...An Analysis : Inflation and Growth Submitted By: Omkar Athalekar Parag Sapkal Sudipto Sur Tushar Nayanam Inflation What is Inflation? Inflation can be defined as a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services. It is measured as an annual percentage increase. As inflation rises, every unit of currency one owns buys a smaller percentage of goods and services. How is inflation measured? Measuring inflation is a difficult problem even for government statisticians. To do this, a number of goods that are representative of the economy are put together in what is referred to as a “Market Basket”. The Cost of this basket is then compared over time. This results in a price index, which is the cost of the market basket today as a percentage of the cost of that identical basket in the base year. The index number is a single figure that shows how the whole set of related variables has changed over time or from one place to another. In particular, a price index reflects the overall change in a set of prices paid by a consumer or a producer. Different countries use different indices, some of the common ones are : Consumer Price Index : The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the retail buyer. It is designed to measure changes in the level of retail prices of selected goods and services on which consumers of a defined group spend their income. Wholesale Price Index : WPI represents the price of goods at a wholesale stage i.e. goods...
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...Money Growth and Inflation Can reproduction drive demand? As of October, the question shall be answered as the Communist Party of China have ended their one-child policy on child birth and allowed all married couples to have two kids. Such change in policy was directed to alleviate the demographic squeeze noted in the Chinese population, where they are experiencing an aging population along with a stagnant or shrinking work force. At the same time, with an increase in permitted child births, as any new parent knows- babies mean buying lots of stuff. With couples now being allowed to have a second child, such change could create an increase in spending within 9 months, if not sooner. The stock market, being forward-looking, would then proceed to bid up on shares of diaper makers, baby-bottle manufacturers, and skin-care products (Barrons, 7). Couples may also feel the need to move into bigger living quarters to ensure they have space for another child. On top of that, comes the decorating period with different colored themes to prepare for the babies arrival. Down the road, spending of families will continue to increase as they have tuitions, tutoring, sports teams, camps, computers, phones and all the other activities that come with having children. Having more children means forking out much more money into the economy. So with years to come, China’s economy is looking to boom, as a result of the communist’s countries’ new policy. The question is, could this become a good...
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...Debashish Roy (Roll – 232) | GROUP ASSIGNMENT CORRELATION BETWEEN GROWTH AND INFLATION WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO INDIA & CHINA One of the most fundamental and central macroeconomic policy objectives of the governments, central bankers and economists has been to sustain high growth rate with low inflation. The influences of other macroeconomic variables like aggregate demand, unemployment and investment and that of factors like human and natural capital and technology on economic growth are well-established. But when it comes to the inter-relationship between inflation and economic growth, there are divergences in opinion, more so because of lack of any linearity in the two variables. Introduction Theoretically, it is argued that when growth is caused by rising aggregate demand at low level of unemployment, it would lead to inflationary tendencies. This is because when demand aggregate outstrips the available supply, the disequilibrium would push the prices up. Low and declining unemployment level means wages would also rise and thus price rise caused by demand pull will also bring in the cost push factors to sustain the inflationary conditions. Inflationary tendencies can be thwarted when the aggregate demand pulls are matched by increased productivity and investment. But in the times of inflationary expectations, the investment slackens as the future prospects of earnings deteriorate and thus the inflation continues to spiral. Short- run Philips Curve do give a fair explanation...
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...current GDP o econom growth with usi econometric tec on mic h ing chniques w that provide with p approp priate proc cedures fo estimati and in or ion nference.Fo many c or country, in nflation has an importan effect in econom situatio n nt n mic on.Moreov ver,inflatio is used for to on d see how much countries developed. w d .But in my case i us inflatio for how much y sed on w it effec cted econo omic grow wth.And a also i follo up oth variabl with in ow her les nflation to show how the effect economic g w ey growth. T mode include a poten The el es ntial impa of inf act flation on growth ,current , GDP, inflation effect on consume prices via anuua % valu and in er al ues nflation on deflator(an nnual %). effect o GDP d T mode highlig The el ghts if inf flation inc creses dir rectly ther is a negative re n impact on grow t wth.When inflation above th percent he tage of … …then gro owth is affect in a nega ative way.Below tha rate inf at flation does not hav any ef ve ffect on h y ve tly e growth or it may even hav a slight positive effect. S So,in this paper inc clude both negative and posi h e itive affec of inflation on ct econom grow but mostly neg mic wth m gative aff fect, and also incl lude time series e eviden about how muc inflatio and def nce ch on flator have an impa on eco act onomic growth in Turke between 1979-20 h ey n 008. Introducti ion; T pape examine the effe of inf This er es ects flation on economic growth of longc o term.T inflation may effect econ The...
