...of the Humanities and Social Sciences, 228-77, Pasadena, California 91125, USA (Received 25 June 1999; in nal form 28 April 2000) Abstract. The objectives of this study are to quantify, based on remote sensing data, processes of land-cover change and to test a Markov-based model to generate short-term land-cover change projections in a region characterised by exceptionally high rates of change. The region of Lusitu, in the Southern Province of Zambia, has been a land-cover change ‘hot spot’ since the resettlement of 6000 people in the Lusitu area and the succession of several droughts. Land-cover changes were analysed on the basis of a temporal series of three multispectral SPOT images in three steps: (i) land-cover change detection was performed by combining the postclassi cation and image diVerencing techniques; (ii) the change detection results were examined in terms of proportion of land-cover classes, change trajectories and spatio-temporal patterns of change; (iii) the process of land-cover change was modelled by a Markov chain to predict land-cover distributions in the near future. The remote sensing approach allowed: (i) to quantify land-cover changes in terms of percentage of area aVected and rates of change; (ii) to qualify the nature of changes in terms of impact on natural vegetation; (iii) to map the spatial pattern of land-cover change. 44% of the area has been aVected by at least one change in land cover during the period 1986 to 1997. The average annual rate...
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