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John Deere 2010 Analysis

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Integrated Company Analysis John Deere

Group A9
Eric Dolan Adam Plunkett Nina Rozell Tom Schar Kan Zuo

Agenda

• Company Profile
– Financial Overview

• Recommendations • Conclusions

COMPANY PROFILE: FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

Overview of Financial Situation
2009 Performance Revenue down 18.7% Gross profit down 21% Earnings per share down 56%
2010 Projections
Ag. sector growth of 14% Const. & For. segment to grow in double digits over the next 3 years

Overall 2010 revenue down just 0.5%

COMPANY PROFILE: FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

2009 Net Sales By Product Category
Ag. & Turf Divisions
Other 11% Turf 9%

Small Ag. 35%

Large Ag. 45%

John Deere. (2009, November 25). 8-K. Retrieved from http://www.capitaliq.com

COMPANY PROFILE: FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

Business Cycle
$1,000

Net Income by Quarter
(millions)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

$745 $604 $500 $257 $128 $$142 $477 $624

$764 $472

2001
$(500)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Accounts Receivable by Quarter
(millions)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

$5,000 $4,422 $4,089 $4,000 $3,561 $3,747 $3,964 $4,426 $4,424

$4,675 $4,425

$3,000

$2,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

COMPANY PROFILE: FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

Valuation

• Discounted Cash Flow – Projected revenue growth for business segments – Net Present Value of John Deere stock: $51.18 – $53.22 • John Deere’s 12/11/09 market close: $52.44 • Stock Repurchase Program

Recommendation: Monitor price for buyback opportunity
COMPANY PROFILE: FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

Agenda

• Company Profile
– Competitive Analysis

• Recommendations • Conclusions

Competitive Analysis

COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

Historical Stock Prices
Indexed Stock Prices
(index: 100)
450
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1/2/2004 7/2/2004 1/2/2005 7/2/2005 1/2/2006 7/2/2006 1/2/2007 7/2/2007 1/2/2008 7/2/2008 1/2/2009 7/2/2009

DE CAT CNH KUB

COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

Capital Structure of Key Industry Players
Total Capital
John Deere
(year-end: 10/31)

Debt %
83.6% 77.5% 75.3% 40.2% 35.4% 34.8% 85.4% 76.2% 79.9% 63.8% 60.5% 55.6%

Equity %
16.4% 22.5% 24.7% 56.1% 60.6% 61.9% 14.6% 23.8% 20.1% 36.2% 39.5% 44.4%

2009 2008 2007 Kubota
(year-end: 3/31)

$29,369.3 $29,008.7 $28,923.4 $11,686.1 $12,130.1 $12,093.0 $41,622.0 $37,312.0 $34,155.0 $17,811.0 $15,938.0 $11,522.0

2009 2008 2007 Caterpillar
(year-end: 12/31)

2008 2007 2006 Case International
(year-end: 12/31)

2008 2007 2006

COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

Profitability
John Deere Caterpillar CNH Global Kubota

Gross Profit Margin
Pre-Tax Profit Margin Net Profit Margin Return on Equity Return on Assets Return on Invested Capital

31.2%
11.0% 7.2% 30.0% 5.3% 7.1%

24.9%
2.1% 3.5% 14.6% 2.1% 3.2%

21.8%
0.2% -0.7% -1.5% -0.4% -0.6%

26.1%
5.2% 3.2% 5.0% 2.2% 2.8%

COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

Market Correlation
Regression Analysis: John Deere vs. S&P 500
(2/1/2004 - 10/1/2009)
30.00%

Competitive Correlations
S&P 500 John Deere 0.73 Caterpillar 0.29 CNH Global 0.04 Kubota 0.11 Corn prices 0.30 0.00 0.05 0.15 Housing starts -0.21 -0.05 -0.22 0.09
John Deere

20.00%

10.00%

0.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00%

-20.00% -15.00% -10.00%

-10.00%

-20.00%

-30.00%

-40.00%

y = 1.6427x + 0.0122 R² = 0.5521 S&P 500

COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

John Deere’s Strategic Direction

“Shareholder Value Added, which has been driving

everyday operations in our company since 2001, reflects our determination to invest in products, projects and businesses that consistently yield returns in excess of an underlying cost of capital. Our primary growth metric is to achieve average, sustainable

SVA gains of 7 percent a year over the business cycle.”

Chairman’s Message. 2008 John Deere Annual Report.