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...Working Paper ofthe International Monetary Fund The v i e w s e x p r e s s e d a r e t h o s e o f the a u t h o r ( s ) a n d d o n o t necessarily represent those of the Fund. WP/98/68 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Policy Development and Review Department Inflation, Disinflation, and Growth Prepared by Atish Ghosh and Steven Phillips1 Authorized for distribution by Timothy Lane May 1998 Abstract Although few would doubt that very high inflation is bad for growth, there is much less agreement about moderate inflation's effects. Using panel regressions and a nonlinear specification, this paper finds a statistically and economically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth. This relationship holds at all but the lowest inflation rates and is robust across various samples and specifications. The method of binary recursive trees identifies inflation as one the most important statistical determinants of growth. Finally, while there are short-run growth costs of disinflation, these are only relevant for the most severe disinflations, or when the initial inflation rate is well within the single-digit range. JEL Classification Numbers: E31, 040. Keywords: inflation, growth determinants, growth regressions, robustness. Authors' E-Mail Addresses: Aghosh@imf.org; Sphillips@imf.org 1 We would like to thank Kadima Kalonji for research assistance, and Alan Taylor and Maurice Obstfeld for making available their computer programs. Hugh Bredenkamp, Sharmini...
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...[Cover page] Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) Working Paper Series: WP 0604 Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: 1981-2005 Shamim Ahmed Md. Golam Mortaza December 2005 Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) Research Department, Bangladesh Bank Head Office, Dhaka, Bangladesh (www.bangladeshbank.org.bd) (www.bangladesh-bank.org) Policy Analysis Unit* (PAU) Working Paper Series: WP 0604 Inflation and Economic Growth in Bangladesh: 1981-2005 Shamim Ahmed Research Economist, Policy Analysis Unit Research Department Bangladesh Bank Md. Golam Mortaza Senior Research Associate Centre for Policy Dialogue December 2005 Copyright © 2005 by Bangladesh Bank * The Bangladesh Bank (BB), in cooperation with the World Bank Institute (WBI), has formed the Policy Analysis Unit (PAU) within its Research Department in July 2005. The aim behind this initiative is to upgrade the capacity for research and policy analysis at BB. As part of its mandate PAU will publish, among other, several Working Papers on macroeconomic research completed by its staff every quarter. The precise topics of these papers are chosen by the Resident Economic Adviser in consultation with the PAU members. These papers reflect research in progress, and as such comments are most welcome. It is anticipated that a majority of these papers will eventually be published in learned journals after the due review process. Neither the Board of Directors nor the management of Bangladesh Bank, nor WBI, nor any agency...
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...gross domestic product and inflation using data from 1960-2010 to analyze the results. We have taken the data in percentage form. A great number of empirical studies on the relationships of monetary policy and inflation are available and most of these have analyzed the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation in Pakistan. In this paper we have presented the effectiveness of monetary policy it’s framework and data estimation through which we reached to the conclusion that monetary shocks do affect real variables like GDP, inflation and exchange rate. Pakistan has been estimated by a number of researchers and it has been recognized that monetary phenomenon are responsible for the high levels of inflation. Keywords: Monetary Policy, Inflation, Exchange rate, Economic Growth, Gross domestic product and Pakistan. Introduction This paper attempts to examine the long-run effects of Monetary Policy on several economic variables such as inflation, economic growth that is gross domestic product and exchange rate in Pakistan. For this purpose, analysis have been employed for the period 1960-2010. As monetary policy actions affect policy variables with a significant gap and with high degree of unpredictability and insecurity, it is key to predict the probable impact and degree of monetary policy actions on the real variables. Usually, policy makers and central banks decide that price stability or low inflation would prompt higher economic growth. Commonly, historical indication...
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...Topic name Impact of inflation on economic growth NAME: ZARGAM ABBAS Registration: MCM 143001 INTRODUCTION: The major purpose of this study is to examine the impect of inflation on economic on economy growth relationship in the economy of pakistan and to analyze the impact of inflation of gdp growth Pakistan; the unemployment was 3.14 percent in the year 1973; it increased to 3.7 percent in the year 1980, then it started declining and became 2.55 percent in the year 1989. After the year 1989; the unemployment started increasing and it reached to its highest level 8.64 percent in the year 2003he inflation rate changed each year and followed both upward and downward trend. It could be seen from the figure no. 2 for a case of Pakistan Objective: The major objective of the present study is to analyze the impact of inflation on gdp growth in pakistan. It is to evaluate the gdp growth performance and to assess the historical trends of the inflation in pakistan To determine and examine the feasible threshold level of inflation for gdp growth It is needed to exploir if the inflation in the time series caused to reduse the growth of the economy or not Literature Review Wajid and kalim (2007) the impact to test unit root problem and in order to find out the long run relationship among unemployment; inflation, economic growth, trade openness and urban population as share of total population the findings of the study sheds light on the impact of urban population as...
