...Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators Of China Section-2 Group-11 Anup Pandit Gaurav Bhatia Logesh Kumar RC Naveen Kotni Prasun Parashar Ronil Sinha Tuhinadri Sarkar Analysis: Macroeconomic Indicators along with values is provided in the below table Macro Economic Indicators | Value | GDP Growth Rate | 9.1% | IIP Growth Rate | 14% | Agricultural Growth Rate | 4.3% | Fiscal Deficit | 800 billion yuan | Interest Rates | 6.56% | Exports | 180.2 billion USD | Imports | 148.5 billion USD | Current Account Deficit | 59.8 billion USD | Inflation | 7.65% | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.24 trillion USD | GDP Growth Rate: * GDP (purchasing power parity) of china is $11.3 trillion second largest in the world. * Most of the GDP is comprised of the exports. China is an export based economy. * GDP of China rose rapidly over past 33 years, Chinese households do not appear to have shared equally in that growth. * The Growth rate of GDP is averaged at 10% from past 5 years. Even during recession periods china GDP continuously grew at an average rate of 9%. There is a serious concern in the distribution of china’s GDP in which household expenditure and private consumption is low. * Falling share of private consumption and disposable income relative to GDP is largely caused by two main factors: China’s banking policies and the lack of an adequate social safety net. Chinese households put a large share of their savings in domestic banks. ...
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...INTRODUCTION Macroeconomic Variables Macroeconomics is a branch of economics dealing with the performance, structure, behaviour, and decision-making of an economy as a whole, rather than individual markets. This includes national, regional, and global economies. Macroeconomic is a factor that is pertinent to a broad economy at the regional or national level and affects a large population rather than a few select individuals. Macroeconomic factors are key indicators of economic performance and are closely monitored by governments, businesses and consumers. Macroeconomic factors are the factors which affect the wider economy. In other words these factors seem to summarize the picture of economy. Macroeconomic variables include economic output, unemployment, inflation, interest rates, money supply, exchange rate, foreign reserves, savings and investment. Variables used in study: • Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services. Consequently, inflation also reflects erosion in the purchasing power of money – a loss of real value in the internal medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy. A chief measure of price inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index (normally the CPI) over time. A consumer price index (CPI) measures changes in the...
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...Huayi Yu China’s House Price: Affected by Economic Fundamentals or Real Estate Policy? © Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag 2010 Abstract Many theory and empirical literature conclude that house price can reflect economic fundamentals in the long-term. However, by using China’s panel data of 35 main cities stretching from 1998 to 2007, we find that there is no stable relationship between house price and economic fundamentals. House price has deviated upward from the economic fundamentals since government started macro-control of the real estate market. We consider that the mechanism between the house price and economic fundamentals is distorted by China’s real estate policy, especially its land policy. Meanwhile the policy itself is an important factor in explaining the changes of China’s house price. Then we estimate the dynamic panel data model on house price and the variables which are controlled by real estate policy. The result shows: land supply has negative effects on house price; financial mortgages for real estate have positive effects on house price; and the area of housing sold and the area of vacant housing, which reflects the supply and demand of the housing market, has negative effects on house price. We also find some differences in house price influence factor between eastern and mid-western cities. Finally, we propose policy suggestions according to the empirical results. Keywords house price, economic fundamental, real estate policy, dynamic panel...
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...Wal-Mart and the U.S. Economy Dr. Robert Jantzen Professor of Economics Iona College Dr. Donn Pescatrice Professor of Economics Iona College Dr. Andrew Braunstein Professor of Business Economics Hagan School of Business Iona College Corresponding Author: Dr. Donn Pescatrice Iona College Department of Economics 715 North Avenue New Rochelle, NY 10801 (914)-637-2729 (dpescatrice@iona.edu) March, 2008 Wal-Mart and the U.S. Economy ABSTRACT The Wal-Mart company, the world’s largest retailer and second-largest corporation, is a dominant U.S. business. This study investigates whether there are significant long-run relationships between the business of Wal-Mart and the overall U.S. economy as measured by an array of traditional macro-level variables. Cointegration analysis reveals that Wal-Mart sales generally move counter to overall economic conditions, dampened in more prosperous economic periods and buoyed in more sluggish economic environments. Consequently, trends in Wal-Mart sales may serve as a rather non-traditional contrarian economic bellwether. Keywords Wal-Mart . macroeconomy . cointegration . bellwether JEL Classifications E32 . L81 . M21 WAL-MART AND THE U.S. ECONOMY Introduction The Wal-Mart corporation has come under media scrutiny for a myriad of reasons in recent years. It continues to be the focus...
