...JET Copies Case Problem page 1 Assignment #1: JET Copies Case Problem By: Jenna Kiragis Quantitative Methods 540 7/29/2012 JET Copies Case Problem page 2 Case Problem JET Copies is a copy business opened by James, Ernie, and Terri, three students who wanted to make it more convenient for other students in their apartment complex to get copies in a timely manner. After obtaining a copy machine for the business with a loan from Terri’s mother, the students soon began discussing the frequent breakdowns that may occur. It was then that the three decided they needed a backup copier. However, the students wanted to first have an estimate of how much money they would be losing if they did not have a backup copier (Taylor, 2010). This paper will discuss methods that simulate the number of days needed to repair the copier, the intervals between successive breakdowns, and the lost revenue for each day the copier is out of service. All of these methods together will simulate the lost revenue due to copier breakdowns over 1 year. JET Copies Case Problem page 3 In Excel, use a suitable method for generating the number of days needed to repair the copier, when it is out of service, according to the discrete distribution shown. Lost revenue of Jet Copies due to breakdown can be done by generating random numbers from different probability...
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...solve analytically” (Taylor, 2009). In this case the results were based on the use of one copy machine, intervals of breakdown, requiring 1-4 days for repair at a loss, at $0.10 cents a copy. Day 1: 20%, Day 2: 45%, Day 3: 25%, Day 4: 10% a total probability of 100%. The point of this case study is to simulate the break-down and repair process for one year to obtain an average annual loss of revenue. In addition the amount of time between breakdowns increases the probability of needing more costly repairs. Should the anticipated lost revenue exceeds $12,000.00 annually a backup copier will be purchased. We must keep in mind the most important factors of customer satisfaction and convenience, which is what, prompted the owners of JET to start their business in the first place. The first part of creating the probability of breakdowns relied upon information supplied by Jet Copies and their estimated probability of distribution. The nearby college staff had prior knowledge of the service provider’s timelines for repair because they had the same copier in the campus office. JET used their own estimated repair time to recreate a random repair time probability table using a range of days. As a result the average repair time was 3 days at a cost of $691 per day in potential profit loss due to the machine being out of service. The second part was to generate the intervals between successive amounts of breakdowns to the primary copier machine only. Using random numbers and the...
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...whether or not JET Copies, a new copier company established by three friends, should purchase a smaller copier as a backup for the primary copier when the primary copier is not in service. The owners of the company have purchased a primary copier similar to the one in the dean’s school of business. During making their decision to purchase, the owners received positive information from the seller regarding the copier reliability. The price of the primary copier is $12,000. Terri, one of the owners of JET Copier, received a loan for her family to purchase the copier. After talking to someone from the dean’s office of business, JET Copies discovered that the copier is not as reliable as they thought. To prevent loss of revenue, JET Copies uses several simulations in an attempt to estimate the loss of revenue—repair days, time between breakdowns, and number of copies per day. The price of the second copier is $8,000. If revenue lost for a year is greater than or equal to $8000, then JET should purchase. Below are my calculation after setting up and running simulations based on the information provided within the case study. 1. In Excel, use a suitable method for generating the number of days needed to repair the copier, when it is out of service, according to the discrete distribution shown. The owners of JET Copies decided to purchase a copier similar to the one used in the college of business at State. The company they purchased the copier from touted the copier reliability...
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...JET Copies – Case Description University students James, Ernie and Terri are opening a new copy center business called JET Copies. They borrowed $18,000 from Terrie’s parents to purchase their main copy machine. After the copy machine was purchased Ernie found out from a friend that the copy machine had frequent breakdowns; a breakdown between 1 and 6 weeks and often took 1 – 4 days for repair. In order to keep the business running between repairs the business owners are evaluating whether to purchase an $8,000 back up copy machine. The owners decided that if revenue lost per year was greater than $12,000 the additional copier purchase would be made. JET Copies’ owners are putting together a simulation model to determine whether the purchase of another copy machine is necessary. They have the following information: • Time between breakdowns is 1- 6 weeks with probability of a breakdown increasing the longer the copier went without a breakdown • repair time probabilities Table 1: Probability of the days to repair copier Repair Time (days) Probability 1 0.20 2 0.45 3 0.25 4 0.10 • Loss of revenue during repair of the copier: approx. 2000 – 8000 copies/day at $0.10/copy Again, if revenue lost/year was greater than $12,000 then the purchase of a second copier would be warranted. A simulation model using MicroSoft Excel was run to determine lost revenue due to copier breakdowns. To compute the simulation analysis we will run 1000 random numbers (trials) in a MicroSoft...