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...Problem Statement Rising rate of inflation in Pakistan in last decade, factors that impact this rise in inflation. The factors are monetary i.e. money supply, exchange rate and real GDP and other factors are banking and non-banking borrowings. Research attempts to give solutions for problem that how, why, and when these factors affect the rate of inflation. Research is aimed to identify reasons due to which inflation is rising in Pakistan and give solution for this problem. Review of Literature Inflation & Importance The general movement of a country's overall price level is of primary concern to all and more so if the movement is upward. The problem of inflation has virtually become a major concern for all economies - over the last few decades, Inflation has been accelerating at an alarming rate in most of developing countries. (Mohammed Sabihuddin Butt and Haroon Jamal: A MONETARIST APPROACH TO INFLATION FOR PAKISTAN: Pakistan Economic and Social Review Vol.X XVI No.2 (Winter1988) pp 69-87) Inflation adversely affects the overall growth, the financial sector development and the vulnerable poor segment of the population. There is clear consensus that even moderate levels of inflation damage real growth. Inflation decreases the real income and also induces uncertainty. Considering such adverse impacts of inflation on the economy, there is a consensus among the worlds' leading central banks that the price stability is the prime objective of monetary policy and...
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...Annual Growth Rate: A South Asian Perspective” Prepared for Bishnu Prakash Adhakari Economics: Course facilitator SOMTU, Kritipur Prepared by Gokul Gaire MBA 2nd Semester SOMTU July 18, 2013 ABSTRACT: The rate of inflation- the percentage change in the overall level of prices- varies grately across time and cross country. The objective of this paper is to analyze the consumer price inflation in South Asian Countries from 2002 to 2010. The annual percentage change in CPI and Average Annual Growth Rate in Consumer Price Indices are analyzed to examine the trend of inflation in South Asian Countries like Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan & Sri Lanka. India has average inflation of 5% but Sri Lanka is the hardest hit by the inflation among South Asian countries. Bhutan has very low rate of inflation and Maldives has rising trend of inflation. The inflation rates are co-related with the growth rate of gross domestic product and money supply of South Asian Countries. There is positive co-relation between the rate of inflation and rate of changed in GDP at constant prices in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka but negative correlation in Nepal. There is negative co-relation between rate of inflation and changes in money supply in Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan but positive co-relation in Nepal and Sri Lanka. In Pakistan the consumer price inflation is mainly due to oil price hike and food inflation. So the inflation scenario...
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...Inflation – Impacts On The Economic Growth Of Nigeria By DoubleGist | Published: June 5, 2013 Inflation – Impacts On The Economic Growth Of Nigeria Inflation – Impacts On The Economic Growth Of Nigeria A macroeconomics problem facing Nigeria, and the most disturbing, is the problem of inflation. As a result of its growing rate, Nigerian government is concerned about its impacts on her economic growth. To place an order for the Complete Project Material, pay N5,000 to GTBank (Guaranty Trust Bank) Account Name – Chudi-Oji Chukwuka Account No – 0044157183 Then text the name of the Project topic, email address and your names to 08060565721. Many authors have written on Impacts of inflation on Nigerian economy, but the authors have different views because inflation analysis, nevertheless, one thing common is that all the authors agree that inflation has Impact on Nigerian economic growth. Samuelson (1973), defines inflation as “a general rising prices for breeds, cars, haircut, rising wages, rent etc. Onwukwe (2003), on his side defines inflation as “a significant and sustained rise in the general price level or a declining value of the monetary units. The problem created by the rising prices of goods and services has become two difficult for government to solve. During inflationary period, fixed amounts of money buy less quantity of goods and services. The real value of money is drastically reduced i.e the purchasing power of consumers are reduced. The Impact of rapid...
