...Industry Forecasting Joey Willoughby BUS620 Managerial Marketing Instructor: Dr. Mary Wright July 2, 2012 Industry Forecasting An organizational environment is composed of “the actors and forces” outside marketing that affect marketing management’s power to develop and sustain successful transactions with its target consumers. Macro-forecasting in industrial settings is basically concerned with the forecasting of markets in total. This concerns the existing level of market demand, while also considering the market’s future. New homes are a product offered within an industry (construction), in which macro-trends could have a major impact over the next five (5) years. An organization’s macro-environment relates to the larger forces having a direct impression on society as a whole. An organization has little, if any ability to sway these said forces, and thus can only adapt its marketing mix to provide a reason for the resulting opportunities and threats. (Weigand, Robert A. 2012) There are many features of an industry that may determine the degree of competition, as well as the relative position of profitability in an organization. Several macro-trends encompass industry forecasting and can impact either negatively or positively within an organization. The macro-trends include: Economic trends: In this particular macro-trend...
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...The Impact of the E-Book Reader An E-Book reader is defined as “a portable electronic device that is designed primarily for the purpose of reading digital books and periodicals. The main advantages of e-book readers are better readability of their screens especially in bright sunlight and longer battery life. This is achieved by using electronic paper technology to display content to readers. Any device that can display text on a screen can act as an e-book reader, but without the advantages of the e-paper technology” (Wikipedia, n.d.). E-books are a new category computing devices that are gaining appeal to the mass market. The e-book entered the market in 2007 and started to gain notice in 2010. It is only gaining more leverage as this new technology gains ground and growing competition. The main focus of e-readers is entertainment. With nearly one in five American adults now owning a tablet according to a new study from the Pew Research Center. A paperless future might be sooner than we expect. So what does the macro environmental trends show for the e-reader’s future in five years? The macro trends, for short can be divided into six major components: demographic, socio-cultural, economic, technological, regulatory, and natural environments. So what does this all have to do with e-readers? It allows marketing managers and strategists to see what trends are influencing demand in the market of interest, whether favorably or unfavorably. Demographic environment is related...
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...Forecasting In the Banking Industry Name of the Student: Name of the Institution: Date of Submission: The banking industry operates globally. In every economy, banks are very significant for its growth and development. For the banks to effectively meet their targets and continue operating efficiently, they need to have a good forecast of their targets. In forecasting, there are various variables that are used by the banks. First there is the customer base. Customers that are served by any bank are the ones who determine its operations and the profits it records. Any bank needs to understand its current number of customers and the possibility of their growth. This is because the customer base of any bank is what determines its level of profits on the services it renders. Customer base also largely determines the number of employees that are to be employed in order to have timely and effective service delivery. (Rapach, 2008) Secondly, there is the level of interest rates prevailing in the economy. Banks largely depend on the interests that they charge their customers for the services rendered. Finances received from the interests charged are used to meet various expenses incurred by the bank, such as advertising expenses and commissions. Therefore, the level of interest rates is a very important variable that any banking institution needs to effectively predict so as to avoid unexpected fluctuations. (Rapach, 2008) The third variable is the general salary levels of its employees...
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...Every MBA student needs it some day Monday, August 30, 2010 SEARCH HOME LOGIN SUBMIT FAQ SITE STATS New Solution Join Now Get instant access to over 67,000 case studies and MBA term papers. Most Recent Requests » general management » HBS no. 9 Responding to W » deutsche braueri » Nordstrom Case » Case studies on marketing » hrm case studies as well » mongolian grill case more.... Register FREE and post your request for FREE Saved Papers Save Paper to find them more easily. Newest Entries » Skype swot Analysis » IKEA invades America » Business management » Being Global: Good or Bad » IGGY’S BREAD OF THE WORLD Recent Topics • loctite • LG • Dominos • Human resource managem • Project Management Harnischfeger Corporation Questions 1. Identify all the accounting policy changes and the accounting estimates that Harnischfeger made during 1984. Estimate, as accurately as possible, the effect of these on the company´s 1984 reported profits. 2. What do you think are the motives of Harnischfeger´s management in making the changes in its financial reporting policies? Do you think investors will see through these changes? Answers 1. Identify all the accounting policy changes and the accounting estimates that Harnischfeger made during 1984. Estimate, as accurately as possible, the effect of these on the company´s 1984 reported profits. a. Changes that affect the Harnischfeger...
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...Forecasting is an important aspect in today’s business world. Every day businesses strive or lose, depending on the successfulness and accurateness of their forecasting. For successful forecasting, the forecaster needs to have a clear understanding of the current business activities, past trends, and the company’s business strategy. Case 5 exhibits key principles on the way financial forecasting is done. Understanding the Financial Relationships of the Business Enterprise Forecasters use current information to predict the future business activities of the company. This information is found on the financial statements of the company. For example, the balance sheet provides a snapshot of the business’ assets, liabilities and equity at a specific point in time, whereas the incomes statement provides a view of the flow of costs during a specific time frame. Financial ratios measure the relationships between various items on the financial statements. By comparing various ratios with those of previous years, trends can be identified. Because many financial ratios tend to be perserved over time, these ratios are very valuable for the forcaster. The forecaster can estimate only one financial statement line item and, by applying this number to the various ratios, he can make a complete forecast. Grounding Business Forecasts in the Reality of the Industry and Macroenvironment An accurate forecast is made by recognizing not only internal data, but also external data. The environment...