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...F.Y.B.A. Paper – I Economic Theory (Micro Economics-I) SECTION – I Module 1 : Introduction Meaning, nature, scope, significance and limitations of micro economics. Ceteris Paribus – use and significance. Concept and types of equilibrium : stable, unstable, static and dynamic equilibrium – partial equilibrium and general equilibrium, positive economics and normative economics, managerial economics. Basic concepts – wealth, welfare and scarcity. Basic tools of economics analysis (equations and functions, graphs and diagrams, slope and intercepts) Module 2 : Consumers Behaviour and Demand Marishallian Approach : Equi-marginal utility, Law of demand – Determinants of demand. Elasticity of demand and its measurement. Price – Income – Cross and Promotional elasticity of demand. Consumer’s Surplus. Hicksian Approach : Indifference curves – properties of Indifference Curve, Consumer’s Equilibrium, Price effect, Income effect and substitution effect – Derivation of demand from Price Consumption Curve (PCC) – Giffen’s paradox. Samuelson Approach : Revealed Preference Theory. Module 3 : Production and Cost Analysis Concept of production function : short run and long run – Cobb – Douglass production function. isoquants – iso-cost line – producer’s equilibrium. Law of variable proportion and Law of returns to scale – Economies of scale – Economies of scope. Concepts of costs : Money and real cost, Opportunity cost, Social cost, Private cost – Derivation of short run and long run cost curves–...
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...The term Macro has been taken from the Latin word Macros which means big. The field of economics that studies the behavior of the aggregate economy. Macroeconomics examines economy-wide phenomena such as changes in unemployment, national income, rate of growth, gross domestic product, inflation and price levels. Macroeconomics Concerns | Production | Prices | Income | Employment | NationalProduction/OutputTotal Industrial OutputGross Domestic ProductGrowth of Output | Aggregate Price LevelConsumer pricesProducer PricesRate of Inflation | National IncomeTotal wages and salariesTotal corporate profits | Employment andUnemployment in theEconomyTotal number of jobsUnemployment rate | Therefore, as is clear from the above, the following issues/subjects define the scope of Macro Economics: 1. Aggregates of national income and its determination 2. Theories of Income and Employment. 3. Theory of Money and Banking. 4. Fiscal Theory. 5. Balance of Payment. Scope and Importance of Macro Economics Macro Economics is of much theoretical and practical importance. Let us see what are the importance and the scope where macro economics are being used. 1. To Understand the working of the Economy The study of macro economics variables is requisite for considerate the operation of the financial system. Our main economic complexities are associated with the performance of total income, irredundant and the normal price scale in the fiscal. These variables are geometrically...
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...Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on the Stock Market Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on the Stock Market Arunabha Dhar (Roll No. 008) Gaurav Bhatt (Roll No. 017) Amartya Ray (Roll No. 067) Bodhisatva Basu (Roll No. 075) Rahul Jain (Roll No. 094) Arunabha Dhar (Roll No. 008) Gaurav Bhatt (Roll No. 017) Amartya Ray (Roll No. 067) Bodhisatva Basu (Roll No. 075) Rahul Jain (Roll No. 094) Contents UNDERSTANDING ON RESEARCH PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION & DEFINITION 3 ABSTRACT 3 INTRODUCTION 3 LITERATURE REVIEW 6 GAP in Research 8 MOTIVATION 8 DATA COLLECTION/SAMPLE SELECTION 9 HYPOTHESIS 10 Research Methodology 10 FINDINGS 11 CONTRIBUTION TO LITERATURE 23 CONCLUSIONS 23 References 25 UNDERSTANDING ON RESEARCH PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION & DEFINITION Relationship between macroeconomic variables and broad market index: A causal relationship between Nifty CNX and macroeconomic variables in India ABSTRACT The relationship between macroeconomic variables and broad market index by now are well documented in the literature. However a void in the literature relates to examining the causal relationship between Nifty CNX and macroeconomic variables such as FDI, FPI, weighted average lending rate (WALR), GDP and oil import in India and correlation among the macro variables. INTRODUCTION Globalization of Indian economy post liberalization has been spurred by capital and stock investment in terms of FDI & FPI. Indian stock market both securities...