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...Chapter 1: Introduction Introduction Over a decade, the consensus of economics growth remains the key focus for every nation notably in least development countries (LDC). Poverty eradication, income distribution and welfare enhancement often discussed widely by these nations. Economic growth is often seen as the 'holy grail' of economic policy. This simplistic emphasis on economic growth is often criticized because of the limitations of economic growth in improving living standards. Another question arise is does economic growth promote sustainable improvement on country development? Malaysia economy has been transformed from a protected low income supplier of raw materials to a middle income emerging multi-sector market economy in the past 20 years. This is driven by the export of manufacturing goods, particularly electronics and semiconductors, which constitute about 90% of exports. In this paper, the primary objective is to investigate what is the relationship between openness, inflation and FDI with economic growth. Export and import often plays pivotal role in determine the gross domestic product (GDP) in a nation. In particular, the research question to be outlined is how does openness, inflation and FDI affect economic growth. Multinational corporations (MNCs) are those organizations that own or controls productions of goods or services in one or more countries other than its home country. MNC plays major role in foreign aids recipient countries, it contribution to...
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...There are three major economic problems in our economy. They consist of economic growth, unemployment rates, and inflation. In the midst of this project, I will touch on all three of these major concepts. First let me start off with economic growth. The definition of economic growth is an increase in the amount of goods and services produced per head of the population over a period of time. So in reality this means “an increase in capital stocks, event is in technology, and improvement in the quality and level of literacy Are considered to be the principal cause of economic growth.” (1) Economic growth can be measured in two ways, by an increase in real GDP over appeared of time and an increase in real GDP per capita over sometime period. According to my macroeconomics book, the real GDP for the United States in 2011 was around $15,052.4 billion and $15,470.0 billion in 2012, which means economic growth rate for 2007, was 2.8%. Usually growth rates are positive, but they don’t always have to be, for example in 2009 the US growth rate was a -2.4%, which means a decrease in the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) during any given year. Let’s talk about modern economic growth, modern economic growth is defined as “sustaining an ongoing increases in living standards that can cause dramatic increases...
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...Studies INFLATION IN VIETNAM OVER THE PERIOD 1990-2007 A Research Paper presented by: Bui Thi Kim Thanh (Vietnam) in partial fulfillment of the requirements for obtaining the degree of MASTERS OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Specialisation: Economic of Development (ECD) Members of the examining committee: Dr. Karel Jansen Dr. Lorenzo Pellegrini The Hague, The Netherlands November, 2008 1 Disclaimer: This document represents part of the author’s study programme while at the Institute of Social Studies. The views stated therein are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Institute. Research papers are not made available for circulation outside of the Institute. Inquiries: Postal address: Institute of Social Studies P.O. Box 29776 2502 LT The Hague The Netherlands Kortenaerkade 12 2518 AX The Hague The Netherlands +31 70 426 0460 +31 70 426 0799 Location: Telephone: Fax: 2 Table of Content Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND AND STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM The period 1980-1984 The period 1985-1989 The period 1990-2007 1.2 OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE OF THE PAPER 1.3 APPROACH OF THE PAPER AND DATA 1.4 STRUCTURE OF THE PAPER Chapter 2 THE THEORETICAL AND EMPERICAL FRAMEWORK 2.1 THEORETICAL CONSIDERATION 2.1.1 Demand-pull inflation 2.1.2 Cost-push inflation 2.2 APPLICABILITY OF THE THEORIES IN THE CASE OF VIETNAM 2.3 EMPERICAL EVIDENCES Chapter 3 ANALYSING INFLATION IN VIETNAM AN OVERVIEW OF VIETNAM’S ECONOMY FROM 1990-2007 VIETNAM’S INFLATION OVER...
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...Inflation, or the general rise of price levels in an economy, has many deleterious effects. It leaves the economy as a whole poorer relative to pre-inflation levels of wealth (individual and societal). Inflation reduces the value of each unit of currency and thus leaves the holder of that currency with lower purchasing power. Generally speaking, those who benefit from higher inflation are debtors and those who suffer from it- creditors. If one has substantial debt, each dollar one has to repay would be worth less than when it was borrowed. In this way, one pays back less in real terms than one had borrowed. Those who may benefit from higher inflation are people with significant debt. Typically those most hard-hit are white-collar workers, teachers, pensioners, doctors, those on fixed incomes and those working for cash wages. These categories of people tend to have their wealth in savings, retirement funds and are, thus "creditors", whose future income will not be adjusted up as inflation rises. These people's incomes lag behind the speed of inflation making them poorer in irregular fits. Inflation, caused by a complex set of economic variables, is not a singular type of economic problem. Advantage – (pros) 1.People feel richer (money illusion) 2.Unexpected inflation benefits borrowers 3.Could be from extra growth in the economy or extra money which would lead to lower unemployment rates 4.If prices rise, then a currency devalues which would lead to growth in the export sector...
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