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...Distribution and Channel Management MT211 The main aim of my essay is to show my understanding of the main principles and concepts of distribution and channel management through the use of notes on Moodle, information I gathered from attending lectures and also from literature that I have read on this topic. The Supply Chain is the sequence of suppliers that contribute to the creation and delivery of a good or service to end customers, meanwhile Supply Chain Management is organizing the cost effective flow and storage of materials, in-process inventory, finished goods and related information from point of origin to point of consumption to satisfy customer requirements. A major element of the supply chain is the use of logistics which is the management of the storage and flow of goods, services and information throughout your organisation. Logistics can be broken down into three major elements, Firstly, materials management which is the sourcing and receiving of raw materials or unfinished products for subsequent use. Secondly, material flow system which can be defined as the ability to locate and schedule material through to end production and disposition, and finally the physical distribution which is the delivery of finished goods to customers. The main aim of a supply chain management is to evolve a company’s supply chain into an optimally efficient, customer-satisfying process, where the effectiveness of the whole supply chain is more important than the effectiveness of...
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...Paper 1) What are the underlying issues? ⇨ Low demand in the aerospace and defense industry products, inaccurate forecast of some expenses, Since few customers buy relatively small numbers of multimillion dollar aircrafts and other aerospace systems, this products are considered low demand compared to consumer goods. Orders for new systems often involve long negotiations , but orders for spare components can be typically placed from the manufacturers catalog. 2) How the issues were resolved? ⇨ Through SSS (Studies, surveys and strategies.) First is to study the size of the market share and drivers of demand. It is also important how often major components fail and sent for repair. If a failed major components is beyond repair, it needs to be replaced with a new system. Followed by surveys and consultation of their customers. They are interested in finding out how changing customers demand for their products. Lastly the strategies which includes availability and reliability of data, right forecasting model, customer collaboration, sales and operations planning process and the measurement of forecast error. 3) What are the findings? ⇨ Due to relatively low demand and MRO, forecasting demand in the Aerospace and Defense industry is very challenging. The industry is currently going through major evolution in its forecasting practices in an effort to drive down cost and enhance service. Demand for new product and better...
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...Forecasting: Relying On The Unknown http://www.manufacturing.net/articles/2007/10/forecasting-relying-on-the-unknown September 23, 2007 was the autumnal equinox — the official end of summer. The leaves are beginning to turn colors and the seasons are changing. For some manufacturers, the end of summer could be the end of a busy season, or it could just be the beginning. If you manufacture beach towels or Christmas trees, you’re locked into seasonal demand. How do you adjust your operations to handle your peak time? How much of a peak period will you have? How much capacity will you need? What will be your inventory storage and holding costs? Factors and Consequences There is a lot of variability when it comes to demand — consumer tastes may change, competition could increase, weather patterns could change, etc. “The farther away in time a forecast is from the sales it projects, the less accurate the forecast will be. This stands to reason that the longer the horizon, the more changes will take place between the forecast and the actual sales,” said Jane Lee, Vice President of Supply Chain, Supply Chain Consultants. “Picture a company that makes orange juice,” said Jim LeSage, Executive Vice President with The Facility Group. “They may be producing more at the start of the school year or during cold and flu season, but the oranges are only harvested at a certain time.” That leaves the orange juice company with few options, LeSage explains. The company...
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...how my chosen corporation American Express applies some of the forecasting techniques to better develop the company. There will also be the analysis of production plans, master production schedules, and carrying inventory and how it relates to the overall American Express budget. Along with all the above we will also compare and contrast how planning usage differentiates between a service organization such as American Express and a manufacturing organization. Lastly we will also compare and contrast the use of material requirements planning system concepts. When it comes to forecasting it is first important to determine the different types of forecasting and how they are classified. In forecasting there are four basic types which are qualitative, time series analysis, casual relationship, and simulation. The first forecasting type qualitative is "subjective or judgmental and are based on estimates and opinions", (Chase, Jacobs, & Aquilano, 2006). Some of the main characteristics of qualitative forecasting are market research which is encompassed by collecting data by surveys and interviews which help determine market hypothesis. This research is most commonly used for long range and new product sales. This would be a great description as to when American Express uses surveys to improve on new production of invoicing and reporting tools to provide to our clients. Another characteristic to qualitative forecasting is historical analogy. This is the one characteristic that would...