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...Jet Copy Simulation Prepared by Joe Miller Prepared for February 7th 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION SUMMARY JET COPY SIMILATION CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS APPENDIX INTRODUCTION The purpose of this report is to examine the feasibility to for Jet Copy to purchase a second copy machine. Based on copies produced and lost with only the use of one copier. In this report I will use data from a simulation to assist in the determination of an additional copier for Jet Copy. As a reminder that this is a random simulation and the information in the simulation will only assist between when the test stop and 52 week will not have great affect on the outcome of the in the decision making. The simulation that was run was base on a 52 week scenario. The actual results are based on 51 week trial. The difference between the 51 week test and the actual 52 weeks will not have any great impact on the recommendation. ------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY This report creates a simulation that shows one possible outcome for Jet Copier when there one copier is out for repair for up to 4 days. It will also aid in the decision to ad d or not to add a second copier. This report will answer the following questions: 1. Using Excel to generate the number of days needed to repair the copier. 2. Using Excel to generate the interval between successive breakdowns according to continuous distribution. 3. Using Excel, use a suitable method to...
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...JET Copies Case Problem Assignment #1 MAT540, Strayer University Assignment#1: JET Copies Case Problem According to the discrete distrubution, the number of days (y) needed to repair the copier is as follows (where “R2” is a random value in the excel sheet between and 0 and 1): 0 < R2 < .2, then it takes 1 day .2 < R2 < .65, then it takes 2 days .65 < R2 < .9, then it takes 3 days .9 < R2 < 1, then it takes 4 days James estimated that the time between break-downs was probably between 0 and 6 weeks, with the probability increasing the longer the copier went without breaking down. For simulating the interval between successive breakdowns: f(x) = x/18, 0 ≤ x ≤ 6 weeks where x= weeks between break-downs f(x) = x²/36, 0 ≤ x ≤ 6 weeks where x= weeks between break-downs f(x) = random number1 (R1) = x²/36 x = 6*sqrt(R1) 3. For simulating the lost revenue every day that the copier is out of service, select a random number (R3) between 2000 and 8000, since it is estimated that they would see between 2000 and 8000 copies a day. They will charge $0.10 per copy. Therefore, the lost revenue for each day the copier is out of service is equal to R3*.1*repair time. The amound of revunue lost is approxiamtely $12,934.80. Please see the attached excel sheet. In order to estimate the revenue lost for the one year of operations the simulation has been performed. The estimates indicated that the copies sales were between 2000 to 8000 pieces...
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...Quantitative Methods -MAT 540 JET Copies Case Problem Assignment #1 Days-to-repair Terri was able to gather data from the college which allowed them to develop a table for the probability distribution of the wait for repair services on JET’s copier. To model the probability of wait times in the JET Copies simulation, the JET partners generated a random number representing the probability of an occurrence of a breakdown. They then programmed a VLOOKUP function to match this breakdown probability to the corresponding “Repair Time in Days” column of the table. The result is the simulated time to get repair service for each breakdown occurrence. Interval between breakdowns The James, Ernie, and Terri purchased a copier just like the one used at their college office. When Ernie talked with someone in the dean’s office at State, he was told that the University’s copier broke down frequently often for 1 to 4 days. The partners became worried that their machine would also frequently break down. Although they could not get an exact probability distribution, James was able to determine that breakdowns occurred between 0 and 6 weeks apart. The probability of a breakdown increased as time passed. To model the time between breakdowns in their simulation, JET created a list of random numbers. Next, they applied the probability function f(x) = 2x/a2 0≤ x ≤ a. For this situation, the formula used is x = a √r. Since James estimated breakdowns occur zero to six weeks apart...
