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Is the Behaviour of the States Predictable?

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Submitted By hamzademirel
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Predicting the future has always been one of the basic interests of social sciences. In the past, leaders who wanted to gain or sustain power were used to consult oracles before deciding on critical issues. Today, the social scientists who try to minimize uncertainty about future are the modern oracles using modern technological capabilities.
Social science studies are ment to provide practice-oriented results which can be used for the benefits of humanity. Not only should social sciences explain the past or the present, but also anticipate the future thorough establishing laws of behavior and structural patterns. Especially in international relations studies, predicting the future is critically important for humanity in order to provide early warning of conflict and other disasters related to human race. In this respect, trying to find a proper answer to the question of ‘’Is the behaviour of the states predictable?’’ makes up a crucial issue.
Moreover, making decision in governing of the state is similar to playing chess. In order to be succesful in the chess, one must consider a lot of variables, need to know the rules of the chess, the motive behind the opponent’s each move/potential moves, continiously observe his or her movements and utilize a strategy.
As in chess, for being able to make accurate predictions in political events, many requirements are esential. For instance, prior knowledge (background), systematically collected data and experts who use these inputs for reaching a conclusion are some of them.
Nevertheless, prediction is not a very easy procedure in International Relations because of several limitations. Prediction is at least as difficult for a social scientist as for a seismologist who tries to forecast the most devastating earthquakes. Multidimensional variables affect the behaviour of states. The reaction of a single person can

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