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...loan-level econometric models for default, prepayment, and severity. These models are integrated through common dependence on local macro-economic factors, which can be either simulated at national, state, and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) levels or input in the form of stress scenarios. This integration produces correlation in behaviors of loans across the portfolio. The simulation incorporates a multi-step Monte Carlo approach and generates monthly P&I cash flows and losses which enables the model to be used for ALM applications or to be combined with an external cash flow waterfall tool and used for simulation of RMBS transactions. Scenario and stress testing is also done in a multiperiod framework. Furthermore, the model accommodates both loan-level and portfolio-level mortgage insurance. The resulting tool can be used for analyzing the credit risk in both portfolios of whole loans and RMBS transactions. © 2011 Moody’s Research Labs. All rights reserved. Many past and present members of the current research group made significant contributions to the building and implementation of the models underpinning the Mortgage Portfolio Analyzer. Xufeng (Norah) Qian and Weijian Liang helped build the prepayment models. Weijian Liang also helped estimating the severity model. Jordan Mann helped model MI. Pouyan Mashayekh helped model the macro economic factors. Samuel Ring,...
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...BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy Glenn D. Rudebusch Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco January 2010 Working Paper 2010-01 http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2010/wp10-01bk.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy Glenn D. Rudebusch∗ Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Abstract During the past decade, much new research has combined elements of finance, monetary economics, and macroeconomics in order to study the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the economy. In this survey, I describe three different strands of such interdisciplinary macro-finance term structure research. The first adds macroeconomic variables and structure to a canonical arbitrage-free finance representation of the yield curve. The second examines bond pricing and bond risk premiums in a canonical macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The third develops a new class of arbitrage-free term structure models that are empirically tractable and well suited to macro-finance investigations. This article is based on a keynote lecture to the 41st annual conference of the Money, Macro, and Finance Research Group on September 8,...
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...The Nature and Scope of Macroeconomics by Smriti Chand Macro Economics The Nature and Scope of Macroeconomics! Introduction: The term ‘macro’ was first used in economics by Ragner Frisch in 1933. But as a methodological approach to economic problems, it originated with the Mercantilists in the 16th and 17th centuries. They were concerned with the economic system as a whole. In the 18th century, the Physiocrats adopted it in their Table Economies to show the ‘circulation of wealth’ (i.e., the net product) among the three classes represented by farmers, landowners and the sterile class. Malthus, Sismondi and Marx in the 19th century dealt with macroeconomic problems. Walras, Wicksell and Fisher were the modern contributors to the development of macroeconomic analysis before Keynes. Certain economists, like Cassel, Marshall, Pigou, Robertson, Hayek and Hawtrey, developed a theory of money and general prices in the decade following the First World War. But credit goes to Keynes who finally developed a general theory of income, output and employment in the wake of the Great Depression. Contents: Nature of Macroeconomics Difference between Microeconomics and Macroeconomics Dependence of Microeconomic Theory on Macroeconomics Dependence of Macroeconomics on Microeconomic Theory Macro Statics, Macro Dynamics and Comparative Statics Transition from Microeconomics to Macroeconomics Stock and Flow Concepts 1. Nature of Macroeconomics:________________________________________ ...
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...Research Proposal Impact of Oil Price Fluctuation on the Macro Economy Von Lamey Eastern New Mexico University December 3, 2013 Table of Contents Introduction……………………………………………………………………3 Review of Literature…………………………………………………………..5 Theory…………………………………………………………………………15 Application…………………………………………………………………….18 Summary & Conclusion……………………………………………………….20 Tables…………………………………………………………………………..22 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………24 1. Introduction Oil price fluctuations have affected the people and economies of the U.S. for most of the twentieth century. The commodity has seen minor changes and major fluctuations during this period. Major price changes within a short timeframe are called shocks. The research I propose will attempt to answer the question: What is the impact of changing oil prices on the macro economy of a country? Research has demonstrated oil price fluctuations do impact economies as well as supply of and demand for the commodity. This influence on macroeconomic activity generated symmetric movement between price and many macroeconomic indices in the 1970's. However, after 1982, macroeconomic indices did not demonstrate the same proclivity to react to oil price movement. Information spreads almost instantly with the emergence of the internet. This expedient movement of news has led to an evolving trend of speculation which may or may not be beneficial to commodity pricing. One may infer that the recent prevalence...
