leave the province, return is people who leave and come back and onward is people who leave and come back and leave again * On average 6 out of 1000 people left a region if they were born there, but 42 out of 1000 left if they were born from another region * The ratio between these two types of migration is highest in Quebec, where those who were born in the province are less likely to leave * Basically of every province your less likely to leave Quebec * The departure of both categories is highest in the prairie region, defined as Manitoba and Saskatchewan * It is also note worthy that departure rates of those not born in the region are lowest for BC * BC also attracts the largest percentage of people who have left their region of birth * As an average 27% of Canadian born in-migrants over the period of 1991 to 1996 were in fact returning to their province of birth * Analyses of the determinants of the three kinds of migration suggest that onward migrants are most affect by economic considerations while return migrants are less economically motivated, primary migrants move the shortest distances

Damian - Demographics components of population redistribution * The immediate components of change in population distribution involve differences in natural increase, internal migration and the extent to which international migrants go to the various regions
Damian - Natural increase * Which province has the highest natural increase but not the highest population? * Quebec had the largest advantage with a natural increase 25% higher than would be expected from the size of its population * Recently rates of natural increase have become more uniform across the country * As natural increase gets lower, migration becomes the dominant component of demographic growth and population distribution
Damian - International migration * The differential arrives of immigrants in various parts of the country has a significant effort in population redistribution * International migration also increases the growth of the larger metropolitan areas * Canada’s largest urban regions like we stated before are receiving the largest number of immigrants
Damian - Internal migration * In many regards, the internal migration of native born is similar to that of foreign board, in particular, the departures tend to be from the Atlantic, prairie provinces into Ontario and BC * In any one year, the number of people moving across provincial boarders is about 300,000 or about 50% larger than international migration * Ontario can be seen as the hub of the migration system since the overall numbers coming to and leaving Ontario account for nearly half of all movers in the country
Damian - Implications * Globalization gives certain large cities gives them the advantage and makes them the receiving areas for immigration * The imbalance of the population is putting further strain on the constitutional arrangements that need to be properly represented at the federal level. For example senate seat, supreme court judges, ect * Still attempt to have ministers from each province * Problems in representation, need to find better ways to include the regions in federal policy making institutions

Alex - Cities, towns and rural areas * There are rather difficult implications of the evolving demographic patterns for cities, towns and rural areas * In 1973 a tri-level conference adopted three objectives: a need for more balanced urban growth, a need to redistribute urban growth to small and medium sized towns, and a need to improve the quality of the environment in large urban centers * The patterns of imbalanced distribution of populations in towns and cities are compounded in the aging population, two factors are: older people are less likely to move and those who do move all go to the same place in large numbers * Small towns are also affected by the fact that the younger population is leaving, that means that all needs for health care, public housing, subsidized transportation, care facilities and recreational facilities will be on the rise
Damian - Population distribution and regional economic inequality * The trends in population distribution are associated with economic inequality across the country * The richest provinces still has about double the average earned income per capita than the poorest and is 35% higher than the total average income per capita * Development policies laid out by the economic union and development prospects for Canada considers 3 approaches: the inter regional market approach – equalize wages across regions, improve regional productivity and the efficiency of the labour market, as wages decline in disadvantage regions, compensatory policies would compensate individuals and families living in disadvantaged regions through equalization and transfer payments * Canadians are more likely to stay in regions where they do not have jobs * There is a basic conflict between attaining overall economic efficiency and achieving regional development * The tax system supports migration by allowing tax deductions for the cost of moving * Active labour market policies through employment insurance provide funds for training, looking for work, or accepting a job when a person has to move. On the other hand, through the shorter qualifying period for benefits in the more depressed regions, the employment insurance system reduces the incentive to move in search of work