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Iranian Nuclear Program

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Iran's nuclear program is one of the most polarizing issues in one of the world's most volatile regions. While American and European officials believe Tehran is planning to build nuclear weapons, Iran's leadership says that its goal in developing a nuclear program is to generate electricity without dipping into the oil supply it prefers to sell abroad, and to provide fuel for medical reactors. Iran's first nuclear program began in the 1960s under the shah. It made little progress, and was abandoned after the 1979 revolution, which brought to power the hard-line Islamic regime. In the mid-1990s, a new effort began, raising suspicions in Washington and elsewhere. Iran insisted that it was living up to its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but in 2002, an exile group obtained documents revealing a clandestine program. Faced with the likelihood of international sanctions, the government of Mohammad Khatami agreed in 2003 to suspend work on uranium enrichment and allow a stepped-up level of inspections by the International Atomic Energy Association while continuing negotiations with Britain, France and Germany. In August 2005, Mr. Khatami, a relative moderate, was succeeded as president by Mr. Ahmadinejad, a hard-line conservative. The following January, Iran announced that it would resume enrichment work, leading the three European nations to break off their long-running talks. Under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has the right to enrich uranium, but the atomic energy association called for the program to be halted until questions about the earlier, secret program was resolved (II).

The United Nations Security Council voted in December 2006 to impose sanctions on Iran for failing to heed calls for a suspension. In Washington, administration hawks, led by Vice President Dick Cheney, were reported to favor consideration of more aggressive measures, including possible air strikes, while Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice pushed for more diplomacy. President George W. Bush sided with Ms. Rice, but declared that the United States would not negotiate directly with Iran until it suspended the nuclear research program. Months of inconclusive talks about talks followed. The situation was muddied in December 2007 when American intelligence agencies issued a new National Intelligence Estimate that concluded that the weapons portion of the Iranian nuclear program remained on hold (IV). That document said that Iran would probably be able to produce a nuclear weapon between 2010 and 2015, while cautioning that there was no evidence that the Iranian government had decided to do so, contradicting the assessment made in 2005. The estimates given by American military officials in April 2010 are roughly in line with the 2007 estimate. But in June, in the run up to a Security Council vote on sanctions, American officials made clear to their diplomatic counterparts that they now think that Iran has revived elements of its program to design nuclear weapons that the 2007 assessment concluded had gone dormant.

Top American military officials said in April of 2010 that Iran could produce bomb-grade fuel for at least one nuclear weapon within a year, but would most likely need two to five years to manufacture a workable atomic bomb. International inspectors said in May that Iran has now produced a stockpile of nuclear fuel that would be enough, with further enrichment, to make two nuclear weapons. President Obama spent the year of 2009 trying to engage Iran in a diplomatic fashion. Tehran initially accepted but then rejected an offer for a temporary solution under which it would ship some uranium out of the country for enrichment. In June 2010, after months of lobbying by the Obama administration and many European governments, the United Nations Security Council voted to impose a new round of sanctions on Iran. By September of last year, there were strong indications that Iran was beginning to feel pain, largely from the additional sanctions imposed by the United States, European, and Asian nations over the summer. But global nuclear inspectors reported at the same time that the country has dug in its heels, refusing to provide inspectors with the information and access they need to determine whether or not the real purpose of Tehran’s program is truly peaceful. And there continues to be questions about how well the program is faring. In August of 2010, the Obama administration convinced Israel that it would take roughly a year, perhaps longer, for Iran to complete a crude nuclear weapon. However, Israel was not just going to sit back and wait. A computer virus called “Stuxnet” was released into the mainframe of Iran’s nuclear program. Reports are saying that the virus was developed in Israel with the help of the United States. The virus has temporarily derailed the nuclear program. By all accounts, Stuxnet has to date managed to knock out 984 centrifuges and has, according to Israeli officials, set back Iran’s nuclear program by a good three-to-four years (I). The success of the virus is mostly due to the fact that Iran’s nuclear program is very crude and is using outdated technology. Iran is apparently using centrifuges modeled on the now-archaic designs of Pakistani scientist A. Q. Khan. America had gotten its hands on a large stockpile of these centrifuges when Libya dismantled its nuclear program in 2003, but U.S. and British engineers were unable to get the old centrifuges to operate in a stable manner. That’s where Israel came in. At a nuclear base in southern Israel, engineers did manage, reportedly after much trial and error, to get the outdated centrifuges to run stably and were able to test the meticulously-crafted computer worm on them (III). The next set of negotiations is scheduled for January 20, 2011. However, Iran has refused to discuss the subject of their nuclear program at these talks.
Works Cited
I. Barnes, Ed. "FoxNews.com - Mystery Surrounds Cyber Missile That Crippled Iran's Nuclear Weapons Ambitions." FoxNews.com - Breaking News | Latest News | Current News. Web. 12 Jan. 2011. .
II. "Iran Nuclear Timeline." Iran Nuclear Watch. Web. 12 Jan. 2011. .
III. "'Israel Tested Stuxnet on Iran, with US Help' - Hindustan Times." Hindustan Times: Latest Breaking News from India, Cricket, Bollywood, World, Business, Videos. Web. 16 Jan. 2011. .
IV. "Nuclear Weapons - Iran." GlobalSecurity.org - Reliable Security Information. Web. 14 Jan. 2011. .

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