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...|VI Learning activity questions: Scope of Managerial Economics | | | | | |1. What is managerial economics all about? | | | |Managerial economics applies economic theory and methods to business and administrative decision making. Managerial economics | |prescribes rules for improving managerial decisions also helps managers recognize how economic forces affect organizations and | |describes the economic consequences of managerial behavior. It links traditional economics with the decision sciences to develop | |vital tools for managerial decision making. Managerial economics identifies ways to efficiently achieve goals. For example, suppose| |a small business seeks rapid growth to reach a size that permits efficient use of national media advertising. Managerial economics | |can be used to identify pricing and production strategies to help meet this short-run objective quickly and effectively. | | ...
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...making in an organization is influenced by environmental complexity and volatility. There are many variables in a firm’s external environment which strategic managers must be aware of. First and foremost, a firm’s external environment consists of variables and trends that do not directly touch on the short run activities of the firm but can, and often do influence its long-run decisions. These trends are found in the firm’s societal environment; also known as the macro-environment and they include economic, technological, political-legal and socio-cultural forces that influence decision making in organizations. Secondly, there are variables in a firm’s external environment which directly affect the organization and are in turn affected by it. These are found in the task environment; also known as the micro-environment. Daft (2008) views the task environment as the sectors with which an organization interacts directly and that have a direct impact on the organizations ability to achieve its goals. A corporation’s task environment can be seen as the industry within which it operates. The variables in the task environment include suppliers, customers, competitors, creditors, employees, trade unions and governments. Many researchers argue that developments in the societal or macro-environment affect firm’s through their task environment. The economic environment consists of macro level factors related to the means of production and...
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...Part A Perceiving through different factors and variables that could have an impact on an organization’s marketing capability, GNC would need to cursorily examine it’s marketing environment. (Evans, M 1988) highlights the rules and regulations, effects of governments, changes in technology and the implications of societal changes as the basis of marketing environment, which ultimately influence impinging on marketing. These forces fall within the macro environment of PESTL frame. As the name indicates, macro environmental factors are the forces prevailing in the external environment of the organisation. Macro environmental variables include political, economical, socio-cultural, technological, and legal forces, having bearing on the industry and business players (Popkin, B.M Duffey, K & Gordon Larsen, P 2005) Business firms and industries have no control over such factors and thus are bound to adapt and act in accordance with macro environmental forces in order to exist and sustain in the marketplace. Thus, these variables would be considered as a ramification to such a supplementary industry, which in this case is “GNC”. POLITICAL: Political factors are one of the major macro environmental force affecting multi vitamin industries and related business firms. It takes into account legislations, market regulations, government stability and trade agreements (Mashhadi, AM & Ijaz-Ur-Rehman, Q 2012). Australian government has formulated quite strict and confined set of regulations...
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...應 用 經 濟 論 叢 ， 89 期 ， 民 國 100 年 6 月 −153− The Dynamics Analysis and Simulation of the Macro Economic Behavior of Taiwan’s Invigorating Economy Consumption Voucher Wen-Chin Wei∗ Abstract Given the severe global economic downturn, countries are using a variety of possible economic policies to try to help their economies recover. This study adopts system dynamics from the dynamic perspective to investigate how Taiwan’s decision to issue time-limited consumption vouchers will influence macro economical behaviors. The simulation led to following primary results. First, in regard to the highest marginal propensity to consume (MPC = 0.3) and the lowest substitution rate of consumption (SR = 0.6741), the distribution of the consumption voucher will generate the biggest multiplier coefficient (0.6830) and Y (GDP). Second, as SR increases by 1%, the multiplier effect decreases by 0.44%. Third, the contribution percentages of consumption vouchers on the first, second, third, and the accumulated total of these three quarters of private consumption in 2009 ranged from 2.13-2.55, 0.25-0.30, 0.19-0.22, and 0.86-1.02 of a percentage, respectively. Meanwhile, the contribution percentage of consumption vouchers in the first, second, third and the accumulated total of these three quarters of GDP in 2009 ranged from 1.36-1.63, 0.15-0.18, 0.11-0.13, and ∗ Assistant Professor, Department of Public Finance & Taxation in National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, Taiwan, Republic...
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