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...Assignment #1: JET Copies Case Problem Read the “JET Copies” Case Problem on pages 678-679 of the text. Using simulation estimate the loss of revenue due to copier breakdown for one year, as follows: 1. In Excel, use a suitable method for generating the number of days needed to repair the copier, when it is out of service, according to the discrete distribution shown. 2. In Excel, use a suitable method for simulating the interval between successive breakdowns, according to the continuous distribution shown. 3. In Excel, use a suitable method for simulating the lost revenue for each day the copier is out of service. 4. Put all of this together to simulate the lost revenue due to copier breakdowns over 1 year to answer the question asked in the case study. 5. In a word processing program, write a brief description/explanation of how you implemented each component of the model. Write 1-2 paragraphs for each component of the model (days-to-repair; interval between breakdowns; lost revenue; putting it together). 6. Answer the question posed in the case study. How confident are you that this answer is a good one? What are the limits of the study? Write at least one paragraph. Case Problem James Banks was standing in line next to Robin Cole at Klecko’s Copy Center, waiting to use one of the copy machines. “ Gee, Robin, I hate this,” he said. “We have to drive all the way over here from Southgate and then wait in line to use these copy machines...
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...The simulation of the jet copier is to help determine if a purchase of second copier is necessary now. In making the best decision, we need to create the best case scenario of potential future events relating to what could happen if the copier was out of commission. Some of what we do know is that the least to the most about of days the copier could be down. This plays a very important part, as we need to determine how much it would cost to not be able to supply the service of copying to the customers. Also, it is equally important to understand that in case of the copier being down, how long it would take to repair and the cost, in lost revenue that would respond to that. In this simulation we used the following information, to help determine the probability of days to repair. Probability (y) | Repair Time(days) | 0.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 2 | 0.25 | 3 | 0.1 | 4 | Secondly, we determined the average amount of time between breakdowns, in order to get this number we had to do a few things, first we had to determine the x value, for this formula ( 6*sqrt of r). The r in this equation was determined by using excel and generating random numbers samples. When substituting this number in for r, we found what we considered to be the time between breakdowns. Using this number to determine time between breakdowns helped up to generate the potential number of days that it took to repair the copier. After, getting all that information, we then used our final formula to help...
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...JET Copies Case Problem LaTonya Crutcher Dr. Emeka Dunu, MAT 540 6/3/13 In the JET Copies Case Problem the probability function of time between repairs is the one of the issues and the other is the loss of revenue if they do not purchase the new copier. We were asked to generate a random value for computation of times between breakdowns. Using these random numbers and the linear formula SQRT(R1)*6, which represents the slope and probability function for breakdown intervals, we were able to compute the interval between breakdowns. The amount of days in repair was one of the issues James, Ernie and Terry needed information. For each day the printer is down is equal to lost revenues and profits for their business. Using a probability look up chart based on assigned probabilities enabled us to randomly simulate the amount of time the printer would have been down or idle and losing print time. This is also another area that a broader random simulation may have helped us end at a more accurate and acceptable outcome. These values were cumulated and the total number of days in repair was calculated. A third set of random numbers were generated to use in our formula y=((6*R3)+2)*100 to calculate a dollar amount of lost revenues per day. These values were summed to get the number of annual lost revenues so that a decision could be made about purchasing a new copier. By formulating the range of random numbers to asses if there is a great need to purchase another copier...
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...Assignment Week 3 Brief Description JET Copies was created to solve a problem of resource scarcity, James, Ernie, and Terri all students were having challenges trying to get their copies. They were traveling to another building outside of theirs and several students were using the same copier. James thought they could make a lot of money if they purchased a copier and charged students 0.10 cents a copy. So James, Ernie, and Terri borrowed $18,000.00 dollars from their parents and went into business. Simulation Estimate I took the example from page 647 in our text and used it as a template to create my model. I used the discrete distribution table shown on page 679 to gather my information that stipulated repair times in days with the corresponding probability. The probability distribution was located on page 679 as well and gave a 0 to 6 week timeframe between break downs. I used the continuous probability function in excel to show the values. To compute the loss of revenue over 1 year I calculated all values then divided them by the cumulative total divided by 52 weeks for an average annual cost of $ 58,231 dollars. Case Problem Question Should JET buy a backup copier for $ 8000.00 dollars so they do not lose revenue when their main copier is being fixed? Yes they should purchase a backup copier because the revenue lost will significantly impact their copy business. My confidence level is very solid, in the fact that a backup copier is a wise investment given the...