COMPANY PROFILE: SVA

Strategic Recommendations

Short-term strategy Medium-term strategy Long-term strategy

• Monitor price for buyback opportunities • Improve quality of 100 Series Tractor

• Expand operations & sales in Brazil

• Wind energy turbine production

RECOMMENDATIONS

Agenda

• Company Profile • Recommendations
– Channel Strategy

• Conclusions

John Deere Brand
Functional Benefits • Quality • Productivity Aspirational Components • Agricultural Pride • Family Tradition

John Deere creates value in the lives of consumers
CHANNEL STRATEGY

Market Segmentation

• Commercial Farmers

• Landscaping Professionals

• Do-It-Yourselfers
CHANNEL STRATEGY

Distribution Channels

Home Centers

Implement Dealers

CHANNEL STRATEGY

Channel Strategy – Home Centers
Target Consumer • Do-it-Yourselfers • Small Business Owners Retail Channel • More sales • Lower price point • No replacement parts or service • Receive markdown money

CHANNEL STRATEGY

Channel Strategy – Implement Dealers
Target Consumer • Commercial farmers • Landscaping contractors Implement Dealers • Traditional method • Broad assortment products • Replacement parts & service • No mark down money

CHANNEL STRATEGY

John Deere 100 Series Tractors
• • • • Created for placement in Home Center retailers Also carried at Implement Dealers Opening price point 2 year warranty

Consumer Guide® assessment: “Patchy performance in rugged terrain “

Recommendation: Address performance issues to strengthen brand reputation at retail

CHANNEL STRATEGY

Agenda

• Company Profile • Recommendations
– International Expansion

• Conclusions

2008 Revenues by Region

2008 Total Revenues

$28 Billion

John Deere. (2009, November 25). 8-K. Retrieved from http://www.capitaliq.com

INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION

Global Revenues

171% Growth

370% Growth

INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION

Global Operating Profits

283% Growth (U.S.)

683% Growth

INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION

INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION

Growth Projections in South American Market
Agriculture Sales Growth Forecast
South America 15%

Over the next 12 months, John Deere expects agricultural sales to: • Drop 10% in North America • Drop 15% in Western Europe • Grow 15% in South America

North America -10%

Western Europe -15%

John Deere's 4th Quarter Earnings Call Press Release

INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION

Soybean Production
1997: Top 5 Soybean Producing Countries (1000 MT) Rest of the
World 12,583,759 Argentina 11,004,890 Brazil 57,857,200

2007: Top 5 Soybean Producing Countries (1000 MT)

Brazil 26,391,448

119% growth in Brazil

Argentina 47,482,784

United States of America 73,177,000

China 14,736,722 Rest of the World 17,564,081 India 6,463,100 United States of America 72,860,400

China 13,800,147

India 10,968,000

United Nations FAO Database

INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION

Opportunities & Challenges in Brazil
- Machinery imports & demands - Arable land - Climbing corn & soybean yields - Low-interest tractor loan incentives

- Tax rate fluctuations

- Infrastructure & regulation

Recommendation: Pursue production & sales opportunities Brazil

INTERNATIONAL EXPANSION

Agenda

• Company Profile • Recommendations
– Renewable Energy

• Conclusions

Renewable Energy Strategy

Why Wind Energy?

What is John Deere currently doing?

What are the plans for the future?

RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS

The Rural Economics of Wind Energy
“Committed to economic growth

and sustainability of agricultural communities” ‘committed to economic growth and sustainability of agricultural communities’

http://www.deere.com/en_US/renewable_energy/wind_energy/index.html

RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS

Growth Projections for Wind Energy
Wind Energy Growth
1,000 900 Wind Energy Growth (2005 = 100) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2005
3

Projection

837%

300,000

275,000
250,000 225,000 Wind Generation Capacity (MW)

200,000
175,000

378%

150,000

125,000
100,000 75,000

50,000
25,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2006

World Capacity

US Capacity

World Growth

US Growth

RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS

Current Efforts: Components of Wind Energy Strategy

Hardware Reputation Hardware

Financing

Knowledge

RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS

Advantage of Producing Turbines
What if John Deere manufactured its own turbines?

$55,531 per MW or 19.54%
Growth Projection ~15% ~20% ~40% http://www.deere.com/en_US/renewable_energy/wind_energy/landowner.html NPV (millions) $435 $593 $1,145

RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS

Future Efforts: Potential Acquisitions • Proximity of existing John Deere plants • U.S.-based organization

• 1MW turbines
• Capacity matches long-term targets

Recommendation: Acquire wind turbine manufacturer
RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS

Agenda

• Company Profile • Recommendations • Conclusions

Strategic Recommendations

Short-term strategy Medium-term strategy Long-term strategy

• Monitor price for buyback opportunities • Improve quality of 100 Series Tractor

• Expand operations & sales in Brazil

• Wind energy turbine production

RECOMMENDATIONS

Thank You

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