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...Staffing Forecasting and Planning (Book Review) ORGS 6200 MANAGING HUMAN RESOURCES Synopses: J Phillips and S Gully start this well researched and practical book by stressing the importance of workforce planning through recognizing the value of strategic staffing on the company’s ability to improve its capabilities and survive any economic environment while reducing its labor related costs as well as many other expenses indirectly associated with its employees. It is further stressed that talent and its acquisition are to be treated as investments not costs of doing business. It is argued that a single most important factor in order to ensure an organization’s strategic goals are met, is its ability to hire the right people at the right time in order to enhance the firm’s return on its investment. The authors then further expand on this theory by defining a set of common goals for staffing forecasting and planning activities that can benefit any company in any industry and economic life cycle. In addition, the book discusses the importance of understanding a company’s strategy, goals and competition in order to identify what type of talents will the firm need and when. “Ensuring that the right people are in the place at the right time, requires understanding and forecasting the firm’s labor demand and maintaining an awareness of relevant pipelines of labor supply and talent. Action plans can then be developed to address any gaps between labor supply...
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...Discussion Questions: 1,7, and 15 1: (a) What is forecasting? Why is it so important in the management of business firms and other enterprises? (b) What are the different types of forecasting? (c) How can the firm determine the most suitable forecasting method to use? a) Forecasting is used to try and predict the economic activity of a firm’s future. It aims to reduce risk/uncertainty that is faced in the short-term operational decision making. It is also used to plan for the firm’s long-term growth. Forecasting helps make decisions by using macroforecasts of the general economic activity as inputs for their microforecasts of the industry’s and firm’s demand and sales. Forecasting helps decide a firm’s marketing strategy, production needs, sales forecast, and helps predict financial needs such as cash flow, profits, and outside financing. Furthermore, it helps make personal based decisions, as well as assist for the long-term future of the firm (Salvatore, 2012). b) Forcasting types range from expensive to inexpensive, as well as simple to complex. Forecasting techniques can be qualitative, and others can be quantitative. Salvatore focuses on qualitative forecasts. These forecasts include: time-series, smoothing techniques (moving averages), barometric forecasts with leading indicators, econometric forecasts, and input-output forecasts. c) A firm determines the most suitable forecasting method to use by using the following criterion: ...
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...to visit. Along with that with their word of mouth the supermarket can have more regular customers. So their profit generation will increase with a huge percentage. b. Forecasting: Forecasting means the future expectation of an operation or product or service or any kind of situation. Forecasting is very important for the supermarket’s success. Because if they can’t forecast properly that how much their customers need and how much they should supply, then company might face a huge threat to business. So for the successful operation for any supermarket they need to be conscious about their forecasting. c. Capacity planning: Capacity planning means the planning of the organization about their capacity of any kind of business related activities to reach their best effective operation. Capacity planning is also a vital part of the supermarket’s successful operation. If they are unable to plan successfully that how much their capacity is to run the operation then supermarket might face a serious threat to their business operation. d. Location: Location means the operational place of the business. Location is a valuable element of supermarket business. Because, if depending on targeted customer supermarket is not placed correctly, then they cannot be successful in the industry. To be successful they need to be conscious about...
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...Startup Company Name Institution Date Describe the new start-up company that you have created. Include in your description the nature of your company, its mission and vision, your company’s product, an analysis of your staff, and your target clientele. DynaTech is a company that has emerged in the industry of drone navigation and since it was established, it has been capable of developing a standard operating process, which has been essentially responsible for the acquisition, transfer, and identification of knowledge between the various company network’s sections. Due to the skill shown by its management in handling diverse concerns, the company has been proficient in developing a clientele which in diverse establishments in such a short period, where other institutions take years to attain the same. The vision of DynaTech is to create an improved form ofexpertise for all its customers in the most and best secure way possible andso as to accomplish it. It has worked headed for the provision of a variety of serviceable and well-designed navigation systems. Additionally, it has guaranteed that the production cost is low to ascertain that the selling price of its commodities is low such that as most people as likely can be capable to buy them. The policy for human resource include provision of opportunities for down-to-earth people to grow in both professionally and individually so as to produce a better life each and every day not only for the workers but also its...
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...Forecasting Methods Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck. Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new technologies with uncanny accuracy. There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass. Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena. Trend extrapolation - These methods examine trends and cycles in historical data, and then use mathematical techniques to extrapolate to the future. The assumption of all these techniques is that the forces responsible for creating the past, will continue to operate in the future. This is often a valid assumption when forecasting short term horizons, but it falls short when creating medium and long term forecasts. The further out we attempt to forecast, the less certain we become of the forecast. The stability of the environment is the key factor in determining whether trend extrapolation is an appropriate forecasting...
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...The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” Article Summary In the context of the global financial crisis and the turbulence that this has brought to the world economy and therefore to organisations, the article “The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” by Gill Ringland published in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social change volume 77 (9) aims to persuade the reader on the need for strategic foresight over the next decade and what role scenarios can play within strategy foresight activities in organisations (Ringland, 2010). The author predicts that organisations in the west will experience a period of great change and that they are mostly ill-prepared to deal with the rate or the enormity of this change. Ringland believes that conventional business planning will need to change and suggests the need to develop a systematic review of organisational practices that will lead to strategic foresight. This will ensure that organisations are in a position to cope and survive changes in their external environment. Ringland begins by pointing out that the current position of the world economy shows that business and government have a significant debt burden that will take years to pay back especially in the west. In an environment of unemployment, reduced consumer spending and debt repayment, wealthy nations will recover slower than developing nations. There is also a shift in international competitiveness due to changes in labour skills and costs as well as technological...
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