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...JET Copies Case Problem In analyzing the case, JET Copies Case Problem, the following categories will be addressed: Model number of days to repair 1. In Excel, use a suitable method for generating the number of days needed to repair the copier, when it is out of service, according to the discrete distribution shown. JET copies needs to know the number of days they need to repair, when the copy machine is out of service. Using the given table, there are three columns of probability, repair time and cumulative. I used the figures given in case problem for probability and repair time days but for the cumulative column we started at 0.00 cumulative, then added the 0.20 to that to get the cumulative for day 2. For each probability subsequent to the previous we added, so for the 0.45 probability we added the 0.20 to get 0.65. Then repeating the same for the rest of probabilities, after 0.65 the cumulative resulted in 0.90. Then we used the table with ten columns. In the first column starting at A5, the formula entered was the =RAND() function to create random number for the first cell. That function formula was then dragged down to the below cells and locked to have the values be fixed. In the next column, I use the numbers copied from my first column. Then in the G5 column, we entered the function VLOOKUP to find the number of days needed to repair =VLOOKUP(F5,Lookup,2) and dragged the cell to have the same formula for the below cells in the column. Look up, in the...
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...Assignment #1: JET Copies Case Problem Strayer University MAT540: Quantitative Methods October 29, 2013 JET Copies is a company designed to alleviate a longer commute and longer wait time, and possibly have a more cost efficient method for the college students to make copies. The three students James, Ernie, and Terri decided to go into business together with a copying business initiative. Considering what was ahead of the new business, for example, possible machine downtime and days to repair the copier, they had to determine the average number of days that it would take for them to acquire a repair team to fix the machine in the event that it broke down. As discovered, the average time for repair was between one and four days. In order to calculate the average, a probability distribution was developed using Microsoft Excel. From there, the cumulative probability was obtained by adding the probability, P(x), from the previously itemized probabilities where the cumulative summation of a probability is always equal to one (1) or 100%. A random number formula, =RAND(), was plugged into the Microsoft Excel desired cell, in this situation, (H4), which generated a random range of numbers that are greater than or equal to zero and less than one. The interim time between breakdowns were achieved simply by soliciting the experience several staff members in the college of business who were familiar with frequency of the copier’s inconsistent behavior. It was estimated that the...
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...JET Copies: The Decision to Purchase a Backup Copier Businesses are continually faced with difficult and challenging decisions, especially those regarding revenue and whether or not to spend money on situations that may or may not occur, based on speculation or perception. There may be several techniques a business can employ to analyze if perceived investments will produce a desired return and subsequently, profit. Simulation is an analytical process that supports business planning objectives. By utilizing models to support this process, business leaders and managers can forecast potential expenditures and better prepare for roadblocks that can serve as organizational disadvantages. JET Copies is a company facing a dilemma of whether or not it would be cost effective to purchase a second copier in case repair times concerning the original one would result in a loss of revenue. To further analyze their case, I will model the number of days to repair the original copier, the number of weeks between breakdowns, and lost revenue due to breakdowns for a period of 1 year. Additionally, by combining all the modeling components, I will provide a detailed summary to support their decision of whether to invest in the additional copier, and do so with a high level of confidence. I will begin by modeling the number of days to repair. To begin the simulation technique chosen for this case, I first utilized the information communicated by Terri speculating that it will take...
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...JET Copier Case Analysis In the case study for Jet copies three students are contemplating the benefits of opening a copy business in their town. They are also trying to decide whether or not it would be a good investment to purchase a second copier, in case their main copy machine breaks down. The students have already purchased an $18000 copier to start their copy business. They are trying to determine if they should get a loan to purchase a smaller $8000 copier as back-up. The students estimated that they would sell between 2,000 and 8,000 copies per day at 10 cents per copy. The students determined that the time between main copier breakdowns would be from 0 to 6 weeks. The students determined that if the revenue loss for a 1 year period was greater than or equal to $12000, they would purchase the backup copier. A simulation was created to estimate the amount of revenue that would be lost if they did not have a back-up copy machine. The first step in creating the simulation was to determine the time between repairs. The probability function for time between repairs is x = 6*square root (sqrt) of r, where r is the generated random number. First, a random number was generated. The next step to determine the time between repairs was to use the probability function of x=6*sqrt of r. The results of this calculation were placed in the second column of the excel worksheet. A third column was created to determine the cumulative time between the breakdowns. The same process continued:...
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