; Kljhgfds

; Kljhgfds

Eur J Population (2007) 23:1–31 DOI 10.1007/s10680-006-9110-6

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002–2052: impact of international migration on population ageing
Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays europeens ´ 2002–2052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population Jakub Bijak Æ Dorota Kupiszewska Æ Marek Kupiszewski Æ Katarzyna Saczuk Æ Anna Kicinger

Received: 8 August 2005 / Accepted: 31 March 2006 / Published online: 2 March 2007 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Abstract Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002–2052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing. Keywords Population projections Æ Labour force projections Æ International migration Æ Population ageing Æ Europe ´ ´ Resume Des projections de population et de population active sont presentees ´ ´ ´ ´ ´ ˆ pour 27 pays Europeens pour la periode 2002–2052, avec un interet particulier pour l’impact de la migration internationale sur la dynamique des populations. A partir de ´ ´ ´ ´ ´ ´ ´ scenarios uniques pour la fecondite, la mortalite et l’activite economique, trois series ` ´ ´ ´ d’hypotheses concernant les flux migratoires sont explorees, en integrant des pre´ ` ´ visions sur les developpements des politiques publiques a la suite de l’elargissement ´ ˆ ´ ˆ de l’Union Europeenne. Les structures par age sont analysees, de meme que des ´ ´ indicateurs de rapports de...

View Full Essay